{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-d54cc4e9-7ee3-5a72-9d87-636e8a793adf","publishedAt":"2018-11-14T08:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[{"title":"The Data Is In: Here’s Who Will Win the UC Presidential Election","_id":"72f7cc52-4577-41af-aa64-64505da2def9","slug":{"current":"the-data-is-in-here-s-who-will-win-the-uc-presidential-election"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"The three pairs of candidates debated this past Sunday in Harvard Hall. [Photo: Neel Mehta]","asset":{"_ref":"image-b19e9936114fa54865c83dfe9fcaf72d85bc2c05-2000x1500-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"ff80de938344","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ff80de9383440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven prediction of Harvard’s 2017 contest for student body president."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]},{"title":"Predicting the 2018 UC Presidential Election Winners","_id":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","slug":{"current":"predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Four tickets are running in the 2018 UC Presidential Election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-d2115c715082ae042c19ef25008fec4b01e575a2-1600x1114-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven election forecast by Manasi Maheshwari and Dasha Metropolitansky"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]},{"title":"Your 2019 Harvard UC President will be…","_id":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","slug":{"current":"your-2019-harvard-uc-president-will-be"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-87f8847b38dbcd64732da2797306c6d345a147df-1400x700-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"224b15ace237","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"224b15ace2370","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We ran the numbers. Here's what we found."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]}],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-d2115c715082ae042c19ef25008fec4b01e575a2-1600x1114-png"},"alt":"Four tickets are running in the 2018 UC Presidential Election."},"title":"Predicting the 2018 UC Presidential Election Winners","slug":{"current":"predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven election forecast by Manasi Maheshwari and Dasha Metropolitansky"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"5c7e8c65661b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5c7e8c65661b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Election season is in full swing at Harvard: on the heels of the U.S. midterms, students will vote for the next Undergraduate Council (UC) President and Vice President from November 12 to 15. "},{"_key":"5c7e8c65661b1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"We used past results, polling data, and social media trends to predict the next leaders of Harvard’s undergraduate student body."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fecc37e33a5c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fecc37e33a5c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, four tickets are vying for the opportunity to lead Harvard College’s student body:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"538bb44bdf0a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"538bb44bdf0a0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Daniel Ragheb and Samyra Miller"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c5efcbc2fed8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c5efcbc2fed80","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Sruthi Palaniappan and Julia Huesa"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f1dee7a4fbe5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f1dee7a4fbe50","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Nadine Khoury and Arnav Agrawal"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d38cf204f3b1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d38cf204f3b10","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"John T. Ball and Sabrina Wu"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"555bd9594c6f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"555bd9594c6f0","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"A quick note: The Crimson has not included John and Sabrina as candidates in their recent coverage of the election, and they were not present at the UC Presidential debate. However, since they were approved as a ticket and their names appear on the ballot, we have included them in our prediction analysis."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ea4c9f453be00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In "},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be01","_type":"span","marks":["60bc8a35144b"],"text":"2016 "},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be02","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"and "},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be03","_type":"span","marks":["5becb4bc4a15"],"text":"2017"},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be04","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", the Harvard Open Data Project correctly predicted the results of the UC presidential election, and we hope to continue this streak. This year’s election will be slightly different from previous years because the UC has adopted a "},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be05","_type":"span","marks":["dc9dcb2ace34"],"text":"new voting system"},{"_key":"ea4c9f453be06","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Under the new system (Borda), voters rank each ticket; their first choice will receive 1 point, second 0.5 points, third 0.33 points, and fourth 0 points. Under the old system (Hare-Clark), voters also ranked the tickets, but if no ticket reached a predetermined threshold of first-place votes, then the bottom-ranked ticket was eliminated and its votes were transferred to remaining candidates. This process continued until a ticket met the threshold of first-place votes or all tickets but one had been eliminated."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"60bc8a35144b","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEunJDu","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:49Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:29:48Z","body":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since embarking on our quest to "},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a1","_type":"span","marks":["6621be4e2cc3"],"text":"use data to predict the results of Harvard’s 2016 Undergraduate Council election"},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", we at the Harvard Open Data Project have learned just how many considerations go into a prediction. Over the past three days, we have collected thousands of data points, both qualitative and quantitative, for our team to analyze."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6621be4e2cc3","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"24de6116146a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"24de6116146a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our election prediction project, dubbed SixteenThirtySix, has been an exciting foray into the world of electoral politics, and we are excited to be sharing the results of the "},{"_key":"24de6116146a1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first-ever polling and predictions project for student government elections at Harvard."},{"_key":"24de6116146a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"97bb8638b369","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"97bb8638b3690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The following four tickets of presidential and vice-presidential candidates appeared on the ballot this week:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ad39ecd65e56","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ad39ecd65e560","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Scott Ely ’18 and Evan Bonsall ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3546e7c4f181","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3546e7c4f1810","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Eduardo Gonzalez ’18 and Alex Popovski ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27ca93e01521","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27ca93e015210","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"094afe59cc75","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"094afe59cc750","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Grant Solomon ’18 and Alexander Moore ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"368170e99b26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"368170e99b260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the past three days, SixteenThirtySix analyzed many "},{"_key":"368170e99b261","_type":"span","marks":["d88b38ffa037"],"text":"different quantitative and qualitative metrics"},{"_key":"368170e99b262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for each of the four tickets. Below, we discuss each factor in detail before arriving at our final prediction."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d88b38ffa037","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5580e478486f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5580e478486f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Presence"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Official Campaign Pages"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In a day and time where it seems that almost everything is at the tap of a finger or click of a mouse, it is no surprise that campaigns prioritized social media presence. With the exception of Grant and Alexander, each of the remaining three tickets curated polished campaign pages on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d7669cb9298","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d7669cb92980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These Facebook pages serve as avenues where the candidates can campaign, share policy positions, and publicize endorsements."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d6da75561888","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Likes: Official Campaign Pages"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f972a32d96e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Likes drive page views. Page views generate engagement. Pages on Facebook with higher totals of likes appear on more News Feeds and Timelines, thus allowing campaigns to spread their message to a broader audience. Likes also may be a good indicator of support in the undergraduate body. "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e51","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"In this important battle,"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e52","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e53","_type":"span","marks":["strong","15b9a9308e88"],"text":"Yaz & Cam for UC"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e54","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e55","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"hold a wide lead, with more “likes” on their Facebook page than those of the other three tickets combined."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"15b9a9308e88","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/yazandcam/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Personal “Endorsements”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Putting the “social” in “social media,” the same three campaigns devised filters or themes that allowed their supporters to publicly share their support with their friends and followers. The three front-running campaigns all harnessed custom overlays that allowed individuals to show support on their own profile pictures."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1e26008d119b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-926dc05fbd3b3369cc38029928b8cf58ba9915fd-1489x741-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Examples of custom campaign overlays (Left: Yaz and Cam, Right: Scott and Evan)"},{"_key":"f94e8bde1862","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94e8bde18620","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to the custom frames, Eduardo and Alex chose a more personal route, featuring hand-written whiteboard messages of what supporters wanted to see in “Our Harvard” — the campaign’s official slogan."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aeea9e48e78b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0fc691727eeb36fc188775fe1d3d6be2a442bd53-1490x592-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Whiteboards and custom frames — Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"f8db9462d341","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f8db9462d3410","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"\nIn studying the number of individual “endorsements”— which we define as a public profile picture change with an overlay or whiteboard — we at SixteenThirtySix were able to get a sense of popular sentiment within the student body."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"960ba5b36d95","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b0d9164f38dfadb71cc7fd3641b5543901ea5652-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"2620b03bd3a6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0bd2d4ca809f0259a1a5ca284f9bf667381e595c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Mean and median likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"57eb34f192df","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"57eb34f192df0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Yaz and Cam left the rest of the field in the dust in terms of the sheer level of engagement with individual “endorsements.” This enabled their campaign to reach a larger audience and attract higher levels of name recognition and familiarity. These all translated into increased perceived support and, most likely, more votes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ade1302fc632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ade1302fc6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex, as well as Scott and Evan, made up some ground in terms of mean and median likes, which implies higher enthusiasm among their respective supporters than the number of total likes might suggest, but "},{"_key":"ade1302fc6321","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam still maintained a healthy lead across all of our social media metrics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ba29bbd9c508","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ba29bbd9c5080","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At this point in our analysis, the data suggested that three tickets (Yaz and Cam; Eduardo and Alex; and Scott and Evan) have the social media support necessary for a serious bid for the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency. Grant and Alexander had a minimal presence on Facebook, consisting of a single “hype video” with 592 views. Their candidacy hinged on their outsider perspective, as neither candidate on the ticket has any UC experience. Unfortunately for them, their lack of a social media presence likely significantly hinders their chances of winning the Presidency."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a797f91c63b0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a797f91c63b00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, Yaz and Cam’s dominant social media presence offers them a unique advantage over the other campaigns."