{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-8d35115e-767c-5a72-97a9-3c2b7c9cba27","publishedAt":"2017-10-30T05:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-85a4d0abac5b6b385f87178752d825027203fd36-2000x835-png"},"alt":"Yasmin Sachee (right) and Cameron Khansarinia won last year’s UC Presidential election, in line with HODP’s predictions."},"title":"4 Keys to Winning the UC Presidential Election","slug":{"current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"204e467f1c50","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"204e467f1c500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven reflection on what worked — and what didn’t — in the 2016 Undergraduate Council campaign."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The campaign for President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council kicks off this week! At the time of writing, "},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b1","_type":"span","marks":["634a8da32e48"],"text":"three tickets have thrown their hats in the ring"},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":": Catherine Zhang & Nick Boucher, Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, and Conor Healy & Parth Thakker. It’s shaping up to be a competitive race."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"634a8da32e48","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeNa6e1xt9D8oXnYv8G6C7B9xY3WQvYiN8kiq9IyISkrduNfw/viewform"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1982c24f70e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1982c24f70e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So what can the tickets do to set themselves apart?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ceb31331e51d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d1","_type":"span","marks":["fd42ab003c3c"],"text":"the Harvard Open Data Project (HODP) successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential election"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and in doing so, we gathered data to form hypotheses about what strategies correlated with a ticket’s electoral success. "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d3","_type":"span","marks":["ef621d081710"],"text":"Chris Kuang of HODP provided a detailed analysis of the results"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Here, we’ll recap our biggest findings and how this year’s candidates can use them to their advantage."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fd42ab003c3c","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEunJDu","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:49Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:29:48Z","body":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since embarking on our quest to "},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a1","_type":"span","marks":["6621be4e2cc3"],"text":"use data to predict the results of Harvard’s 2016 Undergraduate Council election"},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", we at the Harvard Open Data Project have learned just how many considerations go into a prediction. Over the past three days, we have collected thousands of data points, both qualitative and quantitative, for our team to analyze."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6621be4e2cc3","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"24de6116146a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"24de6116146a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our election prediction project, dubbed SixteenThirtySix, has been an exciting foray into the world of electoral politics, and we are excited to be sharing the results of the "},{"_key":"24de6116146a1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first-ever polling and predictions project for student government elections at Harvard."},{"_key":"24de6116146a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"97bb8638b369","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"97bb8638b3690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The following four tickets of presidential and vice-presidential candidates appeared on the ballot this week:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ad39ecd65e56","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ad39ecd65e560","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Scott Ely ’18 and Evan Bonsall ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3546e7c4f181","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3546e7c4f1810","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Eduardo Gonzalez ’18 and Alex Popovski ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27ca93e01521","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27ca93e015210","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"094afe59cc75","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"094afe59cc750","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Grant Solomon ’18 and Alexander Moore ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"368170e99b26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"368170e99b260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the past three days, SixteenThirtySix analyzed many "},{"_key":"368170e99b261","_type":"span","marks":["d88b38ffa037"],"text":"different quantitative and qualitative metrics"},{"_key":"368170e99b262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for each of the four tickets. Below, we discuss each factor in detail before arriving at our final prediction."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d88b38ffa037","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5580e478486f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5580e478486f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Presence"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Official Campaign Pages"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In a day and time where it seems that almost everything is at the tap of a finger or click of a mouse, it is no surprise that campaigns prioritized social media presence. With the exception of Grant and Alexander, each of the remaining three tickets curated polished campaign pages on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d7669cb9298","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d7669cb92980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These Facebook pages serve as avenues where the candidates can campaign, share policy positions, and publicize endorsements."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d6da75561888","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Likes: Official Campaign Pages"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f972a32d96e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Likes drive page views. Page views generate engagement. Pages on Facebook with higher totals of likes appear on more News Feeds and Timelines, thus allowing campaigns to spread their message to a broader audience. Likes also may be a good indicator of support in the undergraduate body. "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e51","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"In this important battle,"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e52","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e53","_type":"span","marks":["strong","15b9a9308e88"],"text":"Yaz & Cam for UC"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e54","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e55","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"hold a wide lead, with more “likes” on their Facebook page than those of the other three tickets combined."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"15b9a9308e88","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/yazandcam/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Personal “Endorsements”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Putting the “social” in “social media,” the same three campaigns devised filters or themes that allowed their supporters to publicly share their support with their friends and followers. The three front-running campaigns all harnessed custom overlays that allowed individuals to show support on their own profile pictures."