{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0","publishedAt":"2016-12-01T08:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[{"title":"Your 2019 Harvard UC President will be…","_id":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","slug":{"current":"your-2019-harvard-uc-president-will-be"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-87f8847b38dbcd64732da2797306c6d345a147df-1400x700-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"224b15ace237","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"224b15ace2370","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We ran the numbers. Here's what we found."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]},{"title":"Predicting the 2018 UC Presidential Election Winners","_id":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","slug":{"current":"predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Four tickets are running in the 2018 UC Presidential Election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-d2115c715082ae042c19ef25008fec4b01e575a2-1600x1114-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven election forecast by Manasi Maheshwari and Dasha Metropolitansky"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]}],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-02ec0b66d4a54cdb1f1bd6d3aef8b4672d5e0e2c-1400x909-png"},"alt":null},"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Our Analysis","slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Thoughts on the 2016 UC election results."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f33","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3af0a2716f330","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Well, the dust has settled. After the widely-criticized failure of pundits and pollsters in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 American election, the Harvard Open Data Project launched SixteenThirtySix, the first-ever polling and prediction project undertaken at Harvard College for a student government election. Read our previous posts "},{"_key":"3af0a2716f331","_type":"span","marks":["c0ac74a33282"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f332","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c0ac74a33282","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/@chriskuang"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6f35473e4226","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6f35473e42260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination. We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field.\n\n("},{"_key":"6f35473e42261","_type":"span","marks":["aa3a1524acda"],"text":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction"},{"_key":"6f35473e42262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"- Nov 17, 2016)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"aa3a1524acda","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEunJDu","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:49Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:29:48Z","body":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since embarking on our quest to "},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a1","_type":"span","marks":["6621be4e2cc3"],"text":"use data to predict the results of Harvard’s 2016 Undergraduate Council election"},{"_key":"447c03bb2d3a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", we at the Harvard Open Data Project have learned just how many considerations go into a prediction. Over the past three days, we have collected thousands of data points, both qualitative and quantitative, for our team to analyze."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"6621be4e2cc3","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"24de6116146a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"24de6116146a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our election prediction project, dubbed SixteenThirtySix, has been an exciting foray into the world of electoral politics, and we are excited to be sharing the results of the "},{"_key":"24de6116146a1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first-ever polling and predictions project for student government elections at Harvard."},{"_key":"24de6116146a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"97bb8638b369","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"97bb8638b3690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The following four tickets of presidential and vice-presidential candidates appeared on the ballot this week:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ad39ecd65e56","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ad39ecd65e560","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Scott Ely ’18 and Evan Bonsall ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3546e7c4f181","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3546e7c4f1810","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Eduardo Gonzalez ’18 and Alex Popovski ‘19"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27ca93e01521","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27ca93e015210","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"094afe59cc75","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"094afe59cc750","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Grant Solomon ’18 and Alexander Moore ‘18"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"368170e99b26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"368170e99b260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the past three days, SixteenThirtySix analyzed many "},{"_key":"368170e99b261","_type":"span","marks":["d88b38ffa037"],"text":"different quantitative and qualitative metrics"},{"_key":"368170e99b262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for each of the four tickets. Below, we discuss each factor in detail before arriving at our final prediction."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d88b38ffa037","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"ba2013ab-ef00-4fe8-91a9-d69a44a9da3a","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5580e478486f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5580e478486f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Presence"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"34d8ae27eb7d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Official Campaign Pages"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5ee3d4f86d4a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In a day and time where it seems that almost everything is at the tap of a finger or click of a mouse, it is no surprise that campaigns prioritized social media presence. With the exception of Grant and Alexander, each of the remaining three tickets curated polished campaign pages on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d7669cb9298","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d7669cb92980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These Facebook pages serve as avenues where the candidates can campaign, share policy positions, and publicize endorsements."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d6da75561888","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Likes: Official Campaign Pages"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f972a32d96e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Likes drive page views. Page views generate engagement. Pages on Facebook with higher totals of likes appear on more News Feeds and Timelines, thus allowing campaigns to spread their message to a broader audience. Likes also may be a good indicator of support in the undergraduate body. "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e51","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"In this important battle,"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e52","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e53","_type":"span","marks":["strong","15b9a9308e88"],"text":"Yaz & Cam for UC"},{"_key":"f972a32d96e54","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"f972a32d96e55","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"hold a wide lead, with more “likes” on their Facebook page than those of the other three tickets combined."