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"550ea7710a82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"550ea7710a820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"dca12af5ddf7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dca12af5ddf70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Organizations"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"6a855b34e14d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6a855b34e14d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Some organizations on campus have come out in support of a certain campaign that they feel aligns most with their interests or values. Most notably, Eduardo/Alex and Yaz/Cam have received several prominent endorsements, including:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex: "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb1","_type":"span","marks":["2a875a18d97a"],"text":"Concilio Latino"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb3","_type":"span","marks":["8c6ff28429eb"],"text":"Fuerza Latina"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", QSA, "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb5","_type":"span","marks":["em","c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb6","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb7","_type":"span","marks":["c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Editorial Board"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb8","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb9","_type":"span","marks":["edb64e5a0e1c"],"text":"Latinas Unidas"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb11","_type":"span","marks":["5aab3da3a633"],"text":"Act on a Dream"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb12","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and the African Students Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"2a875a18d97a","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=916149108485542&id=126642857436175"},{"_key":"8c6ff28429eb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/harvardfuerzalatina/posts/642779945902981"},{"_key":"c2c465bb2454","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"},{"_key":"edb64e5a0e1c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1607762399249968&set=a.548493615176857.139535.100000486701224&type=3&theater"},{"_key":"5aab3da3a633","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/actonadream/posts/1499529473396467"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95f291852450","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95f2918524500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yaz and Cam: "},{"_key":"95f2918524501","_type":"span","marks":["eac0f522dd4d"],"text":"Asian-American Association"},{"_key":"95f2918524502","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", Association of Black Harvard Women, Nigerian Students Association, and the Iranian Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"eac0f522dd4d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/fAAAmily/posts/1196058283798420"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex’s ticket has been widely praised by many minority cultural organizations for being the only ticket to consider the plight of undocumented students at Harvard on their platform, an increasingly important matter under the incoming Trump Administration."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c98524f25068","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c98524f250680","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When weighing endorsement data, SixteenThirtySix considered the potential “reach” each statement of support carried, which we assumed to be proportional to the number of members on an endorsing organization’s email list (as most endorsements were announced over email). During this UC election cycle, board members of organizations have been actively campaigning for candidates by sending emails over pub-lists, speaking during meetings, and posting on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ca89819d98d0","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Membership of Endorsing Organizations"},{"_key":"a83d133931c6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a83d133931c60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As visualized above, "},{"_key":"a83d133931c61","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"a83d133931c62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" lead in this metric. However, SixteenThirtySix cannot account for “member overlap” between endorsing organizations; it is wholly possible that one student can be double- or even triple-counted in the above graph if he or she belongs to multiple organizations that have issued endorsements. Counterbalancing this is the "},{"_key":"a83d133931c63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"a83d133931c65","_type":"span","marks":["db85c04a7ccb"],"text":"editorial board endorsement"},{"_key":"a83d133931c66","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" of Eduardo and Alex as “stand[ing] above the rest.” The "},{"_key":"a83d133931c67","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c68","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" declined to provide viewership data, but we can imagine that their readership is broad, although not necessarily engaged in the same manner as one would be in an organization."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"db85c04a7ccb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When it comes to organizational endorsements, advantage: Eduardo and Alex."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9a78680540f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9a78680540f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Sitting UC Representatives"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3654da37288c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3654da37288c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The three front-running campaigns are all composed of “establishment” UC figures, all six of whom have served at least two terms on the Council. The presidential candidates have all served as chairs of various UC committees. While we could not directly analyze their experiences working with other members on the Council, we did so indirectly by looking at the number of endorsements each candidate received from their fellow representatives:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"09a10d959a84","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Grant and Alexander’s ticket suffered from the candidates’ lack of connections on the UC. Scott and Evan lead in these endorsements by UC representatives, although it is worth noting that over 40% of those on the Council, including current President Shaiba Rather ‘17 and Vice-President Danny Banks ’17, have declined to state publicly who they are supporting. "},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If the publicly undeclared representatives break along roughly the same proportions as those who have declared their support, Scott and Evan stand to benefit."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b00843cb7ed4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b00843cb7ed40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC members generally have strong networks within upperclassmen Houses or in freshman Yards, and therefore can serve as effective surrogate campaigners."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our Survey"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c5698","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c5f2be0c56980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the course of the voting period, SixteenThirtySix used "},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56981","_type":"span","marks":["7a874a7278b1"],"text":"this poll"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to try and gain a sense of overall student opinion regarding the UC election. While we are fully aware that a Google Form does not rise to the level of professional political polling or to the standards of representative samples, we have no reason to believe that there are systematic biases in the data we have collected. Our poll was “pubbed” over many different email list-servs and house lists in an attempt to reach a diverse and representative subset of the Harvard College student body. Realizing the statistical shortcomings of this methodology, we used the data gathered as a complementary source in our analysis, rather than as a primary source."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"7a874a7278b1","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://goo.gl/forms/VIvxmUHyxnyjkmin1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"11ffe03054bd","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2164d2f650e5d46d9b3f2bd17f622837cfc518f2-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total respondents in favor of each ticket"},{"_key":"e30835f31aae","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b3f6d5b5596d2c2e4c56955ab62e03d35944f75b-1544x460-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Distribution of respondents in favor of each ticket, sorted by grade."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe15","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"234fb2c8fe150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our survey received over 240 responses, which amounts to about 3.5% of the electorate. "},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe151","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam hold a plurality in the popular vote as well as a surprising lead among respondents in the freshman class."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Freshmen, who traditionally have high voter engagement and turnout rates in UC elections, may be the deciding factor in this election. One potential explanation for Yaz and Cam’s success among freshman is their distribution of puzzle pieces across campus and throughout dorms in the Yard, echoing their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d442cc2269f70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Further complicating our quest to predict the election, Undergraduate Council elections are conducted using a "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f71","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"ranked-choice system"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", forgoing more well-known alternatives, including "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f73","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first past the post"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f74","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or the "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f75","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Electoral College."},{"_key":"d442cc2269f76","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Thus, if voters’ first choices result in a neck-and-neck race, the Presidency could be decided on the strength of tickets’ down-ballot performances (i.e. on ballots for which they were not ranked first)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3c013232b2e3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3c013232b2e30","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Our Prediction"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"321e7e1205d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"321e7e1205d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Before we at SixteenThirtySix make our official prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election, we would like to thank those that have made this project possible."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6598c656e095","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6598c656e0950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Data Gathering & Visualization: HODP’s research and development team, Ryan Lee, Michael Zhang, and especially team lead "},{"_key":"6598c656e0951","_type":"span","marks":["e3eefd1bdd28"],"text":"Athena Kan"},{"_key":"6598c656e0952","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"e3eefd1bdd28","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/80289ccba39f?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bad017080a48","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bad017080a480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall Guidance: HODP’s amazing project team leaders (read more about them "},{"_key":"bad017080a481","_type":"span","marks":["d00f37859ff2"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"bad017080a482","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"!), including "},{"_key":"bad017080a483","_type":"span","marks":["33bf775bb8b9"],"text":"Neel Mehta"},{"_key":"bad017080a484","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and "},{"_key":"bad017080a485","_type":"span","marks":["deeb4babd25d"],"text":"Brian Sapozhnikov"},{"_key":"bad017080a486","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"d00f37859ff2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"7e7342ee-608b-44b8-98d9-1009d62b5a5a","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"33bf775bb8b9","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/96dcff164387?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"},{"_key":"deeb4babd25d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/bf799bcf96ac?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b4b8c475075a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b4b8c475075a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We have genuinely enjoyed working on this project and learning about the positions and the people behind each of the four tickets. We hope that, no matter the result of the election or the accuracy of our prediction, SixteenThirtySix has sparked the spirit of open data at Harvard."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you would like to view the data that we’ve used to inform our analysis, create our visualizations, and shape our prediction, please visit our "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c81","_type":"span","marks":["e355f3a678ad"],"text":"GitHub"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or contact me at "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c83","_type":"span","marks":["0a70280cc909"],"text":"ckuang@college.harvard.edu"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c84","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e355f3a678ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/sixteenthirtysix"},{"_key":"0a70280cc909","_type":"link","href":"mailto:ckuang@college.harvard.edu"}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"841823efe766","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"841823efe7660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Drumroll, please…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"069cf4897fa6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-fee00b91ce374e3dfb7e6d93217edbc435d62a82-2363x1577-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC Presidential candidate Yasmin Sachee ’18 (right) and running mate Cameron Khansarinia ’18 (left)"},{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As polling closes today, SixteenThirtySix is predicting a victory for Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ’18."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"4cac684766d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4cac684766d60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination."},{"_key":"4cac684766d61","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5836252962fd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5836252962fd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we are confident in our data and methodologies, we acknowledge that predicting elections is an imprecise science, as we saw when even professional pollsters and websites mis-predicted the 2016 American Presidential election. There will always be missing data points and trends that our data may fail to show. Still, we look forward to seeing the election outcome and hope that our predictions shed some light on what makes campaigns win or lose."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3b713c15f16d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3b713c15f16d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"After the election results are announced tonight, we’ll publish a “postmortem” to evaluate the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and determine what we can learn about UC campaigns going forward."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"7d4457a729d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d4457a729d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix wishes to congratulate all of the candidates on their respectful, hard-fought campaigns, and thank them for raising the level of discourse on our campus and for their commitment to improving student life."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6124e09dcec30","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Shameless plug: if you’re interested in open data, government, and data science, we’re working on more projects like this! Drop me a line (ckuang@college.harvard.edu), "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec31","_type":"span","marks":["f81c8e98f8ad"],"text":"join our mailing list"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec32","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", or "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec33","_type":"span","marks":["e83f8e7ff296"],"text":"visit our website"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec34","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to learn more and get involved."