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1e26008d119b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-926dc05fbd3b3369cc38029928b8cf58ba9915fd-1489x741-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Examples of custom campaign overlays (Left: Yaz and Cam, Right: Scott and Evan)"},{"_key":"f94e8bde1862","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94e8bde18620","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to the custom frames, Eduardo and Alex chose a more personal route, featuring hand-written whiteboard messages of what supporters wanted to see in “Our Harvard” — the campaign’s official slogan."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aeea9e48e78b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0fc691727eeb36fc188775fe1d3d6be2a442bd53-1490x592-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Whiteboards and custom frames — Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"f8db9462d341","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f8db9462d3410","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"\nIn studying the number of individual “endorsements”— which we define as a public profile picture change with an overlay or whiteboard — we at SixteenThirtySix were able to get a sense of popular sentiment within the student body."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"960ba5b36d95","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b0d9164f38dfadb71cc7fd3641b5543901ea5652-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"2620b03bd3a6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0bd2d4ca809f0259a1a5ca284f9bf667381e595c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Mean and median likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"57eb34f192df","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"57eb34f192df0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Yaz and Cam left the rest of the field in the dust in terms of the sheer level of engagement with individual “endorsements.” This enabled their campaign to reach a larger audience and attract higher levels of name recognition and familiarity. These all translated into increased perceived support and, most likely, more votes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ade1302fc632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ade1302fc6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex, as well as Scott and Evan, made up some ground in terms of mean and median likes, which implies higher enthusiasm among their respective supporters than the number of total likes might suggest, but "},{"_key":"ade1302fc6321","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam still maintained a healthy lead across all of our social media metrics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ba29bbd9c508","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ba29bbd9c5080","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At this point in our analysis, the data suggested that three tickets (Yaz and Cam; Eduardo and Alex; and Scott and Evan) have the social media support necessary for a serious bid for the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency. Grant and Alexander had a minimal presence on Facebook, consisting of a single “hype video” with 592 views. Their candidacy hinged on their outsider perspective, as neither candidate on the ticket has any UC experience. Unfortunately for them, their lack of a social media presence likely significantly hinders their chances of winning the Presidency."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a797f91c63b0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a797f91c63b00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, Yaz and Cam’s dominant social media presence offers them a unique advantage over the other campaigns."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"550ea7710a82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"550ea7710a820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"dca12af5ddf7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dca12af5ddf70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Organizations"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"6a855b34e14d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6a855b34e14d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Some organizations on campus have come out in support of a certain campaign that they feel aligns most with their interests or values. Most notably, Eduardo/Alex and Yaz/Cam have received several prominent endorsements, including:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex: "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb1","_type":"span","marks":["2a875a18d97a"],"text":"Concilio Latino"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb3","_type":"span","marks":["8c6ff28429eb"],"text":"Fuerza Latina"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", QSA, "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb5","_type":"span","marks":["em","c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb6","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb7","_type":"span","marks":["c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Editorial Board"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb8","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb9","_type":"span","marks":["edb64e5a0e1c"],"text":"Latinas Unidas"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb11","_type":"span","marks":["5aab3da3a633"],"text":"Act on a Dream"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb12","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and the African Students Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"2a875a18d97a","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=916149108485542&id=126642857436175"},{"_key":"8c6ff28429eb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/harvardfuerzalatina/posts/642779945902981"},{"_key":"c2c465bb2454","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"},{"_key":"edb64e5a0e1c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1607762399249968&set=a.548493615176857.139535.100000486701224&type=3&theater"},{"_key":"5aab3da3a633","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/actonadream/posts/1499529473396467"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95f291852450","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95f2918524500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yaz and Cam: "},{"_key":"95f2918524501","_type":"span","marks":["eac0f522dd4d"],"text":"Asian-American Association"},{"_key":"95f2918524502","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", Association of Black Harvard Women, Nigerian Students Association, and the Iranian Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"eac0f522dd4d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/fAAAmily/posts/1196058283798420"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex’s ticket has been widely praised by many minority cultural organizations for being the only ticket to consider the plight of undocumented students at Harvard on their platform, an increasingly important matter under the incoming Trump Administration."