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"15b9a9308e88","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/yazandcam/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c3fcd728f16c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Personal “Endorsements”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9f9ad94d94ac0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Putting the “social” in “social media,” the same three campaigns devised filters or themes that allowed their supporters to publicly share their support with their friends and followers. The three front-running campaigns all harnessed custom overlays that allowed individuals to show support on their own profile pictures."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1e26008d119b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-926dc05fbd3b3369cc38029928b8cf58ba9915fd-1489x741-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Examples of custom campaign overlays (Left: Yaz and Cam, Right: Scott and Evan)"},{"_key":"f94e8bde1862","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94e8bde18620","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to the custom frames, Eduardo and Alex chose a more personal route, featuring hand-written whiteboard messages of what supporters wanted to see in “Our Harvard” — the campaign’s official slogan."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aeea9e48e78b","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0fc691727eeb36fc188775fe1d3d6be2a442bd53-1490x592-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Whiteboards and custom frames — Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"f8db9462d341","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f8db9462d3410","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"\nIn studying the number of individual “endorsements”— which we define as a public profile picture change with an overlay or whiteboard — we at SixteenThirtySix were able to get a sense of popular sentiment within the student body."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"960ba5b36d95","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b0d9164f38dfadb71cc7fd3641b5543901ea5652-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"2620b03bd3a6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-0bd2d4ca809f0259a1a5ca284f9bf667381e595c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Mean and median likes on campaign-related profile pictures"},{"_key":"57eb34f192df","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"57eb34f192df0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Yaz and Cam left the rest of the field in the dust in terms of the sheer level of engagement with individual “endorsements.” This enabled their campaign to reach a larger audience and attract higher levels of name recognition and familiarity. These all translated into increased perceived support and, most likely, more votes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ade1302fc632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ade1302fc6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex, as well as Scott and Evan, made up some ground in terms of mean and median likes, which implies higher enthusiasm among their respective supporters than the number of total likes might suggest, but "},{"_key":"ade1302fc6321","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam still maintained a healthy lead across all of our social media metrics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ba29bbd9c508","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ba29bbd9c5080","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At this point in our analysis, the data suggested that three tickets (Yaz and Cam; Eduardo and Alex; and Scott and Evan) have the social media support necessary for a serious bid for the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency. Grant and Alexander had a minimal presence on Facebook, consisting of a single “hype video” with 592 views. Their candidacy hinged on their outsider perspective, as neither candidate on the ticket has any UC experience. Unfortunately for them, their lack of a social media presence likely significantly hinders their chances of winning the Presidency."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a797f91c63b0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a797f91c63b00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, Yaz and Cam’s dominant social media presence offers them a unique advantage over the other campaigns."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"550ea7710a82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"550ea7710a820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"dca12af5ddf7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dca12af5ddf70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Organizations"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"6a855b34e14d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6a855b34e14d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Some organizations on campus have come out in support of a certain campaign that they feel aligns most with their interests or values. Most notably, Eduardo/Alex and Yaz/Cam have received several prominent endorsements, including:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex: "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb1","_type":"span","marks":["2a875a18d97a"],"text":"Concilio Latino"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb3","_type":"span","marks":["8c6ff28429eb"],"text":"Fuerza Latina"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", QSA, "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb5","_type":"span","marks":["em","c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb6","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb7","_type":"span","marks":["c2c465bb2454"],"text":"Editorial Board"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb8","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb9","_type":"span","marks":["edb64e5a0e1c"],"text":"Latinas Unidas"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", "},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb11","_type":"span","marks":["5aab3da3a633"],"text":"Act on a Dream"},{"_key":"017a4a36b1fb12","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and the African Students Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"2a875a18d97a","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=916149108485542&id=126642857436175"},{"_key":"8c6ff28429eb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/harvardfuerzalatina/posts/642779945902981"},{"_key":"c2c465bb2454","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"},{"_key":"edb64e5a0e1c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1607762399249968&set=a.548493615176857.139535.100000486701224&type=3&theater"},{"_key":"5aab3da3a633","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/actonadream/posts/1499529473396467"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95f291852450","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95f2918524500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yaz and Cam: "},{"_key":"95f2918524501","_type":"span","marks":["eac0f522dd4d"],"text":"Asian-American Association"},{"_key":"95f2918524502","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", Association of Black Harvard Women, Nigerian Students Association, and the Iranian Association"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"eac0f522dd4d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.facebook.com/fAAAmily/posts/1196058283798420"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d1a7a88b48a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Eduardo and Alex’s ticket has been widely praised by many minority cultural organizations for being the only ticket to consider the plight of undocumented students at Harvard on their platform, an increasingly important matter under the incoming Trump Administration."