{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-9e1c5b6d-a41f-539e-b384-1615c5b84265","publishedAt":"2016-11-17T08:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[{"title":"Your 2019 Harvard UC President will be…","_id":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","slug":{"current":"your-2019-harvard-uc-president-will-be"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-87f8847b38dbcd64732da2797306c6d345a147df-1400x700-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"224b15ace237","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"224b15ace2370","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We ran the numbers. Here's what we found."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]},{"title":"Predicting the 2018 UC Presidential Election Winners","_id":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","slug":{"current":"predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Four tickets are running in the 2018 UC Presidential Election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-d2115c715082ae042c19ef25008fec4b01e575a2-1600x1114-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven election forecast by Manasi Maheshwari and Dasha Metropolitansky"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]}],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-6e713117cff06cb74db9cb2b4b343ce747758812-950x400-png"},"alt":null},"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction","slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"02089876484d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"02089876484d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix's prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since embarking on our quest to "},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a1","_type":"span","marks":["6621be4e2cc3"],"text":"use data to predict the results of Harvard’s 2016 Undergraduate Council election"},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", we at the Harvard Open Data Project have learned just how many considerations go into a prediction. Over the past three days, we have collected thousands of data points, both qualitative and quantitative, for our team to analyze."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6621be4e2cc3","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumSRg","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:22Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:03Z","body":[{"_key":"e9552a83f14c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e9552a83f14c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Perhaps inspired by the massive increase of data science and statistical analyses that helped to characterize the 2016 campaign cycle, the Harvard Open Data Project is seeking to follow in the footsteps of Nate Silver’s "},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c1","_type":"span","marks":["5f47ffc861de"],"text":"FiveThirtyEight"},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and the New York Times’ "},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c3","_type":"span","marks":["2650959dbe5f"],"text":"Upshot"},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" in predicting an election, albeit to a more successful end."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5f47ffc861de","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://fivethirtyeight.com/"},{"_key":"2650959dbe5f","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78f480a87118","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78f480a871180","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"2016 has been the year of incredible polling “misses” — marked by the United Kingdom’s historic vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s stunning ascendancy to become President-Elect of the United States. Both events were predicted to be extremely unlikely by hundreds of pollsters and detailed analysis of their methods and results. How could they have missed so widely? The data science conducted was likely sound, but the eventual results demonstrate that elections cannot be predicted solely by polls. To this extent, predicting an eventual victor is extremely difficult, and more an art than a science."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"\nPredicting elections is a fascinatingly complex problem, so we at the Harvard Open Data Project decided to use open data to take a crack at it. With the annual presidential elections for our undergraduate student government, the Undergraduate Council (UC), underway, "},{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"we’re excited to announce our new project, SixteenThirtySix, where we’ll be gathering and analyzing open data to predict the outcome of the elections."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"122f98e8e2c5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"122f98e8e2c50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To our knowledge, no polling or predictions have ever been conducted for student government elections at Harvard. We strive to be the first."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9408368f973","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9408368f9730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency represent the two most powerful positions in Harvard’s student government, which bring the responsibilities of leading Harvard’s diverse student body and overseeing fulfillment of the Council’s mission:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"73bc802086a9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"73bc802086a90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"“We listen to students and address their concerns. We connect the gap between students and administrators. We support student groups and sponsor house life. We encourage events on campus and improve student life. We are here for the students. We are here for you. We are the UC.” ("},{"_key":"73bc802086a91","_type":"span","marks":["4f2c1dce9e0c"],"text":"https://uc.fas.harvard.edu/"},{"_key":"73bc802086a92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":")"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f2c1dce9e0c","_type":"link","href":"https://uc.fas.harvard.edu/"}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ecb2e00bd85f","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-bdac7df871d536926c859f9dd2ab24cd7ac2684a-300x138-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Harvard College's Undergraduate Council"},{"_key":"803cdec7c384","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"803cdec7c3840","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"803cdec7c3841","_type":"span","marks":["6a60a9c6db0e"],"text":"Four tickets"},{"_key":"803cdec7c3842","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" are currently vying for the Presidency and Vice-Presidency in a voting process that opened Monday, November 14 at noon and closes on Thursday, November 17 at noon. (At press time, fewer than 1,000 votes have been cast, a figure representing less than 1/6th of Harvard’s undergraduate population.)