{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2","publishedAt":"2017-11-05T07:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-7d8ec5140bec95d7ddfb50e84758dd9cd4c32227-1500x899-png"},"alt":"A debate from the 2016 Undergraduate Council elections. (Photo credit: Aridenne A. Dews for the Harvard Crimson)"},"title":"Here’s What Successful UC Presidential Candidates Had in Common","slug":{"current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"52541916baea","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52541916baea0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Trends from past UC Presidential elections, and what we can tell about this year’s contest… before campaigning even starts!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"957368b366cf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"957368b366cf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, three tickets are vying to be the next President and Vice President of the Undergraduate Council (UC), Harvard’s top student government post. Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher have thrown their hats in the ring."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e458982d5ff90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project used surveys and social media data to "},{"_key":"e458982d5ff91","_type":"span","marks":["1c12e1f300c5"],"text":"correctly predict the outcome of the UC Presidential election"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’ll do a similar project this year (stay tuned!), but we want to take it a step further — we want to see what we can learn about the election before campaigning even starts."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"1c12e1f300c5","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumTQ4","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:13Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:13Z","body":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f33","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3af0a2716f330","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Well, the dust has settled. After the widely-criticized failure of pundits and pollsters in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 American election, the Harvard Open Data Project launched SixteenThirtySix, the first-ever polling and prediction project undertaken at Harvard College for a student government election. Read our previous posts "},{"_key":"3af0a2716f331","_type":"span","marks":["c0ac74a33282"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f332","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c0ac74a33282","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/@chriskuang"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6f35473e4226","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6f35473e42260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination. We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field.\n\n("},{"_key":"6f35473e42261","_type":"span","marks":["aa3a1524acda"],"text":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction"},{"_key":"6f35473e42262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"- Nov 17, 2016)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"aa3a1524acda","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"82ccbcb90e02","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"82ccbcb90e020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The Results"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quoted above is the prediction we published as polls closed after a three-day voting period. Not without a "},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6321","_type":"span","marks":["08ea0e8203ce"],"text":"hint of controversy"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6322","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" later that night, the election results were certified and released the next day by the UC Election Commission (below)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"08ea0e8203ce","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/18/UC-president-allegations-delay/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ccc2585d0af9","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"2016 Undergraduate Council Election Results"},{"_key":"c348fa89054c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c348fa89054c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quick Takes and Analysis"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b929b308b8fc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite the intricacies of the ranked-choice voting system that are visualized above, Yaz and Cam won a plurality of “1st preference votes” and the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency, followed by Eduardo and Alex, Scott and Evan, and Grant and Alexander. So in other words, "},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"our prediction correctly forecasted not just the winner, but the order in which the other tickets placed as well."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"254656f3c2ff0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"3042 ballots were cast out of Harvard College’s undergraduate population of approximately 6700 — a "},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"voter turnout rate of 45%"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"21cfc6190323","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"21cfc61903230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since more students failed to vote than actually voted, we still view "},{"_key":"21cfc61903231","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"social media to be the most effective campaign tool in UC elections"},{"_key":"21cfc61903232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Yaz and Cam’s superior presence on platforms such as Facebook enabled them to reach a large subset of the student body, which eventually converted into more votes."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"786d949d4a7f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"786d949d4a7f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Looking back at all the metrics that we analyzed before making our prediction, Facebook presence (both by campaigns and individuals) correlates most strongly with the results, while notably endorsements by UC representatives and student organizations do not."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aee494f3f980","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"aee494f3f9800","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Gimmicks work."},{"_key":"aee494f3f9801","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Apart from their social media presence, Yaz and Cam’s campaign coordinated door drops of puzzle pieces in upperclassmen Houses and freshman Yard dorms, a clever play on their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.” In an election with turnout under 50% and abstract stakes in the minds of many eligible voters, this gimmick successfully created buzz and started conversations."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"What does this mean for the future?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"7907ed370656","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7907ed3706560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since UC Presidential tickets are regulated by the Election Commission to spend no more than a certain dollar amount on campaign-related activities, this election has shown that the "},{"_key":"7907ed3706561","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"most efficient avenue for campaign dollars is promoting social media posts"},{"_key":"7907ed3706562","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", a tactic harnessed successfully by Yaz and Cam. One of their competitors, Scott and Evan, invested instead primarily on physical advertisements, including flyers and posters tacked and taped to bulletin boards and dorm-room doors across campus. This more traditional tactic does not appear to have brought Scott and Evan much success, as they finished in third place."