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"f81c8e98f8ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/harvard-open-data"},{"_key":"e83f8e7ff296","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"home","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"}],"categories":[{"_key":"2a31f2ade831","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"02089876484d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"02089876484d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix's prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-6e713117cff06cb74db9cb2b4b343ce747758812-950x400-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"c89e25d7e0a4","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]},{"_key":"8794d80ddde6","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"d3d841aa-e1cc-4efb-99d3-d9901fd388e2","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]},{"_key":"2d02821f0e30","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"1a912d38-ad99-49c7-beec-d7368b7a7cb4","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-11-17T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"19dc5d96b8e4","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"f050dd6ef7e2","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"},"subjects":[{"_key":"844fe7fecb22","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction","id":"-9e1c5b6d-a41f-539e-b384-1615c5b84265","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"8faaebad5f00195f52e795d5708d8111","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1681},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"}}}},{"_key":"5becb4bc4a15","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"72f7cc52-4577-41af-aa64-64505da2def9","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj9owA","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:25:15Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:17:45Z","body":[{"_key":"b3822afb4e94","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b3822afb4e940","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This week, almost 7,000 Harvard undergraduates will have the opportunity to vote for UC President and Vice President. Three tickets are running to lead Harvard’s student government: "},{"_key":"b3822afb4e941","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b29f60897c05","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b29f60897c050","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In the fall of 2016, the Harvard Open Data Project ran the first ever data-driven prediction of a UC presidential election, and "},{"_key":"b29f60897c051","_type":"span","marks":["3f8cbcaafdc7"],"text":"correctly predicted the order of the four tickets"},{"_key":"b29f60897c052","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’re hoping to repeat that feat this year. "},{"_key":"b29f60897c053","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"In this article, we’ll look at what polling, social media, endorsements, and fundamentals can tell us about this year’s election."},{"_key":"b29f60897c054","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" In an article published last week, "},{"_key":"b29f60897c055","_type":"span","marks":["15a3303caa71"],"text":"HODP found that Zhang and Boucher may have a small structural advantage going into the race"},{"_key":"b29f60897c056","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", given historical trends in candidates’ houses, previous UC experience, and year in school."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3f8cbcaafdc7","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"15a3303caa71","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"928ce0a0fa91","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"928ce0a0fa910","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So, what do our stats say about who will win? Let’s dive in."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b23e5f91e51b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b23e5f91e51b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b30f3972590c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b30f3972590c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Polling Indicates a Zhang-Boucher Lead"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a98","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da9fbb172a980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Early this week, HODP conducted a relatively unscientific poll of all Harvard undergraduates. The poll asked two questions: a respondent’s year in school, and who they intended to vote for. Due to limited resources and a desire not to distort incentives, we did not provide any reward for filling out the survey. "},{"_key":"da9fbb172a981","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Still, we received 373 respondents"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and we operated under the assumption that the type of people who are likely to vote in the UC election ("},{"_key":"da9fbb172a983","_type":"span","marks":["d1bb2f947209"],"text":"which tends to have very low voter turnout"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a984","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":") are also the type of people who are likely to fill out a survey without an incentive."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d1bb2f947209","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d7febf591625","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a 45% lead in HODP’s poll over their closest competitors, Agbafe and Bervell.","asset":{"_ref":"image-56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a 45% lead in HODP’s poll over their closest competitors, Agbafe and Bervell."},{"_key":"705dabbe79bb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"705dabbe79bb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, we found that Zhang and Boucher enjoy a significant lead over the other two tickets in the polls."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"22d7a9d7e936","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"22d7a9d7e9360","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"66.2% for Zhang and Boucher"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5d870df785ec","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5d870df785ec0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"20.6% for Agbafe and Bervell"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"44f823730339","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"44f8237303390","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"13.1% for Healy and Thakker"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Zhang and Boucher hold a noticeable lead over the other candidates among all four class years at Harvard, as seen below. HODP has found that "},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a1","_type":"span","marks":["094a34cdd984"],"text":"freshmen tend to turn out at higher rates than other classes in UC general elections"},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and we believe this trend will hold in the presidential elections as well (although the official presidential election results do not break out votes by year)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"094a34cdd984","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7992a3a3bd67","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher dominate every class year, but they have stronger results among older students.","asset":{"_ref":"image-1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134-700x433-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher dominate every class year, but they have stronger results among older students."},{"_key":"d09b6ea6313e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d09b6ea6313e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Agbafe and Bervell see their best performance among the freshmen class, and tend to do worse with older voters, while Zhang and Boucher see the opposite trend. That’s all relative, though; Zhang and Boucher lead Agbafe and Bervell by at least 35 percentage points in every class year. Given Zhang and Boucher’s all-round dominance, Agbafe and Bervell will likely see a second place result this week."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd0","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Our polling, while imperfect, does seem to suggest a significant advantage for Zhang and Boucher in this year’s election. The race for runner-up between Agbafe-Bervell and Healy-Thakker is close, but Agbafe-Bervell appear to have a slight edge."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a77684ff5563","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a77684ff55630","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d3b69d240927","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3b69d2409270","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Indicates a Zhang-Boucher Lead"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a1e1459e423","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a1e1459e4230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Outreach and name recognition are crucial components to winning a campaign. "},{"_key":"4a1e1459e4231","_type":"span","marks":["a66beff577f2"],"text":"HODP has found that a solid social media presence was correlated with more votes"},{"_key":"4a1e1459e4232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" in last year’s UC Presidential election. This year, in several different measures, Zhang and Boucher lead the pack in their social media presence. As seen below, in total page likes, Zhang and Boucher had the most, followed by Agbafe and Bervell, with Healy and Thakker rounding out the pack."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"a66beff577f2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"27bb2755-5196-4731-aa9a-927851e9b7a5","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9a08dd1f6a87","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher have a slight advantage in total official page likes.","asset":{"_ref":"image-bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e-700x433-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher have a slight advantage in total official page likes."},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95e0c3164feb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, many Harvard students will change their profile pictures in support of the candidates. We took the sum of all of the likes on supporting profile pictures, counted the number of students who posted in support of a ticket, and calculated the median number of likes per supporting post on Facebook. "},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"On all three measures of social media presence, Zhang and Boucher blew away the competition"},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", most significantly with their massive advantage in total likes, as seen below. In addition, on all three measures, the results were consistent with both total page likes and our earlier polls, with Zhang, Agbafe, and Healy in that order."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5f990f29627f","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a massive advantage in number of total likes on supporting posts.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5-700x431-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a massive advantage in number of total likes on supporting posts."},{"_key":"a516baef0322","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher see a smaller, but still very large, advantage in average likes per supporting post.","asset":{"_ref":"image-f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher see a smaller, but still very large, advantage in average likes per supporting post."},{"_key":"46bd69c01a95","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"46bd69c01a950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f06e9d7c028b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f06e9d7c028b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Potential Issues With These Metrics"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"a4833b041321","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a4833b0413210","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Although the results above seem decisive, they only use Facebook data. Last year, the winning ticket of Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia took advantage of other social media, including a significant investment in buying a Snapchat filter for their campaign. This year, it is plausible that we failed to measure some media presence on other services. For example, some students may have seen the Agbafe-Bervell ticket’s Tinder bot."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b8978142a8a3","_type":"figure","alt":"Agbafe and Bervell used Tinder to attract voters in this year’s campaign.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b-540x929-jpg","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Agbafe and Bervell used Tinder to attract voters in this year’s campaign."},{"_key":"7d4ea720e7fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d4ea720e7fb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to new media, we cannot rule out the possibility of “bubbles.” That means the possibility of relatively small groups of voters liking all of each other’s supporting posts, thus creating thousands of likes in support of a candidate with just a small number of people. Likes in themselves do not necessarily indicate full endorsements, but they are often indicative of support."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e869d5a4b612","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e869d5a4b6120","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Finally, candidates may have solid name recognition offline, too. Healy is well-known on campus for his work with the Open Campus Initiative, a group that brings controversial speakers to campus in its efforts to push freedom of speech at Harvard. Government concentrators may know Agbafe as the co-star of Gov 30’s lecture videos, along with Professor Paul Peterson. While neither of these relate directly to campaigns, outside name recognition may help the candidates in this week’s election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2eaf74f88430","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2eaf74f884300","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"2eaf74f884301","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Our research on social media presence seems to indicate an advantage for Zhang and Boucher, with Agbafe-Bervell following, and Healy-Thakker in third."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"89c726304e0a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"89c726304e0a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"51ff57154394","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"51ff571543940","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Point to a Zhang-Boucher Win"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"1459ba6705b8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1459ba6705b80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"1459ba6705b81","_type":"span","marks":["d9b87f88852b"],"text":"In a postmortem of last year’s election, HODP found that the number of endorsements was generally not very correlated with victory"},{"_key":"1459ba6705b82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". However, given this year’s significant disparity between the candidates, endorsements by UC representatives on Facebook are certainly worth mentioning."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d9b87f88852b","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"27bb2755-5196-4731-aa9a-927851e9b7a5","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"89df866600d7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"89df866600d70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At the time of writing, Zhang and Boucher had 23 endorsements from sitting UC representatives, Agbafe and Bervell had just 1, and Healy and Thakker had none. We excluded the candidates themselves from these counts. Not counting the candidates or current President and VP Sachee and Khansarinia (who are required to be officially neutral), 20 representatives did not endorse a candidate on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c1bd1229f938","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher have a massive lead in UC endorsements on Facebook: they have 23 to Agbafe-Bervell’s 1.","asset":{"_ref":"image-2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher have a massive lead in UC endorsements on Facebook: they have 23 to Agbafe-Bervell’s 1."