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c98524f25068","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c98524f250680","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When weighing endorsement data, SixteenThirtySix considered the potential “reach” each statement of support carried, which we assumed to be proportional to the number of members on an endorsing organization’s email list (as most endorsements were announced over email). During this UC election cycle, board members of organizations have been actively campaigning for candidates by sending emails over pub-lists, speaking during meetings, and posting on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ca89819d98d0","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Membership of Endorsing Organizations"},{"_key":"a83d133931c6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a83d133931c60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As visualized above, "},{"_key":"a83d133931c61","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"a83d133931c62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" lead in this metric. However, SixteenThirtySix cannot account for “member overlap” between endorsing organizations; it is wholly possible that one student can be double- or even triple-counted in the above graph if he or she belongs to multiple organizations that have issued endorsements. Counterbalancing this is the "},{"_key":"a83d133931c63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"a83d133931c65","_type":"span","marks":["db85c04a7ccb"],"text":"editorial board endorsement"},{"_key":"a83d133931c66","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" of Eduardo and Alex as “stand[ing] above the rest.” The "},{"_key":"a83d133931c67","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c68","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" declined to provide viewership data, but we can imagine that their readership is broad, although not necessarily engaged in the same manner as one would be in an organization."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"db85c04a7ccb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When it comes to organizational endorsements, advantage: Eduardo and Alex."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9a78680540f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9a78680540f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Sitting UC Representatives"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3654da37288c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3654da37288c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The three front-running campaigns are all composed of “establishment” UC figures, all six of whom have served at least two terms on the Council. The presidential candidates have all served as chairs of various UC committees. While we could not directly analyze their experiences working with other members on the Council, we did so indirectly by looking at the number of endorsements each candidate received from their fellow representatives:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"09a10d959a84","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Grant and Alexander’s ticket suffered from the candidates’ lack of connections on the UC. Scott and Evan lead in these endorsements by UC representatives, although it is worth noting that over 40% of those on the Council, including current President Shaiba Rather ‘17 and Vice-President Danny Banks ’17, have declined to state publicly who they are supporting. "},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If the publicly undeclared representatives break along roughly the same proportions as those who have declared their support, Scott and Evan stand to benefit."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b00843cb7ed4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b00843cb7ed40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC members generally have strong networks within upperclassmen Houses or in freshman Yards, and therefore can serve as effective surrogate campaigners."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our Survey"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c5698","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c5f2be0c56980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the course of the voting period, SixteenThirtySix used "},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56981","_type":"span","marks":["7a874a7278b1"],"text":"this poll"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to try and gain a sense of overall student opinion regarding the UC election. While we are fully aware that a Google Form does not rise to the level of professional political polling or to the standards of representative samples, we have no reason to believe that there are systematic biases in the data we have collected. Our poll was “pubbed” over many different email list-servs and house lists in an attempt to reach a diverse and representative subset of the Harvard College student body. Realizing the statistical shortcomings of this methodology, we used the data gathered as a complementary source in our analysis, rather than as a primary source."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"7a874a7278b1","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://goo.gl/forms/VIvxmUHyxnyjkmin1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"11ffe03054bd","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2164d2f650e5d46d9b3f2bd17f622837cfc518f2-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total respondents in favor of each ticket"},{"_key":"e30835f31aae","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b3f6d5b5596d2c2e4c56955ab62e03d35944f75b-1544x460-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Distribution of respondents in favor of each ticket, sorted by grade."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe15","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"234fb2c8fe150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our survey received over 240 responses, which amounts to about 3.5% of the electorate. "},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe151","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam hold a plurality in the popular vote as well as a surprising lead among respondents in the freshman class."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Freshmen, who traditionally have high voter engagement and turnout rates in UC elections, may be the deciding factor in this election. One potential explanation for Yaz and Cam’s success among freshman is their distribution of puzzle pieces across campus and throughout dorms in the Yard, echoing their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d442cc2269f70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Further complicating our quest to predict the election, Undergraduate Council elections are conducted using a "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f71","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"ranked-choice system"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", forgoing more well-known alternatives, including "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f73","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first past the post"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f74","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or the "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f75","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Electoral College."},{"_key":"d442cc2269f76","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Thus, if voters’ first choices result in a neck-and-neck race, the Presidency could be decided on the strength of tickets’ down-ballot performances (i.e. on ballots for which they were not ranked first)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3c013232b2e3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3c013232b2e30","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Our Prediction"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"321e7e1205d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"321e7e1205d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Before we at SixteenThirtySix make our official prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election, we would like to thank those that have made this project possible."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6598c656e095","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6598c656e0950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Data Gathering & Visualization: HODP’s research and development team, Ryan Lee, Michael Zhang, and especially team lead "},{"_key":"6598c656e0951","_type":"span","marks":["e3eefd1bdd28"],"text":"Athena Kan"},{"_key":"6598c656e0952","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"e3eefd1bdd28","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/80289ccba39f?