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8393fb60538d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8393fb60538d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our poll, despite its statistical flaws, had a fairly accurate representation of the final results. The relatively small nature of Harvard’s undergraduate community, especially compared to the entirely of the United States, helps to minimize the number of flaws in our Google Form survey (imagine Presidential campaign polls being conducted with Google Forms…)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"011bd240027a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"011bd240027a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until Next Time"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a54","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a540","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until the time comes for SixteenThirtySix to predict another election at Harvard (we unfortunately missed the train on the graduate student unionization election), the Harvard Open Data Project will continue on working on other pressing projects, such as the development of a more "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a541","_type":"span","marks":["4f36f1e4238a"],"text":"accessible HUPD police log"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a542","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" that will visualize locations of crimes on a map of Harvard’s campus, or analysis of "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a543","_type":"span","marks":["ac6d3059f9eb"],"text":"HUDS data"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a544","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to minimize food waste in dining halls."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f36f1e4238a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"3d8e84ed-5653-4414-9375-185963b5d211","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ac6d3059f9eb","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1045f47e-697f-4456-b91d-2de76575f2e9","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c691d68f0044","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c691d68f00440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you are at all interested in joining HODP or have a suggestion of a data-driven project we should pursue, reach out to me at ckuang@college.harvard.edu and let’s chat!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"60bbf5ca0d2d","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Thoughts on the 2016 UC election results."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-02ec0b66d4a54cdb1f1bd6d3aef8b4672d5e0e2c-1400x909-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"802072b39666","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-12-01T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"c48b87d9f48e","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"961aeb3406cd","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"},"subjects":[{"_key":"8aa79ba96e1a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Our Analysis","id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"a133917d2014445e1185da8ee15ae673","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":370},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c598eaf33975","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c598eaf339750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To figure out who the favorites might be heading into the campaign, we at HODP dove into past election data. Popular election of UC presidents began in 1996, but "},{"_key":"c598eaf339751","_type":"span","marks":["e18ea3ddbb65"],"text":"until 2005, presidents and vice presidents were elected separately."},{"_key":"c598eaf339752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Though there is lots of interesting data from before 2005 "},{"_key":"c598eaf339753","_type":"span","marks":["97856fe8b951"],"text":"(including a presidential campaign by CS50 Professor David Malan)"},{"_key":"c598eaf339754","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", HODP’s analysis is only based on the 2005–2016 elections, since these have the same rules as the current electoral system."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e18ea3ddbb65","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2004/12/10/glazer-nichols-elected-in-split-vote/"},{"_key":"97856fe8b951","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1997/12/4/candidates-debate-issues-pcandidates-vying-for/?page=1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7ae4a41e3051","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7ae4a41e30510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In this article, we’ll look into what past results can tell us about this year’s race."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a2ffac28ad28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a2ffac28ad280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"53d188e01af6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"53d188e01af60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experience matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f1","_type":"span","marks":["89c15a51a1bf"],"text":"According to The Harvard Crimson,"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" by 2007, no UC presidential candidate without prior UC experience had ever won. Since then, the results have been remarkably similar. The only UC outsider to win the presidency has been Samuel Clark, who in 2013 rode to power on a joke ticket that promised to resign immediately upon being elected."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"89c15a51a1bf","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2007/12/10/with-turnout-low-sundquist-sarafa-wins-uc/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC has been popularly electing presidents for 21 years. But only once, in 2013, has a presidential candidate without prior UC experience won the top spot in Harvard’s student government."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, since 2005, 11 of the 12 winning vice presidential candidates have had UC experience. The only exception was Clark’s running mate, Gus Mayopoulos."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7c0769c5b202","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c0769c5b2020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC insiders seem to dominate the presidential elections. “Insider-insider” tickets (those in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience) only constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time. That is, insider-insider tickets have won every single year besides 2013."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1d2dc80a9f92","_type":"figure","alt":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election.","asset":{"_id":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjATn4","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:24:59Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:24:59Z","assetId":"6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6203703703703705,"height":432,"width":700},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#134485","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#1c64c4","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d73d1a","foreground":"#fff","population":3.3,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c4c2bf","foreground":"#000","population":1.03,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6ca4e4","foreground":"#000","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#99a3b6","foreground":"#000","population":0.6,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d73d1a","foreground":"#fff","population":3.3,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432.png","sha1hash":"6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63","size":31642,"uploadId":"JrCEZICFBCmSr0YGOV5pCPbYOh366DJ5","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432.png","id":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"4b602a13027ea247991535cb6ea64c32","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":803},"parent":null},"caption":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election."},{"_key":"68a0d3e33851","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"68a0d3e338510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Obviously, these results do not mean that a ticket with an outsider candidate can’t ’win. Our sample size is small, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Plus, a pair of candidates without any UC experience showed in 2013 that outsiders can win. And let’s not forget Donald Trump, who won the American Presidency in 2016 with zero prior governmental experience."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9264158705b7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9264158705b70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our findings on experience aren’t perfect, but they indicate an advantage for experienced tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"130bff6db299","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"130bff6db2990","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"130bff6db2991","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" They’re the only ticket where both candidates have served on the UC (both, in fact, are leaders on the UC’s Executive Committee). Agbafe also serves on the UC, but his running mate, Bervell, does not. Healy does not have prior UC experience, but is well known on campus from the Open Campus Initiative; his running mate, Thakker, currently serves on the UC."