},{"_key":"5e0c6117e463","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5e0c6117e4630","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to endorsements by sitting UC representatives, "},{"_key":"5e0c6117e4631","_type":"span","marks":["9a21d1e78b96"],"text":"The Harvard Crimson’s editorial board endorsed Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"5e0c6117e4632","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Last year, The Crimson’s endorsed candidates did not ultimately prevail, so while this endorsement may not propel Zhang-Boucher to victory, it certainly will not hurt their candidacy."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"9a21d1e78b96","_type":"link","href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/11/13/staffed-uc-election-2017/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79792f86a852","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79792f86a8520","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"79792f86a8521","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Last year, endorsements did not seem to be a great predictor of electoral success. However, we should not ignore them entirely, and they do seem to suggest an advantage for Zhang and Boucher, again followed by Agbafe and Bervell, with Healy and Thakker in third."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0e1cfcb544a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0e1cfcb544a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e4634bb885af","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e4634bb885af0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Drumroll, please…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"a65722872380","_type":"figure","alt":"Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher are pictured above in a campaign photo.","asset":{"_ref":"image-ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e-1000x1000-jpg","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher are pictured above in a campaign photo."},{"_key":"5971d5d4c70a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5971d5d4c70a0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Based on our analysis, we project that Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher will be elected the next President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"5d48add7baa7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5d48add7baa70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Polls, social media, and endorsements all point heavily toward a Zhang and Boucher victory. This result would also be consistent with our "},{"_key":"5d48add7baa71","_type":"span","marks":["e6847942d5c0"],"text":"historical analysis last week"},{"_key":"5d48add7baa72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", which showed that Zhang and Boucher’s UC experience and houses have historically correlated with victory."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e6847942d5c0","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9438b6da835d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9438b6da835d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"After Zhang-Boucher, we will likely see Agbafe and Bervell in second place; we project Healy and Thakker to finish in third place."},{"_key":"9438b6da835d1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" It’s worth noting that there were few apparent shifts in the campaign: while the poll was open, from Sunday through Tuesday, there was little movement in the tickets’ vote shares beyond small, noisy fluctuations."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d216b514b557","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d216b514b5570","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95a3d0cf1edd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95a3d0cf1edd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Vote Margin"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e54b20e9545c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Readers should be cautious and remember that all forecasts have some error, including this one. In addition, given the UC’s choice of the Hare-Clark electoral system, which is a Single Transferable Vote system, the results can be a bit harder to predict. Our poll only examines first choice votes, but under the Hare-Clark system, the winner in first-choice votes may not necessarily win the election. In fact, in past years, "},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c1","_type":"span","marks":["7d9e7b9f553a"],"text":"the winner has rarely won a majority of first-choice votes"},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"7d9e7b9f553a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5a8f95f5cfc0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5a8f95f5cfc00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Based on a 99% confidence interval we calculated using our raw polling data, we predict that Zhang and Boucher will win between 59.9% and 72.5% of the first-choice votes. The confidence intervals for Agbafe-Bervell’s and Healy-Thakker’s vote totals overlap, so the polls do not clearly indicate which ticket will win 2nd place — but our other metrics suggest that Agbafe-Bervell have the edge."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"455de9856e9e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"455de9856e9e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"73bc3828168a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"73bc3828168a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Check back after the election!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"752ff777e3ba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once the polls close and the winner is announced, "},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba1","_type":"span","marks":["d57843352b61"],"text":"check our blog"},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for a follow-up analysis, where we’ll see what parts of our methodology worked and which fell flat. Thanks for reading!"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d57843352b61","_type":"link","href":"https://medium.com/harvard-open-data-project"}],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"6bf4b3c23cd6","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"ff80de938344","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ff80de9383440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven prediction of Harvard’s 2017 contest for student body president."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"The three pairs of candidates debated this past Sunday in Harvard Hall. [Photo: Neel Mehta]","asset":{"_ref":"image-b19e9936114fa54865c83dfe9fcaf72d85bc2c05-2000x1500-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"79905a9186c1","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-11-14T06:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"c2f19e327ec8","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"0a58fbe42eb7","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"the-data-is-in-here-s-who-will-win-the-uc-presidential-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"bd83d59127f2","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"The Data Is In: Here’s Who Will Win the UC Presidential Election","id":"-95f94838-cb2d-5fda-8d53-41baf852dedb","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"9af2891af64533fe1d6cd1d22052f5b5","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":366},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"the-data-is-in-here-s-who-will-win-the-uc-presidential-election"}}}},{"_key":"dc9dcb2ace34","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2018/9/10/uc-voting-system/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ec8be38c5266","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ec8be38c52660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"With Borda, the ticket with the largest number of first-place rankings is not guaranteed to win if a competitor has a sufficiently large number of second and third place votes. In light of the fact that each voter’s preferences matter and can affect the outcome of this year’s election, our analysis of polling data will consider the total value of the tickets from all votes they receive, not just the number of first-choice votes as was done in previous years. In consultation with professional electoral analysts, HODP determined that Borda allows for strategic voting; to mitigate this risk, we published this article just before the end of the voting period to avoid influencing voter behavior."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"da4cc7c49ab3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da4cc7c49ab30","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Now let’s dig in…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"680d882d1ea4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"680d882d1ea40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ticket Composition"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"99bd3de5a3e8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"99bd3de5a3e80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project analyzed the "},{"_key":"99bd3de5a3e81","_type":"span","marks":["8b8d390fa145"],"text":"common features"},{"_key":"99bd3de5a3e82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" of successful Presidential tickets since 2005. The two most significant factors seem to be past UC experience and the candidates’ houses. Where do the 2018 tickets stand on these points?"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"8b8d390fa145","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjBGpO","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:25:07Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:33:38Z","body":[{"_key":"957368b366cf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"957368b366cf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, three tickets are vying to be the next President and Vice President of the Undergraduate Council (UC), Harvard’s top student government post. Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher have thrown their hats in the ring."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e458982d5ff90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project used surveys and social media data to "},{"_key":"e458982d5ff91","_type":"span","marks":["1c12e1f300c5"],"text":"correctly predict the outcome of the UC Presidential election"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’ll do a similar project this year (stay tuned!), but we want to take it a step further — we want to see what we can learn about the election before campaigning even starts."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"1c12e1f300c5","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c598eaf33975","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c598eaf339750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To figure out who the favorites might be heading into the campaign, we at HODP dove into past election data. Popular election of UC presidents began in 1996, but "},{"_key":"c598eaf339751","_type":"span","marks":["e18ea3ddbb65"],"text":"until 2005, presidents and vice presidents were elected separately."},{"_key":"c598eaf339752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Though there is lots of interesting data from before 2005 "},{"_key":"c598eaf339753","_type":"span","marks":["97856fe8b951"],"text":"(including a presidential campaign by CS50 Professor David Malan)"},{"_key":"c598eaf339754","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", HODP’s analysis is only based on the 2005–2016 elections, since these have the same rules as the current electoral system."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e18ea3ddbb65","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2004/12/10/glazer-nichols-elected-in-split-vote/"},{"_key":"97856fe8b951","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1997/12/4/candidates-debate-issues-pcandidates-vying-for/?page=1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7ae4a41e3051","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7ae4a41e30510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In this article, we’ll look into what past results can tell us about this year’s race."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a2ffac28ad28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a2ffac28ad280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"53d188e01af6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"53d188e01af60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experience matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f1","_type":"span","marks":["89c15a51a1bf"],"text":"According to The Harvard Crimson,"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" by 2007, no UC presidential candidate without prior UC experience had ever won. Since then, the results have been remarkably similar. The only UC outsider to win the presidency has been Samuel Clark, who in 2013 rode to power on a joke ticket that promised to resign immediately upon being elected."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"89c15a51a1bf","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2007/12/10/with-turnout-low-sundquist-sarafa-wins-uc/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC has been popularly electing presidents for 21 years. But only once, in 2013, has a presidential candidate without prior UC experience won the top spot in Harvard’s student government."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, since 2005, 11 of the 12 winning vice presidential candidates have had UC experience. The only exception was Clark’s running mate, Gus Mayopoulos."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7c0769c5b202","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c0769c5b2020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC insiders seem to dominate the presidential elections. “Insider-insider” tickets (those in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience) only constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time. That is, insider-insider tickets have won every single year besides 2013."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1d2dc80a9f92","_type":"figure","alt":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election."},{"_key":"68a0d3e33851","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"68a0d3e338510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Obviously, these results do not mean that a ticket with an outsider candidate can’t ’win. Our sample size is small, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Plus, a pair of candidates without any UC experience showed in 2013 that outsiders can win. And let’s not forget Donald Trump, who won the American Presidency in 2016 with zero prior governmental experience."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9264158705b7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9264158705b70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our findings on experience aren’t perfect, but they indicate an advantage for experienced tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"130bff6db299","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"130bff6db2990","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"130bff6db2991","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" They’re the only ticket where both candidates have served on the UC (both, in fact, are leaders on the UC’s Executive Committee). Agbafe also serves on the UC, but his running mate, Bervell, does not. Healy does not have prior UC experience, but is well known on campus from the Open Campus Initiative; his running mate, Thakker, currently serves on the UC."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a485ff95c1e4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a485ff95c1e40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f08feebc9886","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f08feebc98860","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class year matters… but less than you might think"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f9dc06e6a592","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9dc06e6a5920","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors have dominated UC elections. In 11 of the past 12 years (or 91.7% of elections), the UC President and VP have both been juniors. (In the other year, 2006, the President was a junior but the VP was a sophomore.