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bad017080a48","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bad017080a480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall Guidance: HODP’s amazing project team leaders (read more about them "},{"_key":"bad017080a481","_type":"span","marks":["d00f37859ff2"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"bad017080a482","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"!), including "},{"_key":"bad017080a483","_type":"span","marks":["33bf775bb8b9"],"text":"Neel Mehta"},{"_key":"bad017080a484","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and "},{"_key":"bad017080a485","_type":"span","marks":["deeb4babd25d"],"text":"Brian Sapozhnikov"},{"_key":"bad017080a486","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"d00f37859ff2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"7e7342ee-608b-44b8-98d9-1009d62b5a5a","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"33bf775bb8b9","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/96dcff164387?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"},{"_key":"deeb4babd25d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/bf799bcf96ac?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b4b8c475075a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b4b8c475075a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We have genuinely enjoyed working on this project and learning about the positions and the people behind each of the four tickets. We hope that, no matter the result of the election or the accuracy of our prediction, SixteenThirtySix has sparked the spirit of open data at Harvard."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you would like to view the data that we’ve used to inform our analysis, create our visualizations, and shape our prediction, please visit our "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c81","_type":"span","marks":["e355f3a678ad"],"text":"GitHub"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or contact me at "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c83","_type":"span","marks":["0a70280cc909"],"text":"ckuang@college.harvard.edu"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c84","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e355f3a678ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/sixteenthirtysix"},{"_key":"0a70280cc909","_type":"link","href":"mailto:ckuang@college.harvard.edu"}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"841823efe766","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"841823efe7660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Drumroll, please…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"069cf4897fa6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-fee00b91ce374e3dfb7e6d93217edbc435d62a82-2363x1577-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC Presidential candidate Yasmin Sachee ’18 (right) and running mate Cameron Khansarinia ’18 (left)"},{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As polling closes today, SixteenThirtySix is predicting a victory for Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ’18."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"4cac684766d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4cac684766d60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination."},{"_key":"4cac684766d61","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5836252962fd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5836252962fd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we are confident in our data and methodologies, we acknowledge that predicting elections is an imprecise science, as we saw when even professional pollsters and websites mis-predicted the 2016 American Presidential election. There will always be missing data points and trends that our data may fail to show. Still, we look forward to seeing the election outcome and hope that our predictions shed some light on what makes campaigns win or lose."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3b713c15f16d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3b713c15f16d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"After the election results are announced tonight, we’ll publish a “postmortem” to evaluate the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and determine what we can learn about UC campaigns going forward."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"7d4457a729d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d4457a729d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix wishes to congratulate all of the candidates on their respectful, hard-fought campaigns, and thank them for raising the level of discourse on our campus and for their commitment to improving student life."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6124e09dcec30","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Shameless plug: if you’re interested in open data, government, and data science, we’re working on more projects like this! Drop me a line (ckuang@college.harvard.edu), "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec31","_type":"span","marks":["f81c8e98f8ad"],"text":"join our mailing list"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec32","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", or "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec33","_type":"span","marks":["e83f8e7ff296"],"text":"visit our website"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec34","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to learn more and get involved."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"f81c8e98f8ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/harvard-open-data"},{"_key":"e83f8e7ff296","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"home","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"}],"categories":[{"_key":"2a31f2ade831","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"02089876484d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"02089876484d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix's prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-6e713117cff06cb74db9cb2b4b343ce747758812-950x400-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"c89e25d7e0a4","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]},{"_key":"8794d80ddde6","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"d3d841aa-e1cc-4efb-99d3-d9901fd388e2","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]},{"_key":"2d02821f0e30","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"1a912d38-ad99-49c7-beec-d7368b7a7cb4","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-11-17T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"19dc5d96b8e4","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"f050dd6ef7e2","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"},"subjects":[{"_key":"844fe7fecb22","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction","id":"-9e1c5b6d-a41f-539e-b384-1615c5b84265","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"8faaebad5f00195f52e795d5708d8111","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1681},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"}}}},{"_key":"ef621d081710","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumTQ4","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:13Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:13Z","body":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f33","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3af0a2716f330","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Well, the dust has settled. After the widely-criticized failure of pundits and pollsters in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 American election, the Harvard Open Data Project launched SixteenThirtySix, the first-ever polling and prediction project undertaken at Harvard College for a student government election. Read our previous posts "},{"_key":"3af0a2716f331","_type":"span","marks":["c0ac74a33282"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f332","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c0ac74a33282","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/@chriskuang"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6f35473e4226","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6f35473e42260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination. We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field.