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6a60a9c6db0e","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/1/four-presidential-candidates-declare-UC/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c8f93267283f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c8f93267283f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So how are we going to predict this election? We are unable to conduct a scientifically sound poll of a representative group of likely voters, as is the professional standard. This won’t deter us. Instead, our goal is to analyze more unconventional metrics to ultimately predict which ticket will prevail when polls close on Thursday:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f7319c9b8f55","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f7319c9b8f550","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The social media presence and outreach for each of the tickets, including: average and total engagement with campaign posts and pages, “tagged” social media endorsements from other students, and visible support in the form of campaign logo profile pictures"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27f19d82cd3d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27f19d82cd3d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements from outside figures or organizations, including publications such as the "},{"_key":"27f19d82cd3d1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"66ca8700943f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"66ca8700943f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements from sitting Undergraduate Council representatives"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"162be8091c0d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"162be8091c0d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In-person interviews with likely voters"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"04f8bfc4725a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"04f8bfc4725a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Analysis of campaign messages and their respective levels of importance to students"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"943d917d107f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"943d917d107f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A simple response "},{"_key":"943d917d107f1","_type":"span","marks":["c31ed4ec8016"],"text":"survey"},{"_key":"943d917d107f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", which we note fails to account for self-selected response biases and other standards that separate it from being statistically sound (but is still valuable to an extent)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"c31ed4ec8016","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://goo.gl/forms/8PInvWt7zpzDB6QG3"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"cd8b5cc03130","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"cd8b5cc031300","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"When the voting window closes Thursday at midday, SixteenThirtySix will release our analysis and predictions for the 2016 UC election. And staying true to the spirit of open data, we will release"},{"_key":"cd8b5cc031301","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"cd8b5cc031302","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"all"},{"_key":"cd8b5cc031303","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"cd8b5cc031304","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"the data gathered in the process that informed our prediction."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2938bc1108b0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2938bc1108b00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Stay tuned, and remember to "},{"_key":"2938bc1108b01","_type":"span","marks":["060ba2dd3776"],"text":"vote"},{"_key":"2938bc1108b02","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"!"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"060ba2dd3776","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://uc-vote.fas.harvard.edu/services/ucvote.web/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3e5c1f5e1be9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3e5c1f5e1be90","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Disclaimer: SixteenThirtySix is an experimental project for the Harvard Open Data Project. As such, we take no responsibility for the veracity of our prediction but instead view our process as an instrument in learning and a platform to share our passions for open data."},{"_key":"3e5c1f5e1be91","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"987fb3a09374","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"5953a42340d1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5953a42340d10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A new project, SixteenThirtySix, will be the first to predict results of student government elections at Harvard."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-8067ba978a29a50253eadb338cdf3251a3d85e31-1400x986-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"f204b585e908","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-11-14T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"23cc5020135d","_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"a8845bb6a90a","_ref":"72f7cc52-4577-41af-aa64-64505da2def9","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-predicting-harvard-elections"},"subjects":[{"_key":"e06914233a25","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Predicting Harvard Elections","id":"-16366c7b-5dc3-55ba-82e9-4e9b86f2fe69","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"67d8f1ba83cdaf309835a23237327cc7","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":472},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-predicting-harvard-elections"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"24de6116146a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"24de6116146a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our election prediction project, dubbed SixteenThirtySix, has been an exciting foray into the world of electoral politics, and we are excited to be sharing the results of the "},{"_key":"24de6116146a1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first-ever polling and predictions project for student government elections at Harvard."