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"50a76e162cae","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"50a76e162cae0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no non-junior has ever been elected UC President. And only once, in 2006, was a non-junior vice presidential candidate elected."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"92b9cabfee67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"92b9cabfee670","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These data would suggest that students look for UC Presidents that have spent more time at Harvard, possibly because that gives them a deeper knowledge of the institution. (Why juniors and not seniors? UC Presidential terms are for a calendar year, so seniors usually can’t run, because by the time they take office in the spring they only have 1 semester left.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"545fb50d5873","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"545fb50d58730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But the junior advantage might not be all that surprising. The vast majority (94.7%) of presidential candidates and most (81.6%) of the vice presidential candidates are juniors, so there’s a pretty limited pool of non-juniors who could win to begin with! So, to us, it’s unclear whether number of years at Harvard is a significant factor in electoral outcomes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cc071df3466","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cc071df34660","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: nobody."},{"_key":"2cc071df34661","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" This year, all six of the presidential and vice presidential candidates come from the junior class, so this class year advantage does not make an impact. It’s worth noting, though, that Parth Thakker is a social senior (originally class of ’18, now ‘19)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"279ab39e5048","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"279ab39e50480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There might be a “Quad advantage”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"055bbeab4c82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"055bbeab4c820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"HODP recorded the houses of past UC presidential and vice presidential candidates, and found that a surprisingly high number of them come from just a few houses. For example, Adams has produced 1 presidential candidate and no vice presidential candidates since 2005, and Leverett has produced 1 of each since 2005. But Currier has produced 6 presidential candidates and 4 vice presidential candidates since 2005."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cd55239dbdf","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-ae206673ace05ba18080d517a0d65adea38821f3-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"c88b1a0dcb5a","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-7b87748543f4db26ba7b6e372420e226dbb8b151-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"df6a71f21ca5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"df6a71f21ca50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Look closely and you’ll notice that candidates from the Quad houses seem to be much more successful than candidates from the river houses. Since 2005, 50% of presidential candidates from the Quad have won, while only 20% of presidential candidates from the river have won. As for Dudley House, only one presidential candidate since 2005 has run from that house, and he won!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"046abb7110f9","_type":"figure","alt":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005.","asset":{"_ref":"image-00238b4188f200902f609a83ee4b2c0ad5bb8a3e-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005."},{"_key":"5f156af63d93","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5f156af63d930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, more UC Presidents have come from the Quad than from the River, even though three times as many students live on the River. Again, we have a very small sample here, so we shouldn’t draw too many definitive conclusions from this, but there could potentially be some “quad advantage” going on. On the other hand, we found that only one 1 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the Quad — all the rest came from the River!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27823ea33d72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27823ea33d720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Given our data since 2005, it seems like the winning combo might be a presidential candidate from the Quad with a vice presidential candidate from the River."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The hypothetical “Quad advantage” gets even more interesting when you mix in the factor of UC experience. Since 2005, 10 juniors from the Quad with UC experience have run for UC President. Six of those candidates have won. Three of those candidates lost to "},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"other"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" juniors from the Quad with UC experience. The tenth candidate got 2nd place to 2013’s joke ticket. In other words:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no presidential candidate from the Quad with UC experience has ever lost to a candidate from the River (except in 2013’s wave election)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"9208718d02cc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9208718d02cc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Qualitatively, this advantage is also plausible. The Quad is well-known as a close-knit community on campus, so Quad residents might be more likely to know and vote for a UC presidential candidate from any of the 3 Quad houses. In addition, "},{"_key":"9208718d02cc1","_type":"span","marks":["acc476e19b6c"],"text":"HODP has found that the Quad consistently has higher turnout in general UC representative elections."},{"_key":"9208718d02cc2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We don’t have data on presidential elections stratified by house, but assuming that these trends hold true, that higher turnout might also explain the “Quad advantage.”"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"acc476e19b6c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/HODP%20UC%20election%20data%20analysis%2C%20fall%202017.xlsx"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As usual, our sample size is small, and it’s entirely possible that the trend we’ve seen is solely due to chance. Nonetheless, this is an interesting finding."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d420249f3a1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d420249f3a10","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"2d420249f3a11","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" If there is a “Quad advantage”, it would help the Zhang-Boucher ticket. Zhang hails from Cabot House, while Boucher lives in Mather. That’s the prized Quad-River combo discussed above! The other two tickets have all-River candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2661c22f1a97","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2661c22f1a970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb2eb635f497","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb2eb635f4970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"What we know heading into the campaign — and what we don’t"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"2c79615005b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2c79615005b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our sample is quite small, and past results don’t guarantee future ones. Plus, unexpected things can always happen in elections — if you need a reminder, just remember Trump’s election a year ago!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, with all the usual caveats, we can observe some general trends from past years that might be helpful in looking at the 2017 presidential election. "},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If you’re champing at the bit to know how this year’s election might go, early speculation based on past results might suggest a slight advantage for Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" That said, it’s still far too early to make any real predictions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d046bda8d09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d046bda8d090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How will the election actually shape up? We’ll be back next week with our second annual polls and analyses to see if we can figure that out. Stay tuned!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ca49c2b8a7e4","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"52541916baea","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52541916baea0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Trends from past UC Presidential elections, and what we can tell about this year’s contest… before campaigning even starts!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"A debate from the 2016 Undergraduate Council elections. (Photo credit: Aridenne A. Dews for the Harvard Crimson)","asset":{"_ref":"image-7d8ec5140bec95d7ddfb50e84758dd9cd4c32227-1500x899-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"b4b66d8b9951","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-11-05T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"},"subjects":[{"_key":"318b69fd6609","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Here’s What Successful UC Presidential Candidates Had in Common","id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"4d832ac77e162c87b1400c633556ae53","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":264},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e93bcba81e59","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e93bcba81e590","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experienced tickets do best."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b02ec121721b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b02ec121721b0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The trend:"},{"_key":"b02ec121721b1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Tickets in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"936b307750bf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"936b307750bf0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The tickets:"},{"_key":"936b307750bf1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Two of this year’s tickets are composed of two non-UC members (Daniel and Samyra, John and Sabrina). This is the largest number of UC-outsider tickets since 2007. The other two tickets are comprised of UC insiders."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"391a52f55190","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"391a52f551900","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors tend to win."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"2e3eefd10486","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2e3eefd104860","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The trend:"},{"_key":"2e3eefd104861","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Tickets with juniors running for both president and vice president constitute 85% of total tickets since 2005, and they’ve won 92.3% of the time. Only 12.5% of tickets since 2005 have included a sophomore (always running as vice president) and of those, only 7% have won. However, since most candidates who run are juniors, the effect of this metric on results is unclear."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ffb312b2e4ba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ffb312b2e4ba0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The tickets:"},{"_key":"ffb312b2e4ba1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" This year’s tickets mostly consist of two Juniors: Daniel and Samyra are the only Junior-Sophomore pair."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c9723000c9db","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c9723000c9db0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quad representation is ideal."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f90238e3496d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f90238e3496d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The trend:"},{"_key":"f90238e3496d1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Since 2005, presidential candidates from the Quad have accounted for only 33% of total candidates but have won 53% of the time; 64% of presidential candidates have been from the River but have won 38% of the time. On the other hand, 11 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the River. It seems the ideal ticket has a presidential candidate from the Quad and a vice-presidential candidate from the River."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d1256259b84","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d1256259b840","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The tickets:"},{"_key":"4d1256259b841","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Two of this year’s tickets meet the Quad-River condition: Nadine and Arnav are from Cabot and Eliot, and Danny and Samyra live in Currier and Lowell. The other two tickets are River-River: John and Sabrina are from Leverett and Dunster, and Sruthi and Julia live in Winthrop and Lowell."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"eb5ffabf52e6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"eb5ffabf52e60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Advantage: Nadine and Arnav."},{"_key":"eb5ffabf52e61","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" In terms of ticket composition, Nadine and Arnav are on top: they have UC experience and represent both the Quad and the River. The ticket with the most adverse ticket composition is John and Sabrina. However, since UC experience seems to be a more consistent indicator of success than house representation, we rank Sruthi and Julia second and Daniel and Samyra third in terms of ticket composition."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"98cfa29e607e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"98cfa29e607e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"It’s important to note that these trends, while useful, are not guaranteed to hold true each year. For example, a "},{"_key":"98cfa29e607e1","_type":"span","marks":["470095ab79e5"],"text":"joke ticket won the 2013 election"},{"_key":"98cfa29e607e2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", even though both candidates lacked UC experience and lived in River houses…"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"470095ab79e5","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2013/11/25/uc-joke-students-reflect/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"14a82f90c3d5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"14a82f90c3d50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Polling"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"d1b1aad1ffbe","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d1b1aad1ffbe0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"From November 7 to November 11, we conducted an online poll of Harvard undergraduates. We asked respondents to select their class (freshman, junior, sophomore, or senior) and rank the tickets from first to fourth. "},{"_key":"d1b1aad1ffbe1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"We received 264 responses."},{"_key":"d1b1aad1ffbe2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We believe that this sample is representative of the overall voting population because we assume that people who are more likely to respond to the poll are also more likely to vote in the election, which historically has low turnout."