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c98524f25068","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c98524f250680","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When weighing endorsement data, SixteenThirtySix considered the potential “reach” each statement of support carried, which we assumed to be proportional to the number of members on an endorsing organization’s email list (as most endorsements were announced over email). During this UC election cycle, board members of organizations have been actively campaigning for candidates by sending emails over pub-lists, speaking during meetings, and posting on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ca89819d98d0","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2fbf44e67da4c20cfc8a15ec1f108b85e5a16959-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total Membership of Endorsing Organizations"},{"_key":"a83d133931c6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a83d133931c60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As visualized above, "},{"_key":"a83d133931c61","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"a83d133931c62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" lead in this metric. However, SixteenThirtySix cannot account for “member overlap” between endorsing organizations; it is wholly possible that one student can be double- or even triple-counted in the above graph if he or she belongs to multiple organizations that have issued endorsements. Counterbalancing this is the "},{"_key":"a83d133931c63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"a83d133931c65","_type":"span","marks":["db85c04a7ccb"],"text":"editorial board endorsement"},{"_key":"a83d133931c66","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" of Eduardo and Alex as “stand[ing] above the rest.” The "},{"_key":"a83d133931c67","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"Harvard Crimson"},{"_key":"a83d133931c68","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" declined to provide viewership data, but we can imagine that their readership is broad, although not necessarily engaged in the same manner as one would be in an organization."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"db85c04a7ccb","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3e8eb2ff26f60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When it comes to organizational endorsements, advantage: Eduardo and Alex."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"b9a78680540f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9a78680540f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements by Sitting UC Representatives"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3654da37288c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3654da37288c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The three front-running campaigns are all composed of “establishment” UC figures, all six of whom have served at least two terms on the Council. The presidential candidates have all served as chairs of various UC committees. While we could not directly analyze their experiences working with other members on the Council, we did so indirectly by looking at the number of endorsements each candidate received from their fellow representatives:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"09a10d959a84","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-628712f8bd5b69b76f08a2fa526ec18dd6e61c3b-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once again, Grant and Alexander’s ticket suffered from the candidates’ lack of connections on the UC. Scott and Evan lead in these endorsements by UC representatives, although it is worth noting that over 40% of those on the Council, including current President Shaiba Rather ‘17 and Vice-President Danny Banks ’17, have declined to state publicly who they are supporting. "},{"_key":"7d6ddf65859b1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If the publicly undeclared representatives break along roughly the same proportions as those who have declared their support, Scott and Evan stand to benefit."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b00843cb7ed4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b00843cb7ed40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC members generally have strong networks within upperclassmen Houses or in freshman Yards, and therefore can serve as effective surrogate campaigners."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a32c6d10acfb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our Survey"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c5698","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c5f2be0c56980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Over the course of the voting period, SixteenThirtySix used "},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56981","_type":"span","marks":["7a874a7278b1"],"text":"this poll"},{"_key":"c5f2be0c56982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to try and gain a sense of overall student opinion regarding the UC election. While we are fully aware that a Google Form does not rise to the level of professional political polling or to the standards of representative samples, we have no reason to believe that there are systematic biases in the data we have collected. Our poll was “pubbed” over many different email list-servs and house lists in an attempt to reach a diverse and representative subset of the Harvard College student body. Realizing the statistical shortcomings of this methodology, we used the data gathered as a complementary source in our analysis, rather than as a primary source."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"7a874a7278b1","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://goo.gl/forms/VIvxmUHyxnyjkmin1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"11ffe03054bd","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-2164d2f650e5d46d9b3f2bd17f622837cfc518f2-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total respondents in favor of each ticket"},{"_key":"e30835f31aae","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-b3f6d5b5596d2c2e4c56955ab62e03d35944f75b-1544x460-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Distribution of respondents in favor of each ticket, sorted by grade."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe15","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"234fb2c8fe150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our survey received over 240 responses, which amounts to about 3.5% of the electorate. "},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe151","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Yaz and Cam hold a plurality in the popular vote as well as a surprising lead among respondents in the freshman class."