},{"_key":"24de6116146a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"97bb8638b369","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"97bb8638b3690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The following four tickets of presidential and vice-presidential candidates appeared on the ballot this week:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ad39ecd65e56","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ad39ecd65e560","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Scott Ely ’18 and Evan Bonsall ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3546e7c4f181","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3546e7c4f1810","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Eduardo Gonzalez ’18 and Alex Popovski ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27ca93e01521","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27ca93e015210","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"094afe59cc75","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"094afe59cc750","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Grant Solomon ’18 and Alexander Moore ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"368170e99b26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"368170e99b260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the past three days, SixteenThirtySix analyzed many "},{"_key":"368170e99b261","_type":"span","marks":["d88b38ffa037"],"text":"different quantitative and qualitative metrics"},{"_key":"368170e99b262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for each of the four tickets. Below, we discuss each factor in detail before arriving at our final prediction."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d88b38ffa037","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumSRg","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:22Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:03Z","body":[{"_key":"e9552a83f14c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e9552a83f14c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Perhaps inspired by the massive increase of data science and statistical analyses that helped to characterize the 2016 campaign cycle, the Harvard Open Data Project is seeking to follow in the footsteps of Nate Silver’s "},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c1","_type":"span","marks":["5f47ffc861de"],"text":"FiveThirtyEight"},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and the New York Times’ "},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c3","_type":"span","marks":["2650959dbe5f"],"text":"Upshot"},{"_key":"e9552a83f14c4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" in predicting an election, albeit to a more successful end."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5f47ffc861de","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://fivethirtyeight.com/"},{"_key":"2650959dbe5f","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.nytimes.com/section/upshot"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78f480a87118","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78f480a871180","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"2016 has been the year of incredible polling “misses” — marked by the United Kingdom’s historic vote to leave the European Union and Donald Trump’s stunning ascendancy to become President-Elect of the United States. Both events were predicted to be extremely unlikely by hundreds of pollsters and detailed analysis of their methods and results. How could they have missed so widely? The data science conducted was likely sound, but the eventual results demonstrate that elections cannot be predicted solely by polls. To this extent, predicting an eventual victor is extremely difficult, and more an art than a science."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"\nPredicting elections is a fascinatingly complex problem, so we at the Harvard Open Data Project decided to use open data to take a crack at it. With the annual presidential elections for our undergraduate student government, the Undergraduate Council (UC), underway, "},{"_key":"42fdaf009ebb1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"we’re excited to announce our new project, SixteenThirtySix, where we’ll be gathering and analyzing open data to predict the outcome of the elections."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"122f98e8e2c5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"122f98e8e2c50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To our knowledge, no polling or predictions have ever been conducted for student government elections at Harvard. We strive to be the first."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9408368f973","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9408368f9730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency represent the two most powerful positions in Harvard’s student government, which bring the responsibilities of leading Harvard’s diverse student body and overseeing fulfillment of the Council’s mission:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"73bc802086a9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"73bc802086a90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"“We listen to students and address their concerns. We connect the gap between students and administrators. We support student groups and sponsor house life. We encourage events on campus and improve student life. We are here for the students. We are here for you. We are the UC.” ("},{"_key":"73bc802086a91","_type":"span","marks":["4f2c1dce9e0c"],"text":"https://uc.fas.harvard.edu/"},{"_key":"73bc802086a92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":")"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f2c1dce9e0c","_type":"link","href":"https://uc.fas.harvard.edu/"}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ecb2e00bd85f","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-bdac7df871d536926c859f9dd2ab24cd7ac2684a-300x138-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Harvard College's Undergraduate Council"},{"_key":"803cdec7c384","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"803cdec7c3840","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"803cdec7c3841","_type":"span","marks":["6a60a9c6db0e"],"text":"Four tickets"},{"_key":"803cdec7c3842","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" are currently vying for the Presidency and Vice-Presidency in a voting process that opened Monday, November 14 at noon and closes on Thursday, November 17 at noon. (At press time, fewer than 1,000 votes have been cast, a figure representing less than 1/6th of Harvard’s undergraduate population.)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6a60a9c6db0e","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/1/four-presidential-candidates-declare-UC/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c8f93267283f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c8f93267283f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So how are we going to predict this election? We are unable to conduct a scientifically sound poll of a representative group of likely voters, as is the professional standard. This won’t deter us. 