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"0c91cc1599aa","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0c91cc1599aa0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Distribution of Voters’ Ranked Preferences"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"4dc8f8f71958","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d-1313x631-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEuZq9W","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:36:55Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:36:55Z","assetId":"36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":2.080824088748019,"height":631,"width":1313},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#575f64","foreground":"#fff","population":0.02,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c4404","foreground":"#fff","population":0.05,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#70a653","foreground":"#fff","population":1.75,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c5cbc9","foreground":"#000","population":1.26,"title":"#000"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#fcdc54","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#70a653","foreground":"#fff","population":1.75,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#ed1b27","foreground":"#fff","population":0.04,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d-1313x631.png","sha1hash":"36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d","size":70115,"uploadId":"4V9cFlo4bMBCI9qB2YodDqZ7iBaEDZQh","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d-1313x631.png","id":"image-36262904cf144d0876b46def1fbe2e44c404168d-1313x631-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"d37b95e69dd8e22b84bdb14cdf0c13ef","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":596},"parent":null},"caption":"Sruthi and Julia won the majority of first-place votes, while Daniel and Samyra show a slim lead in second-place votes."},{"_key":"e74fd59abbf2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e74fd59abbf20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We found that:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4194e170339a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4194e170339a0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Sruthi and Julia received a clear majority (52%) of first-place votes, followed by Daniel and Samyra (27%), Nadine and Arnav (15%), and John and Sabrina (6%)."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"568696aac2dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"568696aac2dd0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Daniel and Samyra received the most (28%) second-place votes, but far from a majority. They were followed closely by John and Sabrina (27%), Sruthi and Julia (24%), and Nadine and Arnav (21%)."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cf9d9d52fb2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cf9d9d52fb20","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Nadine and Arnav had the largest number of third-place votes (38%)."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"24611e0b7581","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"24611e0b75810","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"John and Sabrina were the most common fourth-place vote (36%)."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"136be0da01b5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"136be0da01b50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Total Ticket Value"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"66cc8d3dd075","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"66cc8d3dd0750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We calculated the total ticket value by multiplying the number of first-place, second-place, third-place, and fourth-place votes for each ticket by 1, 0.5, 0.33, and 0 respectively and adding these values. Here’s what we found:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6247dabc26ef","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6247dabc26ef0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Sruthi and Julia earned 171.94 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"0b1b905c727a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0b1b905c727a0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Daniel and Samyra earned 126.96 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2745849d75c6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2745849d75c60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Nadine and Arnav earned 105.33 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8ae1cae5855c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8ae1cae5855c0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"John and Sabrina earned 78.89 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"027fa95bf109","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621-1313x705-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjBfNe","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:37:27Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:37:27Z","assetId":"cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.8624113475177304,"height":705,"width":1313},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#185a80","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#2384bc","foreground":"#fff","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c20b0d","foreground":"#fff","population":4.45,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#abc3d6","foreground":"#000","population":0.71,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#efd584","foreground":"#000","population":0.32,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#698cb3","foreground":"#fff","population":0.2,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c20b0d","foreground":"#fff","population":4.45,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621-1313x705.png","sha1hash":"cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621","size":81422,"uploadId":"yZMx778M90WTaalz3hHf01AMD4ghQHT5","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621-1313x705.png","id":"image-cc302c55d81d75a87666f7da12724aa94f85f621-1313x705-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"eab06cff6f70875fca4310d3a0d85819","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1260},"parent":null},"caption":"The top tickets (Sruthi and Julia, Daniel and Samyra) received most of their value from first-place votes."},{"_key":"56470901a90b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"56470901a90b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When we broke down the tickets’ total value by the points won from each ranking, we discovered two interesting results. Firstly, total value was directly related to the proportion of total value contributed by first-place votes. Secondly, total value was inversely related to the proportion of total value contributed by non first-place votes. In other words, the ticket with the greatest point total (Sruthi and Julia) earned the most value from first-place votes and the least value from the combination of second, third, and fourth-place votes, while the reverse was true for the ticket with the lowest point total (John and Sabrina). The key implication is that when no ticket claims a significant lead in second-place and third-place votes, the number of first-place votes will likely determine who wins."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f862968e69f6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f862968e69f60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class-Weighted Ticket Value"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"16cc1061c045","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"16cc1061c0450","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Next, we adjusted the total ticket value calculation by assigning weights to class. Each year, "},{"_key":"16cc1061c0451","_type":"span","marks":["d022ddfd2728"],"text":"freshmen make up most of the voters "},{"_key":"16cc1061c0452","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"in the election, so we weighed their votes more heavily than those of upperclassmen. The specific weights correspond to each class’ voter turnout percentage in last year’s fall UC elections. Here are our results for the total points of each ticket weighted by class:"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d022ddfd2728","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoc4WM","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:37Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:09:42Z","body":[{"_key":"e901d17ee895","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e901d17ee8950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A new school year is upon us, and with it comes another round of Undergraduate Council elections. The UC elects three representatives from each of the 12 upperclass Houses and 4 freshman yards— plus the president and VP, who are elected separately, making a group of 50."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"30e774bdf693","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"30e774bdf6930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC is a major force on campus. "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6931","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"The Finance Committee distributes"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6932","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6933","_type":"span","marks":["strong","fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"$300,000 a year"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6934","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6935","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"to student clubs,"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6936","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and UC leaders run everything from Thanksgiving shuttles to menstrual hygiene product installation in bathrooms. So it’s important that students are engaged in the UC elections."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fc283c37a2c6","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://uc.fas.harvard.edu/grants/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"82a82f652014","_type":"figure","alt":"UC's Logo","asset":{"_ref":"image-ff2e2766e322ff60ad4325f6cf39ba3df01bc180-335x335-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC's Logo"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe042","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0420","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, last semester, we reported about "},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0421","_type":"span","marks":["ff1182860332"],"text":"how literally nobody voted in the Quincy midterm elections"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0422","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", among other signs of disturbingly low turnout. While it seems turnout this semester has improved (Quincy literally improved “infinitely,” if you will, since they jumped up from 0), unfortunately, there are still some glaring issues. Let’s jump into them."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"ff1182860332","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"52108686e7e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52108686e7e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7af98801e753","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7af98801e7530","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our open data source"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"32428da94729","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"32428da947290","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At the Harvard Open Data Project, we are committed to holding Harvard’s institutions accountable through open information. We obtained official turnout data from Harvard’s Election Commission, "},{"_key":"32428da947291","_type":"span","marks":["3b9682e9e7af"],"text":"which we have now made public,"},{"_key":"32428da947292","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and below we’ll share our insights in the hopes of shedding light on the voting process and the outcome."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3b9682e9e7af","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/UC%20elections%20fall%202017.pdf"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"28724a72e130","_type":"figure","alt":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon.","asset":{"_ref":"image-b632d0ce06ef69ab1b017f4501fc4e010ef9697e-522x403-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon."},{"_key":"e02be3a22769","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e02be3a227690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite having 402 eligible voters, Dunster’s turnout was abysmally low. However, this is understandable given than "},{"_key":"e02be3a227691","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"only 1 person was running in the first place"},{"_key":"e02be3a227692","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Junior Gevin Reynolds ran unopposed and was met with an expected victory. (To his credit, he earned 11 votes.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4dde35564d9d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4dde35564d9d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Anyone in Dunster could have written in their name and won a seat on the Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This wasn’t an isolated incident. Adams, Dudley, Lowell, Mather, and Quincy were all no-contests as well. Everyone who ran got a spot. In fact, the most competitive race in the upperclass Houses was Pforzheimer, where 4 people vied for 2 open spots, an “admission” rate of 50%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"081547e08740","_type":"figure","alt":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive.","asset":{"_ref":"image-4f92a1a693ad09387ded29dcaa24312d4cd99517-649x401-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive."},{"_key":"faa03c038ebe","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"faa03c038ebe0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7a29dfe62008","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7a29dfe620080","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Why the enthusiasm gap?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We brainstormed several hypotheses for why some houses had such abysmal turnout and why some fared better. The hypothesis most supported by the data was that more-contested elections attracted more voters than less-contested ones. This trend was generally true, but there were many exceptions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e3459b16e08c","_type":"figure","alt":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board.","asset":{"_ref":"image-442a96377f3629cfe06b8ca9ae4451bc29b61d36-632x400-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board."},{"_key":"5161a49729e8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5161a49729e80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Winthrop had 5 candidates in the running, but only 21 of the 410 eligible students, or 5.12%, voted. "},{"_key":"5161a49729e81","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Mather had virtually no choice regarding their UC representative, yet their turnout (8.92%) still surpassed Winthrop’s."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8b10459ada11","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8b10459ada110","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In general, though, the houses with more candidates did seem to have higher turnout."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6102293b62b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6102293b62b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8c5af6b16149","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8c5af6b161490","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Insurgence in Eliot"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"84ba6c8cdc4e","_type":"figure","alt":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)","asset":{"_ref":"image-ec16264d92583cd2b042962d44850c10766874e2-660x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)"},{"_key":"39592c39c2c9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"39592c39c2c90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This fall’s Eliot UC election produced a record voter turnout of 30.25%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2a08557a702f","_type":"figure","alt":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year.","asset":{"_ref":"image-3178ad957341266143bf64f0b3f90167aec58b66-600x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year."},{"_key":"1c135c175ccc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1c135c175ccc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In Eliot, 4 sophomores faced off against 1 senior for 3 coveted positions. One of the winning candidates, Arnav Agrawal, ran on a platform of providing free menstrual health supplies within the house and improving mental health services. These issues were also central to Agrawal’s freshman year successful UC platform. Perhaps this exciting race will set a precedent for other candidates in future elections."