},{"_key":"234fb2c8fe152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Freshmen, who traditionally have high voter engagement and turnout rates in UC elections, may be the deciding factor in this election. One potential explanation for Yaz and Cam’s success among freshman is their distribution of puzzle pieces across campus and throughout dorms in the Yard, echoing their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d442cc2269f70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Further complicating our quest to predict the election, Undergraduate Council elections are conducted using a "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f71","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"ranked-choice system"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", forgoing more well-known alternatives, including "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f73","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"first past the post"},{"_key":"d442cc2269f74","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or the "},{"_key":"d442cc2269f75","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Electoral College."},{"_key":"d442cc2269f76","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Thus, if voters’ first choices result in a neck-and-neck race, the Presidency could be decided on the strength of tickets’ down-ballot performances (i.e. on ballots for which they were not ranked first)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3c013232b2e3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3c013232b2e30","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Our Prediction"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"321e7e1205d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"321e7e1205d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Before we at SixteenThirtySix make our official prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election, we would like to thank those that have made this project possible."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6598c656e095","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6598c656e0950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Data Gathering & Visualization: HODP’s research and development team, Ryan Lee, Michael Zhang, and especially team lead "},{"_key":"6598c656e0951","_type":"span","marks":["e3eefd1bdd28"],"text":"Athena Kan"},{"_key":"6598c656e0952","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"e3eefd1bdd28","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/80289ccba39f?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bad017080a48","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bad017080a480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall Guidance: HODP’s amazing project team leaders (read more about them "},{"_key":"bad017080a481","_type":"span","marks":["d00f37859ff2"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"bad017080a482","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"!), including "},{"_key":"bad017080a483","_type":"span","marks":["33bf775bb8b9"],"text":"Neel Mehta"},{"_key":"bad017080a484","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and "},{"_key":"bad017080a485","_type":"span","marks":["deeb4babd25d"],"text":"Brian Sapozhnikov"},{"_key":"bad017080a486","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"d00f37859ff2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"7e7342ee-608b-44b8-98d9-1009d62b5a5a","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"33bf775bb8b9","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/96dcff164387?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"},{"_key":"deeb4babd25d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/u/bf799bcf96ac?source=post_page-----2b31cfb03938----------------------"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b4b8c475075a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b4b8c475075a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We have genuinely enjoyed working on this project and learning about the positions and the people behind each of the four tickets. We hope that, no matter the result of the election or the accuracy of our prediction, SixteenThirtySix has sparked the spirit of open data at Harvard."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you would like to view the data that we’ve used to inform our analysis, create our visualizations, and shape our prediction, please visit our "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c81","_type":"span","marks":["e355f3a678ad"],"text":"GitHub"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" or contact me at "},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c83","_type":"span","marks":["0a70280cc909"],"text":"ckuang@college.harvard.edu"},{"_key":"dc0cd59f16c84","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e355f3a678ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/sixteenthirtysix"},{"_key":"0a70280cc909","_type":"link","href":"mailto:ckuang@college.harvard.edu"}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"841823efe766","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"841823efe7660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Drumroll, please…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"069cf4897fa6","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-fee00b91ce374e3dfb7e6d93217edbc435d62a82-2363x1577-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC Presidential candidate Yasmin Sachee ’18 (right) and running mate Cameron Khansarinia ’18 (left)"},{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"cb0f2f9ade310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As polling closes today, SixteenThirtySix is predicting a victory for Yasmin Sachee ’18 and Cameron Khansarinia ’18."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"4cac684766d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4cac684766d60","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination."},{"_key":"4cac684766d61","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5836252962fd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5836252962fd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we are confident in our data and methodologies, we acknowledge that predicting elections is an imprecise science, as we saw when even professional pollsters and websites mis-predicted the 2016 American Presidential election. There will always be missing data points and trends that our data may fail to show. Still, we look forward to seeing the election outcome and hope that our predictions shed some light on what makes campaigns win or lose."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"3b713c15f16d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3b713c15f16d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"After the election results are announced tonight, we’ll publish a “postmortem” to evaluate the strengths and shortcomings of our approach and determine what we can learn about UC campaigns going forward."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"7d4457a729d6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d4457a729d60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix wishes to congratulate all of the candidates on their respectful, hard-fought campaigns, and thank them for raising the level of discourse on our campus and for their commitment to improving student life."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec3","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6124e09dcec30","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Shameless plug: if you’re interested in open data, government, and data science, we’re working on more projects like this! Drop me a line (ckuang@college.harvard.edu), "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec31","_type":"span","marks":["f81c8e98f8ad"],"text":"join our mailing list"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec32","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", or "},{"_key":"6124e09dcec33","_type":"span","marks":["e83f8e7ff296"],"text":"visit our website"},{"_key":"6124e09dcec34","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to learn more and get involved."