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and median likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"57eb34f192df","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"57eb34f192df0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Yaz and Cam left the rest of the field in the dust in terms of the sheer level of engagement with individual “endorsements.” This enabled their campaign to reach a larger audience and attract higher levels of name recognition and familiarity. These all translated into increased perceived support and, most likely, more votes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ade1302fc632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ade1302fc6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex, as well as Scott and Evan, made up some ground in terms of mean and median likes, which implies higher enthusiasm among their respective supporters than the number of total likes might suggest, but "},{"_key":"ade1302fc6321","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam still maintained a healthy lead across all of our social media metrics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ba29bbd9c508","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ba29bbd9c5080","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At this point in our analysis, the data suggested that three tickets (Yaz and Cam; Eduardo and Alex; and Scott and Evan) have the social media support necessary for a serious bid for the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency. Grant and Alexander had a minimal presence on Facebook, consisting of a single “hype video” with 592 views. Their candidacy hinged on their outsider perspective, as neither candidate on the ticket has any UC experience. 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During this UC election cycle, board members of organizations have been actively campaigning for candidates by sending emails over pub-lists, speaking during meetings, and posting on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ca89819d98d0","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoc9bo","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T03:09:54Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:09:54Z","assetId":"2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":4,"height":360,"width":1440},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#03955e","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#04aa6b","foreground":"#fff","population":9.25,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#04aa6b","foreground":"#fff","population":9.25,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cae1db","foreground":"#000","population":0.44,"title":"#000"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a0f4d4","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#5a9e85","foreground":"#fff","population":0.31,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#04bc6c","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360.png","sha1hash":"2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959","size":54668,"uploadId":"O10b1R6vfHYdUUpQVQLrJBxjBmQRm2om","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360.png","id":"image-2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"1807adfda67037a94071795a52d75ad7","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":568},"parent":null},"caption":"Total Membership of Endorsing Organizations"},{"_key":"a83d133931c6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a83d133931c60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As visualized above, "},{"_key":"a83d133931c61","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"a83d133931c62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" lead in this metric. However, SixteenThirtySix cannot account for “member overlap” between endorsing organizations; it is wholly possible that one student can be double- or even triple-counted in the above graph if he or she belongs to multiple organizations that have issued endorsements. Counterbalancing this is the "},{"_key":"a83d133931c63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"a83d133931c65","_type":"span","marks":["db85c04a7ccb"],"text":"editorial board endorsement"},{"_key":"a83d133931c66","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" of Eduardo and Alex as “stand[ing] above the rest.” The "},{"_key":"a83d133931c67","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c68","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" declined to provide viewership data, but we can imagine that their readership is broad, although not necessarily engaged in the same manner as one would be in an organization."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"db85c04a7ccb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When it comes to organizational endorsements, advantage: Eduardo and Alex."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9a78680540f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9a78680540f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Sitting UC Representatives"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3654da37288c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3654da37288c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The three front-running campaigns are all composed of “establishment” UC figures, all six of whom have served at least two terms on the Council. The presidential candidates have all served as chairs of various UC committees. While we could not directly analyze their experiences working with other members on the Council, we did so indirectly by looking at the number of endorsements each candidate received from their fellow representatives:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"09a10d959a84","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEujGqe","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T03:10:28Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:10:28Z","assetId":"628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":4,"height":360,"width":1440},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#419176","foreground":"#fff","population":0.04,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#079c68","foreground":"#fff","population":0.08,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#04ab6b","foreground":"#fff","population":11.16,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#8abfaa","foreground":"#000","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a4f0d4","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#599d84","foreground":"#fff","population":0.47,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#04ab6b","foreground":"#fff","population":11.16,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360.png","sha1hash":"628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b","size":67343,"uploadId":"jKMnF6YlKRYpJZ7Thx082gVo21UTqt0U","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360.png","id":"image-628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"67164782c82831863b664cf8147593aa","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":808},"parent":null}},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Grant and Alexander’s ticket suffered from the candidates’ lack of connections on the UC. Scott and Evan lead in these endorsements by UC representatives, although it is worth noting that over 40% of those on the Council, including current President Shaiba Rather ‘17 and Vice-President Danny Banks ’17, have declined to state publicly who they are supporting. "},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If the publicly undeclared representatives break along roughly the same proportions as those who have declared their support, Scott and Evan stand to benefit."