\n\n("},{"_key":"6f35473e42261","_type":"span","marks":["aa3a1524acda"],"text":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction"},{"_key":"6f35473e42262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"- Nov 17, 2016)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"aa3a1524acda","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"82ccbcb90e02","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"82ccbcb90e020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The Results"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quoted above is the prediction we published as polls closed after a three-day voting period. Not without a "},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6321","_type":"span","marks":["08ea0e8203ce"],"text":"hint of controversy"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6322","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" later that night, the election results were certified and released the next day by the UC Election Commission (below)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"08ea0e8203ce","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/18/UC-president-allegations-delay/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ccc2585d0af9","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"2016 Undergraduate Council Election Results"},{"_key":"c348fa89054c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c348fa89054c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quick Takes and Analysis"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b929b308b8fc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite the intricacies of the ranked-choice voting system that are visualized above, Yaz and Cam won a plurality of “1st preference votes” and the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency, followed by Eduardo and Alex, Scott and Evan, and Grant and Alexander. So in other words, "},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"our prediction correctly forecasted not just the winner, but the order in which the other tickets placed as well."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"254656f3c2ff0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"3042 ballots were cast out of Harvard College’s undergraduate population of approximately 6700 — a "},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"voter turnout rate of 45%"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"21cfc6190323","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"21cfc61903230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since more students failed to vote than actually voted, we still view "},{"_key":"21cfc61903231","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"social media to be the most effective campaign tool in UC elections"},{"_key":"21cfc61903232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Yaz and Cam’s superior presence on platforms such as Facebook enabled them to reach a large subset of the student body, which eventually converted into more votes."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"786d949d4a7f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"786d949d4a7f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Looking back at all the metrics that we analyzed before making our prediction, Facebook presence (both by campaigns and individuals) correlates most strongly with the results, while notably endorsements by UC representatives and student organizations do not."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aee494f3f980","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"aee494f3f9800","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Gimmicks work."},{"_key":"aee494f3f9801","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Apart from their social media presence, Yaz and Cam’s campaign coordinated door drops of puzzle pieces in upperclassmen Houses and freshman Yard dorms, a clever play on their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.” In an election with turnout under 50% and abstract stakes in the minds of many eligible voters, this gimmick successfully created buzz and started conversations."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"What does this mean for the future?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"7907ed370656","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7907ed3706560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since UC Presidential tickets are regulated by the Election Commission to spend no more than a certain dollar amount on campaign-related activities, this election has shown that the "},{"_key":"7907ed3706561","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"most efficient avenue for campaign dollars is promoting social media posts"},{"_key":"7907ed3706562","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", a tactic harnessed successfully by Yaz and Cam. One of their competitors, Scott and Evan, invested instead primarily on physical advertisements, including flyers and posters tacked and taped to bulletin boards and dorm-room doors across campus. This more traditional tactic does not appear to have brought Scott and Evan much success, as they finished in third place."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8393fb60538d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8393fb60538d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our poll, despite its statistical flaws, had a fairly accurate representation of the final results. The relatively small nature of Harvard’s undergraduate community, especially compared to the entirely of the United States, helps to minimize the number of flaws in our Google Form survey (imagine Presidential campaign polls being conducted with Google Forms…)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"011bd240027a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"011bd240027a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until Next Time"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a54","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a540","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until the time comes for SixteenThirtySix to predict another election at Harvard (we unfortunately missed the train on the graduate student unionization election), the Harvard Open Data Project will continue on working on other pressing projects, such as the development of a more "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a541","_type":"span","marks":["4f36f1e4238a"],"text":"accessible HUPD police log"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a542","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" that will visualize locations of crimes on a map of Harvard’s campus, or analysis of "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a543","_type":"span","marks":["ac6d3059f9eb"],"text":"HUDS data"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a544","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to minimize food waste in dining halls."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f36f1e4238a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"3d8e84ed-5653-4414-9375-185963b5d211","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ac6d3059f9eb","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1045f47e-697f-4456-b91d-2de76575f2e9","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c691d68f0044","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c691d68f00440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you are at all interested in joining HODP or have a suggestion of a data-driven project we should pursue, reach out to me at ckuang@college.harvard.edu and let’s chat!