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"f81c8e98f8ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/harvard-open-data"},{"_key":"e83f8e7ff296","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"home","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"}],"categories":[{"_key":"2a31f2ade831","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"02089876484d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"02089876484d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"SixteenThirtySix's prediction for the 2016 Undergraduate Council election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-6e713117cff06cb74db9cb2b4b343ce747758812-950x400-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"c89e25d7e0a4","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]},{"_key":"8794d80ddde6","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"d3d841aa-e1cc-4efb-99d3-d9901fd388e2","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]},{"_key":"2d02821f0e30","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"1a912d38-ad99-49c7-beec-d7368b7a7cb4","_type":"reference"},"roles":["developer","contributor","editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-11-17T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"19dc5d96b8e4","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"f050dd6ef7e2","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"},"subjects":[{"_key":"844fe7fecb22","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction","id":"-9e1c5b6d-a41f-539e-b384-1615c5b84265","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"8faaebad5f00195f52e795d5708d8111","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1681},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-making-our-prediction"}}}}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"82ccbcb90e02","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"82ccbcb90e020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The Results"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quoted above is the prediction we published as polls closed after a three-day voting period. Not without a "},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6321","_type":"span","marks":["08ea0e8203ce"],"text":"hint of controversy"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6322","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" later that night, the election results were certified and released the next day by the UC Election Commission (below)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"08ea0e8203ce","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/18/UC-president-allegations-delay/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ccc2585d0af9","_type":"figure","asset":{"_id":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjAQCo","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:24:23Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:24:23Z","assetId":"9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":0.9176882661996497,"height":571,"width":524},"hasAlpha":true,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#575757","foreground":"#fff","population":3.83,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6c1c2a","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#575757","foreground":"#fff","population":3.83,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9cb8c5","foreground":"#000","population":0.34,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#a9d8ef","foreground":"#000","population":0.03,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6a92ae","foreground":"#fff","population":0.02,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#bc343c","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"image.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571.png","sha1hash":"9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38","size":348058,"uploadId":"F7rrhQVnOtH8FOkXmxNEogT3jFxhHRHm","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571.png","id":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"83ad15e284f53adb3b01f4877faef638","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1001},"parent":null},"caption":"2016 Undergraduate Council Election Results"},{"_key":"c348fa89054c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c348fa89054c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quick Takes and Analysis"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b929b308b8fc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite the intricacies of the ranked-choice voting system that are visualized above, Yaz and Cam won a plurality of “1st preference votes” and the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency, followed by Eduardo and Alex, Scott and Evan, and Grant and Alexander. So in other words, "},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"our prediction correctly forecasted not just the winner, but the order in which the other tickets placed as well."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"254656f3c2ff0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"3042 ballots were cast out of Harvard College’s undergraduate population of approximately 6700 — a "},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"voter turnout rate of 45%"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"21cfc6190323","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"21cfc61903230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since more students failed to vote than actually voted, we still view "},{"_key":"21cfc61903231","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"social media to be the most effective campaign tool in UC elections"},{"_key":"21cfc61903232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Yaz and Cam’s superior presence on platforms such as Facebook enabled them to reach a large subset of the student body, which eventually converted into more votes."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"786d949d4a7f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"786d949d4a7f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Looking back at all the metrics that we analyzed before making our prediction, Facebook presence (both by campaigns and individuals) correlates most strongly with the results, while notably endorsements by UC representatives and student organizations do not."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aee494f3f980","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"aee494f3f9800","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Gimmicks work."},{"_key":"aee494f3f9801","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Apart from their social media presence, Yaz and Cam’s campaign coordinated door drops of puzzle pieces in upperclassmen Houses and freshman Yard dorms, a clever play on their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.” In an election with turnout under 50% and abstract stakes in the minds of many eligible voters, this gimmick successfully created buzz and started conversations."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"What does this mean for the future?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"7907ed370656","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7907ed3706560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since UC Presidential tickets are regulated by the Election Commission to spend no more than a certain dollar amount on campaign-related activities, this election has shown that the "},{"_key":"7907ed3706561","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"most efficient avenue for campaign dollars is promoting social media posts"},{"_key":"7907ed3706562","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", a tactic harnessed successfully by Yaz and Cam. One of their competitors, Scott and Evan, invested instead primarily on physical advertisements, including flyers and posters tacked and taped to bulletin boards and dorm-room doors across campus. This more traditional tactic does not appear to have brought Scott and Evan much success, as they finished in third place."