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d689117c998b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d689117c998b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Who knew freshmen were so politically engaged?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c7a1908ea9a7","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-e56489fdf41a69d0b27173655e617b4a94185992-700x229-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"d61473ade166","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d61473ade1660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The freshman class had both the greatest amount of candidates and the largest voter turnout by a wide margin. Even the freshman yard with the lowest turnout, Ivy Yard (39.29%), had a better voter turnout than the upperclassman house with the highest turnout, Eliot (30.25%)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bd67bb550030","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bd67bb5500300","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, the freshman class’s voter turnout was a striking 45.38%. This relatively high turnout was more than three times as high as the overall voter turnout for upperclassmen, which was just 14.10%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"da5167b2328c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da5167b2328c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A call to action"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"85ac75b452c5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"85ac75b452c50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we might make fun of it sometimes, low voter turnout is a huge problem on campus. The UC was created specifically to give students, elected by their peers, the ability to change the Harvard experience. Failure to participate in this process is a waste of a valuable opportunity. Casting your vote is the easiest way to ensure that your voice is being heard and that you are adequately represented."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a232107a131e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a232107a131e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Most students will spend 4 years in college. It’s time to make them count."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ee91e16176a9","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-f3e77a3665decac18113a79b6f5980d7fbb9ea51-971x619-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"7a2eceb07622","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"c4d23029-6e38-4f6b-8135-b03c9211fb0f","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-02T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"213f2c342fd3","_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"380301fbf88b","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"You, Too, Could Have Won The Dunster UC Election","id":"-ae5094fb-df08-5c27-8c5a-7f2e8b72dc25","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"3d846f08eec6d1437258df3d4f408b31","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1686},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"239d1f59c28f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"239d1f59c28f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Sruthi and Julia earned 43.11 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d8c84054ebe6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8c84054ebe60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Daniel and Samyra earned 34.51 points."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"eac379cafb09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"eac379cafb090","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Nadine and Arnav earned 26.12 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and Julia dominate in points among all classes, and the largest proportion of their total value comes from freshmen."},{"_key":"0d586ceda1ba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0d586ceda1ba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Even when we account for the importance of winning freshman votes, the same ticket rankings observed in the unweighted total ticket value calculations hold. However, we noticed that the gap between the winning and runner-up tickets narrows, and, similarly, the difference between the third and fourth-place tickets is reduced. This is likely explained by the fact that the top ticket (Sruthi and Julia) received only a slightly larger point value from freshmen than the second-place ticket (Daniel and Samyra), and the same is true for the comparison between the third (Nadine and Arnav) and fourth-place (John and Sabrina) tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"124ec193b6b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"124ec193b6b90","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Advantage: Sruthi and Julia."},{"_key":"124ec193b6b91","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Our polling data puts Sruthi and Julia on top: they have a significant lead over the other candidates in first-place rankings (which are worth the greatest amount of points, boosting their total value) and they extract the most point value from each class (especially freshmen, who are critical to winning the election). The data puts Daniel and Samyra in second. Even though they have the second highest share of first-place votes, they are significantly behind Sruthi and Julia. They also have the greatest number of second-place votes, but not by much. Since Daniel and Samyra are not capturing enough of the second and third-place votes to outweigh Sruthi and Julia’s significant first-place vote lead, we rank them second. Finally, Nadine and Arnav beat out John and Sabrina. Even though Nadine and Arnav are narrowly surpassed by John and Sabrina in second-place rankings, Nadine and Arnav win substantially more first-place and third-place votes, putting them in third position."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ad1e7b1793e1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ad1e7b1793e10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"83f0b9d0367f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83f0b9d0367f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In past elections, "},{"_key":"83f0b9d0367f1","_type":"span","marks":["c230bfbaad40"],"text":"social media presence and name recognition"},{"_key":"83f0b9d0367f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" have been important indicators of candidates’ success. We tracked each ticket’s Facebook presence from Tuesday November 6 to Monday November 12."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c230bfbaad40","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"27bb2755-5196-4731-aa9a-927851e9b7a5","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmollp0","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:56Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T06:28:43Z","body":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The campaign for President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council kicks off this week! At the time of writing, "},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b1","_type":"span","marks":["634a8da32e48"],"text":"three tickets have thrown their hats in the ring"},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":": Catherine Zhang & Nick Boucher, Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, and Conor Healy & Parth Thakker. It’s shaping up to be a competitive race."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"634a8da32e48","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeNa6e1xt9D8oXnYv8G6C7B9xY3WQvYiN8kiq9IyISkrduNfw/viewform"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1982c24f70e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1982c24f70e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So what can the tickets do to set themselves apart?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ceb31331e51d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d1","_type":"span","marks":["fd42ab003c3c"],"text":"the Harvard Open Data Project (HODP) successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential election"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and in doing so, we gathered data to form hypotheses about what strategies correlated with a ticket’s electoral success. "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d3","_type":"span","marks":["ef621d081710"],"text":"Chris Kuang of HODP provided a detailed analysis of the results"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Here, we’ll recap our biggest findings and how this year’s candidates can use them to their advantage."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fd42ab003c3c","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ef621d081710","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78a467c31a14","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78a467c31a140","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For reference, "},{"_key":"78a467c31a141","_type":"span","marks":["3bf0b1376686"],"text":"here are the vote tallies from last year:"},{"_key":"78a467c31a142","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3bf0b1376686","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"753c38065378","_type":"figure","alt":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander.","asset":{"_ref":"image-46cf2c6b9dd073c052f0f16103995f7d78550cd9-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander."},{"_key":"8340814f542d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8340814f542d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"a51d6c4eb728","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a51d6c4eb7280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7da56c4cae310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social media outreach seems to be one of the most important factors — if not "},{"_key":"7da56c4cae311","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"the"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae312","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" most important — in predicting a candidate’s success in the UC presidential election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ded8349cb715","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ded8349cb7150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, we measured social media outreach in two ways. We looked at the total number of likes on a ticket’s official Facebook page. We also considered the sum of likes on profile pictures featuring a ticket’s "},{"_key":"ded8349cb7151","_type":"span","marks":["8d708df1dee8"],"text":"promotional “frame” on Facebook"},{"_key":"ded8349cb7152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"8d708df1dee8","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://developers.facebook.com/products/camera-effects/frame-studio/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"be4f8462abf60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ranking the tickets by either of these metrics gives "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf61","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"exactly the same"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"order"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" as the actual vote tallies (that is, the greater vote-getters also got more social media engagement every single time). Social media success is very strongly correlated with electoral success — but let’s not forget that correlation does not imply causation."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d656beeb8e20","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on official Facebook pages.","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on official Facebook pages."},{"_key":"947ee2170142","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign.","asset":{"_ref":"image-f9b4bb8fe0405fbdd571c392faf2b8755b418796-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign."},{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you create a ranking of the tickets based on either of these metrics, it produces the exact final ranking of the candidates in the actual election results. (Now is likely a good time to remind readers that correlation does not imply causation.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our analysis indicates that gaining serious name recognition through both a popular Facebook page and getting a wide network of Harvard students to change their profile pictures in support is key to winning the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"f819be327c28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f819be327c280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on Freshmen"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb1","_type":"span","marks":["bd26cb5a449e"],"text":"Freshmen consistently turn out at far higher rates than upperclassmen do in UC elections"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", both in the fall and the midterms. While we don’t have stratified turnout data by class for last year’s presidential election, the only class year that Yasmin and Cameron won were the freshmen, so it is reasonable to infer that the freshmen had high turnout relative to other classes. In addition, from qualitative interviews with fellow students, upperclassmen are far more likely to already know a candidate personally and have made up their mind. On the other hand, it is likely that fewer freshmen will know the candidates on a personal level and will be more open to consider all candidates."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"bd26cb5a449e","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e08d02be7d26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e08d02be7d260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For these reasons, personally meeting freshmen seems to provide the greatest return on investment for a candidate’s time. In last year’s (relatively unscientific) HODP election poll, the ranking of candidates among freshman exactly matched the final election results. In addition, the winning pair, Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia, knocked on freshman doors, though they were not the only candidate pair to do so."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"424f9fed4218","_type":"figure","alt":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class.","asset":{"_ref":"image-790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class."},{"_key":"98cfec411ebf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"98cfec411ebf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Upperclassmen matter, too, but there’s some evidence that spending additional time with freshmen can yield great results. This conclusion is based on the traditionally higher freshman turnout and the decreased likelihood of freshmen having made up their minds through personal relationships."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Don’t Really Matter"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a34139cfb720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When campaigning to be president of the UC, it might seem natural to spend time schmoozing with members of the UC and leaders of student organizations. While this is likely valuable to some degree, endorsements were not a great predictor of final election results. Last year, a ranking of endorsements from student organizations (weighted based on organization size) would have predicted a win by Eduardo Gonzalez and Alex Popovski, who ultimately came in second. A ranking of endorsements from UC representatives would have predicted a win by Scott Ely and Evan Bonsall, who finished in third. Finally, "},{"_key":"4a34139cfb721","_type":"span","marks":["5755216b643d"],"text":"The Crimson Editorial Board endorsed Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb722","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" last fall."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5755216b643d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4370830c499e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4370830c499e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, none of these metrics would have correctly predicted the results of the election, though this does not necessarily imply there isn’t a causal relationship between endorsements and voting."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5eb7547d2ed0","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations.","asset":{"_ref":"image-0b3a9ce30bdd1e8f3af25cecf8b0b87be5c1c62c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations."},{"_key":"6ca0894d5b66","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016.","asset":{"_ref":"image-416598b0e59c5c6d66f891b0c732b77986363902-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016."},{"_key":"1311161179a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1311161179a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates should be cautious not to focus too much on wooing student leaders, and instead focus on individual voters."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Money Allocation Matters More than Total Spending"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When we think about national politics, we often think that campaign spending strongly correlates with electoral success. However, this relationship does not necessarily hold for Harvard’s UC presidential elections. Last year, the winning pair was third out of four tickets in total spending."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates are permitted to spend up to $200 on their campaigns, and "},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba1","_type":"span","marks":["70967d2b89ad"],"text":"two pairs were within $5 of this amount last year."},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" However, the winning pair was the one that spent the bulk of their funding on social media and a gimmick targeted at freshmen. Yasmin and Cameron spent a total of $163.73 on their campaign, $78.23 of which was spent on social media campaigns (Snapchat filter and Facebook promotions). Although they were third in total spending, they led the pack in spending on social media, which, as we’ve seen above, is strongly correlated with electoral success."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"70967d2b89ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/12/9/uc-candidates-spending-breakdown/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4baba840e0a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4baba840e0a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Yasmin and Cameron spent $30 on puzzle pieces, which they gave out to voters, particularly freshmen. This giveaway may have helped them at the ballot box. It’s worth noting that the second-place ticket, Eduardo and Alex, was the only other campaign to come up with a free giveaway gimmick (stickers, in this case)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"45c7362f6676","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"45c7362f66760","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yasmin and Cameron’s smart move to focus their funding on social media, name recognition, and freshmen may have contributed to their success in the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d3d99a798bf5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3d99a798bf50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Keys to Success"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9903ed3430c0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9903ed3430c00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While this analysis should not be read as a perfect formula for becoming the next UC President, the Harvard Open Data Project hopes that it provides a useful roadmap for what general strategies tend to be correlated with electoral success. To review:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a3afa87871f2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a3afa87871f20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Build a great social media network to gain name recognition."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79af38a17216","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79af38a172160","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on the freshmen through personal meetings and giveaways."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5512c0df3899","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5512c0df38990","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Don’t worry too much about endorsements."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4c210966575b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c210966575b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Try to spend your money on points #1 and #2 as much as possible."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"4e65b2bbb4a7","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"204e467f1c50","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"204e467f1c500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven reflection on what worked — and what didn’t — in the 2016 Undergraduate Council campaign."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Yasmin Sachee (right) and Cameron Khansarinia won last year’s UC Presidential election, in line with HODP’s predictions.","asset":{"_ref":"image-85a4d0abac5b6b385f87178752d825027203fd36-2000x835-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"2ce271b008d7","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-30T05:00:00.000Z","slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"be080b832f0a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"4 Keys to Winning the UC Presidential Election","id":"-8d35115e-767c-5a72-97a9-3c2b7c9cba27","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"41e2841561525283df7894e83ac101a3","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":242},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2353a09ef3b3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2353a09ef3b30","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Campaign Facebook Pages"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"2a89085fba65","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2a89085fba650","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Daniel and Samyra’s Facebook page had the greatest number of likes, followed closely by Sruthi and Julia. Nadine and Arnav’s page had substantially fewer likes than the top two tickets. John and Sabrina did not create a Facebook page, so their social media presence was notably lacking compared to the other candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6581c5e6ee4e","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a-1214x706-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEua1Ly","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:39:03Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:39:03Z","assetId":"f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.7195467422096318,"height":706,"width":1214},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAAMCAYAAABiDJ37AAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAACKklEQVQoz32Tz0rjUBTG+xaKbkVEfAAXCoILBcGliLj3BdwpiE8giAi6UCpq68LBMk61nVFHBGVmilDSKum0VnQcSGnS0iZt0vz55pzbSVGUXvjI5eacX879zkmgWq2iWCyiUCgIKYrS2vO5rutwXRcfLY/leW8UqNfrKJfL0DStKVVtivZ8XqvVBNAjOaYJq1IRcixLnL0DcnCj0YBFATpVpNze4uX6GlouB5NgjuPApUAGqKkU5N1dZEIhlGQZDuUxxH0FDth0yEmObaOYTOJmfh7fZmaQoUSzVGoFWmTN73AYn0dH8WV8HPlIBDbdjq/9Blih8vnaDP5zcYHIyAh2uruRWF6GQX76i6+Z3tzEfk8PDvr7xQcbhvEeqJJfBr0QwPNzHA0NIdjRgV9LS6g+P8MiH03ys0ZNSm9sINTbi4OBAWT29mCTJaI5r4FsvgCSRy1gZyd+Li7i79UV7re2kFpfxwtVL62tNYHtKuSx4Iawh3zlo+Fh7HR14cfCAuRgEMdjY/g0OAhpdRXJlRWE+/raVygawiNBQCWRwPe5ORxPTECiqrKHh/g6O4vo5CTut7chEyQ2NYX49DQeT05g8RRQrk25fpUBv+0M1qkJT5eXyEWjKEgS1GwWj2dneDg9hZJOQ7m7w0Mshnw8Di2fF2Nl0myKphK0BfTF0AYPLweQDdwo3pvklUHWGDQ6vLf+TwVDfHGuAKLN8vwnBfLws/zf8KPfjtc/ueVZcATEz0MAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#3d393a","foreground":"#fff","population":0.13,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.37,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.37,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c1949a","foreground":"#000","population":1.07,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#e8c0c8","foreground":"#000","population":0.06,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#8c4c51","foreground":"#fff","population":0.09,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":4.14,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a-1214x706.png","sha1hash":"f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a","size":48187,"uploadId":"AHkTZLVppwUWaYs9m0wEf0d0hTaVQelY","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a-1214x706.png","id":"image-f93354b3140911a0d6774fa0ffd981b522ca1b3a-1214x706-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"4805b1ffe4ca599e5572ed7b3234b05d","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1422},"parent":null},"caption":"Daniel and Samyra’s Facebook page had the most likes, edging out Sruthi and Julia."},{"_key":"bbb9813c5f82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bbb9813c5f820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Next, we looked at the median number of likes per post on the tickets’ official Facebook pages. 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However, this means we did not capture data from other platforms like Instagram, Snapchat, or Twitter, which could have altered our findings. For example, Sruthi and Julia’s Instagram page has 429 followers, while Nadine and Arnav’s page has 18."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"732a34c8c1ba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"732a34c8c1ba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"It’s possible that groups of friends would like each other’s posts, so our model might have counted likes by the same people multiple times. This is why we chose to report the median likes per post rather than total likes, as well as the number of unique supporters instead of the total number of likes across all posts for each ticket."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e221025ce398","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e221025ce3980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Although the presence of likes on a post generally implies support for a ticket, they do not necessarily indicate endorsement or intent to vote. For example, we might simply like our friend’s profile picture with a ticket’s filter even if we have no intention to vote for that ticket."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e1ba833b46d4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e1ba833b46d40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We didn’t consider other metrics that could indicate the level of the candidates’ name recognition, such as involvement in campus groups and initiatives, endorsements by UC members and other student organizations, and private meetings and events held by the candidates to engage with the student body. For example, Sruthi and Julia have been endorsed by campus organizations like "},{"_key":"e1ba833b46d41","_type":"span","marks":["127437ebece5"],"text":"The Crimson"},{"_key":"e1ba833b46d42","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and the Harvard Democrats. Daniel and Samyra held an event to help students with CS50, a class taken by many freshmen. John and Sabrina are well-known for their involvement in the Harvard College Stand-Up Comic Society and The Lampoon. Nadine and Arnav engaged directly with Quad students by promising to improve shuttle schedules and create nap spaces in the Yard."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"127437ebece5","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2018/11/14/editorial-palaniappan-huesa-endorsement/?fbclid=IwAR3K9lxmCIPmOzZNU_Wo7YEHXtLoNaSLtRaQ-IE3OFOlQPltMbVf5pf8H6k"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"304589b0e78d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"304589b0e78d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Advantage: Sruthi and Julia."},{"_key":"304589b0e78d1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Although our indicators of social media presence are limited and results are not consistent across our chosen metrics, overall, Sruthi and Julia come out on top. They have the most likes per posts made by their page and supporters, as well as the greatest number of supporting posts. While Daniel and Samyra have a slim lead on Sruthi and Julia in terms of the number of people who like their campaign page, they post far less frequently on their page, have significantly fewer supporting posts, and earn fewer likes on their page’s and supporter’s posts. Nadine and Arnav’s likes per post were consistently in second place behind Sruthi and Julia, and they also had a substantial number of supporters on social media. Finally, John and Sabrina’s lack of social media presence and subsequent reduced online visibility could arguably hurt them in the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"c6297817d565","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c6297817d5650","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Conclusion"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"0abd15fd0107","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682-1440x689-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoXQr3","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:41:04Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:41:04Z","assetId":"0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":2.0899854862119014,"height":689,"width":1440},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAAKCAYAAAC0VX7mAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAACwUlEQVQozw2S3U9TBwDF71wiZchHoe3tvVza2w9aWlpKKd56W0r56Go/1tr2bnwpVMU5rSDgsk1SohECgYjTkS1ZtsRkL3vSJx+MxmzTf+y3+3DeTk5+OecIol/F7hORgg5cY4MEkx4m5oLMNnTWt2+x//SUnb1jttrHHL0449bODVKlCOHUIGrciTNkxzE8gDPgQA56ESSfghIYJHwxRCqfJFvRyJRGyZcucmP9Ku0nB9x5sMft7TYHJ6f89MMmzZUCuUKMqO5BCTsZ8PbTr9qwedwIbr9CMOInM5ehvlTHWGtQrk6xlJukWc2zunadYm2JwpVFWq377G+1OGw1WV8qUahk0ec1AmMBJI+C3a0iBEdDxCbGmMnNUVswKBsG8+lLLGohaokw45FxVH+EYDhOfibHvUaFvat1vm2UWV42WFhdJF+4TELT8EYiCDE9QexSlMmZCWYLaSp6kqrLQ80tUlVEUlYnaq8p2Y0+Okp5Moahx01fgkpplupylaIJkv2qyPi0hhBKjxBMy4xkRWanFdrDLk57RL7rtfGjqSOLjUpnPwG7A80cMOn3MG52pQ17mdGjfGlMk7tWIftNEb2QQojnwmhlH5m6j2YpwN8hL2+7JZ5Z7Pz1hYN3XSKbnVZ8PX0EZImIy40qDRFQXKQSEYr1FPmVJFONGMliDMFYvcLt+yt8//Amv2yu8S6b4YN9iFcdA7zvk3ivetlwygxd6EOyS4yofoYkN7JDITEWpWZkaTST5BfCTFXCCBvbO5wcH/H7b2e8Ojzg4+USn2wyH8738K9V5LXXw/qgjMfmwG4Tkc3Qvt4Bui9YicfitO7eZLd9h9bWIl9fKyHs7u5x9vw5L//8g9cnJ/wzn+e/rn7enLOYlF287Ozmeq+VqHkJUXTScd7CZ8LnWDo6mUqn2X/8iF9f/MzhwWNaG3f5H3GOYJXGlPR2AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#4c3929","foreground":"#fff","population":5.06,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#7f0c0c","foreground":"#fff","population":1.55,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#e60718","foreground":"#fff","population":6.19,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d0aa9f","foreground":"#000","population":0.39,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f4687a","foreground":"#fff","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#b2745e","foreground":"#fff","population":1.1,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#e60718","foreground":"#fff","population":6.19,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682-1440x689.png","sha1hash":"0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682","size":2282477,"uploadId":"2wP7F2uy5HfAdUj2mt6hpqEpLJql4Ypi","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682-1440x689.png","id":"image-0e3a22a5d2c38d6ddf08b3a2789261c880168682-1440x689-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"543cfe44663be7c55f3b4e84d855174b","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1464},"parent":null},"caption":"Sruthi Palaniappan and Julia Huesa, the next UC President and Vice-President according to our data, pictured in a campaign photo."},{"_key":"f339a7d20315","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f339a7d203150","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Based on our analysis of polling data and social media presence, we predict that"},{"_key":"f339a7d203151","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f339a7d203152","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Sruthi Palaniappan and Julia Huesa will be elected the next President and Vice-President of the Harvard Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"09db4785934d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"09db4785934d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We expect to see "},{"_key":"09db4785934d1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Daniel Ragheb and Samyra Miller in second place"},{"_key":"09db4785934d2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" because of their strong poll results and large follower base. We predict that "},{"_key":"09db4785934d3","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Nadine Khoury and Arnav Agrawal will rank third"},{"_key":"09db4785934d4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"; their advantageous ticket composition and social media presence will help them place above John T. 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