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"60bbf5ca0d2d","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Thoughts on the 2016 UC election results."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-02ec0b66d4a54cdb1f1bd6d3aef8b4672d5e0e2c-1400x909-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"802072b39666","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-12-01T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"c48b87d9f48e","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"961aeb3406cd","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"},"subjects":[{"_key":"8aa79ba96e1a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Our Analysis","id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"a133917d2014445e1185da8ee15ae673","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":370},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78a467c31a14","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78a467c31a140","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For reference, "},{"_key":"78a467c31a141","_type":"span","marks":["3bf0b1376686"],"text":"here are the vote tallies from last year:"},{"_key":"78a467c31a142","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3bf0b1376686","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"753c38065378","_type":"figure","alt":"Last year’s presidential results. 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Social media success is very strongly correlated with electoral success — but let’s not forget that correlation does not imply causation."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d656beeb8e20","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on official Facebook 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likes on profile photos supporting the campaign."},{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you create a ranking of the tickets based on either of these metrics, it produces the exact final ranking of the candidates in the actual election results. (Now is likely a good time to remind readers that correlation does not imply causation.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our analysis indicates that gaining serious name recognition through both a popular Facebook page and getting a wide network of Harvard students to change their profile pictures in support is key to winning the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"f819be327c28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f819be327c280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on Freshmen"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb1","_type":"span","marks":["bd26cb5a449e"],"text":"Freshmen consistently turn out at far higher rates than upperclassmen do in UC elections"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", both in the fall and the midterms. While we don’t have stratified turnout data by class for last year’s presidential election, the only class year that Yasmin and Cameron won were the freshmen, so it is reasonable to infer that the freshmen had high turnout relative to other classes. In addition, from qualitative interviews with fellow students, upperclassmen are far more likely to already know a candidate personally and have made up their mind. On the other hand, it is likely that fewer freshmen will know the candidates on a personal level and will be more open to consider all candidates."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"bd26cb5a449e","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoc4WM","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:37Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:09:42Z","body":[{"_key":"e901d17ee895","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e901d17ee8950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A new school year is upon us, and with it comes another round of Undergraduate Council elections. The UC elects three representatives from each of the 12 upperclass Houses and 4 freshman yards— plus the president and VP, who are elected separately, making a group of 50."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"30e774bdf693","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"30e774bdf6930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC is a major force on campus. "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6931","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"The Finance Committee distributes"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6932","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6933","_type":"span","marks":["strong","fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"$300,000 a year"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6934","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6935","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"to student clubs,"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6936","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and UC leaders run everything from Thanksgiving shuttles to menstrual hygiene product installation in bathrooms. So it’s important that students are engaged in the UC elections."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fc283c37a2c6","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://uc.fas.harvard.edu/grants/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"82a82f652014","_type":"figure","alt":"UC's Logo","asset":{"_ref":"image-ff2e2766e322ff60ad4325f6cf39ba3df01bc180-335x335-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC's Logo"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe042","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0420","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, last semester, we reported about "},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0421","_type":"span","marks":["ff1182860332"],"text":"how literally nobody voted in the Quincy midterm elections"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0422","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", among other signs of disturbingly low turnout. While it seems turnout this semester has improved (Quincy literally improved “infinitely,” if you will, since they jumped up from 0), unfortunately, there are still some glaring issues. Let’s jump into them."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"ff1182860332","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"52108686e7e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52108686e7e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7af98801e753","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7af98801e7530","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our open data source"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"32428da94729","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"32428da947290","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At the Harvard Open Data Project, we are committed to holding Harvard’s institutions accountable through open information. We obtained official turnout data from Harvard’s Election Commission, "},{"_key":"32428da947291","_type":"span","marks":["3b9682e9e7af"],"text":"which we have now made public,"},{"_key":"32428da947292","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and below we’ll share our insights in the hopes of shedding light on the voting process and the outcome."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3b9682e9e7af","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/UC%20elections%20fall%202017.pdf"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"28724a72e130","_type":"figure","alt":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon.","asset":{"_ref":"image-b632d0ce06ef69ab1b017f4501fc4e010ef9697e-522x403-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon."},{"_key":"e02be3a22769","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e02be3a227690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite having 402 eligible voters, Dunster’s turnout was abysmally low. However, this is understandable given than "},{"_key":"e02be3a227691","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"only 1 person was running in the first place"},{"_key":"e02be3a227692","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Junior Gevin Reynolds ran unopposed and was met with an expected victory. (To his credit, he earned 11 votes.