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a485ff95c1e4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a485ff95c1e40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f08feebc9886","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f08feebc98860","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class year matters… but less than you might think"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f9dc06e6a592","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9dc06e6a5920","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors have dominated UC elections. In 11 of the past 12 years (or 91.7% of elections), the UC President and VP have both been juniors. (In the other year, 2006, the President was a junior but the VP was a sophomore.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"50a76e162cae","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"50a76e162cae0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no non-junior has ever been elected UC President. And only once, in 2006, was a non-junior vice presidential candidate elected."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"92b9cabfee67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"92b9cabfee670","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These data would suggest that students look for UC Presidents that have spent more time at Harvard, possibly because that gives them a deeper knowledge of the institution. (Why juniors and not seniors? UC Presidential terms are for a calendar year, so seniors usually can’t run, because by the time they take office in the spring they only have 1 semester left.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"545fb50d5873","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"545fb50d58730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But the junior advantage might not be all that surprising. The vast majority (94.7%) of presidential candidates and most (81.6%) of the vice presidential candidates are juniors, so there’s a pretty limited pool of non-juniors who could win to begin with! So, to us, it’s unclear whether number of years at Harvard is a significant factor in electoral outcomes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cc071df3466","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cc071df34660","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: nobody."},{"_key":"2cc071df34661","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" This year, all six of the presidential and vice presidential candidates come from the junior class, so this class year advantage does not make an impact. It’s worth noting, though, that Parth Thakker is a social senior (originally class of ’18, now ‘19)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"279ab39e5048","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"279ab39e50480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There might be a “Quad advantage”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"055bbeab4c82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"055bbeab4c820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"HODP recorded the houses of past UC presidential and vice presidential candidates, and found that a surprisingly high number of them come from just a few houses. For example, Adams has produced 1 presidential candidate and no vice presidential candidates since 2005, and Leverett has produced 1 of each since 2005. But Currier has produced 6 presidential candidates and 4 vice presidential candidates since 2005."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cd55239dbdf","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by 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Again, we have a very small sample here, so we shouldn’t draw too many definitive conclusions from this, but there could potentially be some “quad advantage” going on. On the other hand, we found that only one 1 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the Quad — all the rest came from the River!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27823ea33d72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27823ea33d720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Given our data since 2005, it seems like the winning combo might be a presidential candidate from the Quad with a vice presidential candidate from the River."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The hypothetical “Quad advantage” gets even more interesting when you mix in the factor of UC experience. Since 2005, 10 juniors from the Quad with UC experience have run for UC President. Six of those candidates have won. Three of those candidates lost to "},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"other"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" juniors from the Quad with UC experience. The tenth candidate got 2nd place to 2013’s joke ticket. In other words:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no presidential candidate from the Quad with UC experience has ever lost to a candidate from the River (except in 2013’s wave election)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"9208718d02cc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9208718d02cc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Qualitatively, this advantage is also plausible. The Quad is well-known as a close-knit community on campus, so Quad residents might be more likely to know and vote for a UC presidential candidate from any of the 3 Quad houses. In addition, "},{"_key":"9208718d02cc1","_type":"span","marks":["acc476e19b6c"],"text":"HODP has found that the Quad consistently has higher turnout in general UC representative elections."},{"_key":"9208718d02cc2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We don’t have data on presidential elections stratified by house, but assuming that these trends hold true, that higher turnout might also explain the “Quad advantage.”"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"acc476e19b6c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/HODP%20UC%20election%20data%20analysis%2C%20fall%202017.xlsx"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As usual, our sample size is small, and it’s entirely possible that the trend we’ve seen is solely due to chance. Nonetheless, this is an interesting finding."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d420249f3a1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d420249f3a10","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"2d420249f3a11","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" If there is a “Quad advantage”, it would help the Zhang-Boucher ticket. Zhang hails from Cabot House, while Boucher lives in Mather. That’s the prized Quad-River combo discussed above! The other two tickets have all-River candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2661c22f1a97","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2661c22f1a970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb2eb635f497","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb2eb635f4970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"What we know heading into the campaign — and what we don’t"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"2c79615005b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2c79615005b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our sample is quite small, and past results don’t guarantee future ones. Plus, unexpected things can always happen in elections — if you need a reminder, just remember Trump’s election a year ago!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, with all the usual caveats, we can observe some general trends from past years that might be helpful in looking at the 2017 presidential election. "},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If you’re champing at the bit to know how this year’s election might go, early speculation based on past results might suggest a slight advantage for Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" That said, it’s still far too early to make any real predictions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d046bda8d09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d046bda8d090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How will the election actually shape up? We’ll be back next week with our second annual polls and analyses to see if we can figure that out. Stay tuned!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","members":[{"_key":"b4b66d8b9951","person":{"image":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-62349ab69101cca7b5119d06cc55062a35c31219-250x250-png"}},"name":"Stephen Moon","slug":{"current":"stephen-moon"}},"roles":["editor"]}]}},"pageContext":{"id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2"}},"staticQueryHashes":["2744905544","300934582","727047668"]}