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b00843cb7ed4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b00843cb7ed40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC members generally have strong networks within upperclassmen Houses or in freshman Yards, and therefore can serve as effective surrogate campaigners."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our Survey"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c5698","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c5f2be0c56980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the course of the voting period, SixteenThirtySix used "},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56981","_type":"span","marks":["7a874a7278b1"],"text":"this poll"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to try and gain a sense of overall student opinion regarding the UC election. While we are fully aware that a Google Form does not rise to the level of professional political polling or to the standards of representative samples, we have no reason to believe that there are systematic biases in the data we have collected. Our poll was “pubbed” over many different email list-servs and house lists in an attempt to reach a diverse and representative subset of the Harvard College student body. 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"},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe151","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam hold a plurality in the popular vote as well as a surprising lead among respondents in the freshman class."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Freshmen, who traditionally have high voter engagement and turnout rates in UC elections, may be the deciding factor in this election. One potential explanation for Yaz and Cam’s success among freshman is their distribution of puzzle pieces across campus and throughout dorms in the Yard, echoing their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d442cc2269f70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Further complicating our quest to predict the election, Undergraduate Council elections are conducted using a "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f71","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"ranked-choice system"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", forgoing more well-known alternatives, including "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f73","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first past the post"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f74","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or the "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f75","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Electoral College."},{"_key":"d442cc2269f76","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Thus, if voters’ first choices result in a neck-and-neck race, the Presidency could be decided on the strength of tickets’ down-ballot performances (i.e. on ballots for which they were not ranked first)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3c013232b2e3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3c013232b2e30","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Our Prediction"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"321e7e1205d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"321e7e1205d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Before we at SixteenThirtySix make our official prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election, we would like to thank those that have made this project possible."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6598c656e095","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6598c656e0950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Data Gathering & Visualization: HODP’s research and development team, Ryan Lee, Michael Zhang, and especially team lead "},{"_key":"6598c656e0951","_type":"span","marks":["e3eefd1bdd28"],"text":"Athena Kan"},{"_key":"6598c656e0952","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"e3eefd1bdd28","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/80289ccba39f?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bad017080a48","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bad017080a480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall Guidance: HODP’s amazing project team leaders (read more about them "},{"_key":"bad017080a481","_type":"span","marks":["d00f37859ff2"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"bad017080a482","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"!), including "},{"_key":"bad017080a483","_type":"span","marks":["33bf775bb8b9"],"text":"Neel Mehta"},{"_key":"bad017080a484","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and "},{"_key":"bad017080a485","_type":"span","marks":["deeb4babd25d"],"text":"Brian Sapozhnikov"},{"_key":"bad017080a486","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"d00f37859ff2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"7e7342ee-608b-44b8-98d9-1009d62b5a5a","_type":"post","_rev":"yUhunRJNe7KBgGINQh8qqN","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T03:26:55Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-07T00:45:23Z","body":[{"_key":"e7c235e9b068","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e7c235e9b0680","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"e7c235e9b0681","_type":"span","marks":["ef636d06b699"],"text":"Brian Sapozhnikov"},{"_key":"e7c235e9b0682","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and the "},{"_key":"e7c235e9b0683","_type":"span","marks":["10d4f94f43bc"],"text":"Harvard Computing Society"},{"_key":"e7c235e9b0684","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" couldn’t figure out when the next shuttle around campus was coming or when their laundry was done, and Harvard didn’t offer any useful apps or services to help with that. 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Students can’t find this data in the first place. Much of Harvard’s data is decentralized, lost in a tangle of subdomains. 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