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4dde35564d9d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4dde35564d9d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Anyone in Dunster could have written in their name and won a seat on the Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This wasn’t an isolated incident. Adams, Dudley, Lowell, Mather, and Quincy were all no-contests as well. Everyone who ran got a spot. In fact, the most competitive race in the upperclass Houses was Pforzheimer, where 4 people vied for 2 open spots, an “admission” rate of 50%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"081547e08740","_type":"figure","alt":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive.","asset":{"_ref":"image-4f92a1a693ad09387ded29dcaa24312d4cd99517-649x401-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive."},{"_key":"faa03c038ebe","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"faa03c038ebe0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7a29dfe62008","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7a29dfe620080","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Why the enthusiasm gap?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We brainstormed several hypotheses for why some houses had such abysmal turnout and why some fared better. The hypothesis most supported by the data was that more-contested elections attracted more voters than less-contested ones. This trend was generally true, but there were many exceptions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e3459b16e08c","_type":"figure","alt":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board.","asset":{"_ref":"image-442a96377f3629cfe06b8ca9ae4451bc29b61d36-632x400-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board."},{"_key":"5161a49729e8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5161a49729e80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Winthrop had 5 candidates in the running, but only 21 of the 410 eligible students, or 5.12%, voted. "},{"_key":"5161a49729e81","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Mather had virtually no choice regarding their UC representative, yet their turnout (8.92%) still surpassed Winthrop’s."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8b10459ada11","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8b10459ada110","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In general, though, the houses with more candidates did seem to have higher turnout."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6102293b62b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6102293b62b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8c5af6b16149","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8c5af6b161490","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Insurgence in Eliot"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"84ba6c8cdc4e","_type":"figure","alt":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)","asset":{"_ref":"image-ec16264d92583cd2b042962d44850c10766874e2-660x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)"},{"_key":"39592c39c2c9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"39592c39c2c90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This fall’s Eliot UC election produced a record voter turnout of 30.25%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2a08557a702f","_type":"figure","alt":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year.","asset":{"_ref":"image-3178ad957341266143bf64f0b3f90167aec58b66-600x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year."},{"_key":"1c135c175ccc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1c135c175ccc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In Eliot, 4 sophomores faced off against 1 senior for 3 coveted positions. One of the winning candidates, Arnav Agrawal, ran on a platform of providing free menstrual health supplies within the house and improving mental health services. These issues were also central to Agrawal’s freshman year successful UC platform. Perhaps this exciting race will set a precedent for other candidates in future elections."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d689117c998b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d689117c998b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Who knew freshmen were so politically engaged?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c7a1908ea9a7","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-e56489fdf41a69d0b27173655e617b4a94185992-700x229-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"d61473ade166","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d61473ade1660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The freshman class had both the greatest amount of candidates and the largest voter turnout by a wide margin. Even the freshman yard with the lowest turnout, Ivy Yard (39.29%), had a better voter turnout than the upperclassman house with the highest turnout, Eliot (30.25%)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bd67bb550030","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bd67bb5500300","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, the freshman class’s voter turnout was a striking 45.38%. This relatively high turnout was more than three times as high as the overall voter turnout for upperclassmen, which was just 14.10%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"da5167b2328c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da5167b2328c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A call to action"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"85ac75b452c5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"85ac75b452c50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we might make fun of it sometimes, low voter turnout is a huge problem on campus. The UC was created specifically to give students, elected by their peers, the ability to change the Harvard experience. Failure to participate in this process is a waste of a valuable opportunity. Casting your vote is the easiest way to ensure that your voice is being heard and that you are adequately represented."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a232107a131e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a232107a131e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Most students will spend 4 years in college. It’s time to make them count."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ee91e16176a9","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-f3e77a3665decac18113a79b6f5980d7fbb9ea51-971x619-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"7a2eceb07622","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"c4d23029-6e38-4f6b-8135-b03c9211fb0f","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-02T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"213f2c342fd3","_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"380301fbf88b","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"You, Too, Could Have Won The Dunster UC Election","id":"-ae5094fb-df08-5c27-8c5a-7f2e8b72dc25","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"3d846f08eec6d1437258df3d4f408b31","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1686},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e08d02be7d26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e08d02be7d260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For these reasons, personally meeting freshmen seems to provide the greatest return on investment for a candidate’s time. In last year’s (relatively unscientific) HODP election poll, the ranking of candidates among freshman exactly matched the final election results. In addition, the winning pair, Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia, knocked on freshman doors, though they were not the only candidate pair to do so."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"424f9fed4218","_type":"figure","alt":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class.","asset":{"_id":"image-790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoXTjG","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:41:50Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:41:50Z","assetId":"790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":4,"height":360,"width":1440},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#861230","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#8c1332","foreground":"#fff","population":0.47,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a20f34","foreground":"#fff","population":15.82,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cc90a0","foreground":"#000","population":1.13,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#da688c","foreground":"#fff","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#915262","foreground":"#fff","population":1.32,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a20f34","foreground":"#fff","population":15.82,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360.png","sha1hash":"790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76","size":122095,"uploadId":"PLiqmeAiOLu6jKXeRIbdC9LxCilP24ND","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360.png","id":"image-790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"bde1f86cdb9887db00b973e9aee8aa5c","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":894},"parent":null},"caption":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class."},{"_key":"98cfec411ebf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"98cfec411ebf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Upperclassmen matter, too, but there’s some evidence that spending additional time with freshmen can yield great results. This conclusion is based on the traditionally higher freshman turnout and the decreased likelihood of freshmen having made up their minds through personal relationships."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Don’t Really Matter"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a34139cfb720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When campaigning to be president of the UC, it might seem natural to spend time schmoozing with members of the UC and leaders of student organizations. While this is likely valuable to some degree, endorsements were not a great predictor of final election results. Last year, a ranking of endorsements from student organizations (weighted based on organization size) would have predicted a win by Eduardo Gonzalez and Alex Popovski, who ultimately came in second. A ranking of endorsements from UC representatives would have predicted a win by Scott Ely and Evan Bonsall, who finished in third. Finally, "},{"_key":"4a34139cfb721","_type":"span","marks":["5755216b643d"],"text":"The Crimson Editorial Board endorsed Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb722","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" last fall."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5755216b643d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4370830c499e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4370830c499e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, none of these metrics would have correctly predicted the results of the election, though this does not necessarily imply there isn’t a causal relationship between endorsements and voting."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5eb7547d2ed0","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing 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from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016."},{"_key":"1311161179a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1311161179a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates should be cautious not to focus too much on wooing student leaders, and instead focus on individual voters."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Money Allocation Matters More than Total Spending"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When we think about national politics, we often think that campaign spending strongly correlates with electoral success. However, this relationship does not necessarily hold for Harvard’s UC presidential elections. Last year, the winning pair was third out of four tickets in total spending."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates are permitted to spend up to $200 on their campaigns, and "},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba1","_type":"span","marks":["70967d2b89ad"],"text":"two pairs were within $5 of this amount last year."},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" However, the winning pair was the one that spent the bulk of their funding on social media and a gimmick targeted at freshmen. Yasmin and Cameron spent a total of $163.73 on their campaign, $78.23 of which was spent on social media campaigns (Snapchat filter and Facebook promotions). Although they were third in total spending, they led the pack in spending on social media, which, as we’ve seen above, is strongly correlated with electoral success."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"70967d2b89ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/12/9/uc-candidates-spending-breakdown/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4baba840e0a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4baba840e0a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Yasmin and Cameron spent $30 on puzzle pieces, which they gave out to voters, particularly freshmen. This giveaway may have helped them at the ballot box. It’s worth noting that the second-place ticket, Eduardo and Alex, was the only other campaign to come up with a free giveaway gimmick (stickers, in this case)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"45c7362f6676","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"45c7362f66760","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yasmin and Cameron’s smart move to focus their funding on social media, name recognition, and freshmen may have contributed to their success in the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d3d99a798bf5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3d99a798bf50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Keys to Success"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9903ed3430c0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9903ed3430c00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While this analysis should not be read as a perfect formula for becoming the next UC President, the Harvard Open Data Project hopes that it provides a useful roadmap for what general strategies tend to be correlated with electoral success. To review:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a3afa87871f2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a3afa87871f20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Build a great social media network to gain name recognition."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79af38a17216","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79af38a172160","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on the freshmen through personal meetings and giveaways."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5512c0df3899","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5512c0df38990","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Don’t worry too much about endorsements."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4c210966575b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c210966575b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Try to spend your money on points #1 and #2 as much as possible."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","members":[{"_key":"2ce271b008d7","person":{"image":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-62349ab69101cca7b5119d06cc55062a35c31219-250x250-png"}},"name":"Stephen Moon","slug":{"current":"stephen-moon"}},"roles":["editor"]}]}},"pageContext":{"id":"-8d35115e-767c-5a72-97a9-3c2b7c9cba27"}},"staticQueryHashes":["2744905544","300934582","727047668"]}