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8393fb60538d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8393fb60538d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our poll, despite its statistical flaws, had a fairly accurate representation of the final results. The relatively small nature of Harvard’s undergraduate community, especially compared to the entirely of the United States, helps to minimize the number of flaws in our Google Form survey (imagine Presidential campaign polls being conducted with Google Forms…)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"011bd240027a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"011bd240027a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until Next Time"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a54","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a540","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until the time comes for SixteenThirtySix to predict another election at Harvard (we unfortunately missed the train on the graduate student unionization election), the Harvard Open Data Project will continue on working on other pressing projects, such as the development of a more "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a541","_type":"span","marks":["4f36f1e4238a"],"text":"accessible HUPD police log"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a542","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" that will visualize locations of crimes on a map of Harvard’s campus, or analysis of "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a543","_type":"span","marks":["ac6d3059f9eb"],"text":"HUDS data"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a544","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to minimize food waste in dining halls."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f36f1e4238a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"3d8e84ed-5653-4414-9375-185963b5d211","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj7O6Y","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:21:20Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T01:50:09Z","body":[{"_key":"c11cff565eee","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c11cff565eee0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There are a lot of risks involved in coming to Harvard. There’s the risk of finding your true passion, there’s the risk of staying up late at night deep in life-changing conversations, there’s the risk of gaining the freshman fifteen and the senior seventeen. However one risk that should not be part of anyone’s college experience is the risk of being a victim of crime."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"229880623d75","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"229880623d750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Fortunately for us, we Harvard students have the service of the Cambridge Police Department and also Harvard’s own police department, HUPD (Harvard University Police Department). HUPD is a phenomenal unit of dedicated and friendly officers who work hard to keep us safe — but despite all the diligence in the world, students unfortunately occasionally fall victim to crime."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"760a6f6a4653","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"760a6f6a46530","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So what could have gone wrong? How can students be at risk of crime even with the protection of two police units? To answer this question, I’ll provide an anecdote provided to me from Erie Meyer, one of my mentors, from when she started her career in Washington D.C."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9abd0147a7ca","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9abd0147a7ca0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The first week after her arrival, she was the victim of pickpocketing and lost several valuables from her bag while riding the train to work. When she reported the incident to the police, the officer working with her was immediately able guess the time and place of the incident with chilling accuracy. However the most terrifying part came when he revealed how he knew: he heard many incidents being reported to happen at that time and place. If this information was known, why hadn’t more officers been dispatched to ensure it wouldn’t happen again? Why hadn’t locals avoid the area during that portion of the day to avoid crime?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"59611a758e6d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59611a758e6d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"The answer is simple: a lack of open data and the tools to analyze it."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6aa432bb4d8e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6aa432bb4d8e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Every police department is legally required to produce logs detailing any reported incidents and crimes. However these logs are often very inconvenient to browse through and analyze, which makes studying crime and developing programs for prevention hard. Thus even with publicly available data, we run into obstacles, primarily in that the current format (or lack thereof) makes it difficult to work with this data, which effectively creates a vacuum in the space of police data tool."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fad8fc193f28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fad8fc193f280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"That’s where we come in."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"13d87e177bdd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"13d87e177bdd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We’re the Harvard Open Data Project’s HUPD Crime Watch team. The goal of the project initially was to plot geographic distributions of reported crimes off HUPD logs. Due to the format of how logs were presented on their website (as separate downloadable PDF), the initial implementation involved batch downloading them, converting them to .txt files and using a parser built in C to collect each entry into a MySQL database. From there, PHP, HTML, CSS, and JavaScript along with Google Map’s API were used in developing a rudimentary display of the data. It used Google Maps’s native red pin to plot each distinct location of crimes. Upon click each pin, you’d get a list of crimes reported with that address/location and, upon clicking each crime, you could see more details. "},{"_key":"13d87e177bdd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Although simple in concept, it’s the beginning of what will be more complex police data-based/data-driven tools."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"33ddf01ec935","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"33ddf01ec9350","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to this, our goals for the project now include creating a form to collect police incidents, a better map interface, and a navigation feature."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"25f20119fa86","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"25f20119fa860","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Collecting Police Data More Directly"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b97f51944209","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b97f519442090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The current method involves manually downloading the PDF logs and then parsing its .txt version. Although getting the logs can be automated, the issue of parsing remains a challenge due to unusual character syntax that can break the patterns."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95f0c86a5617","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95f0c86a56170","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Our proposed solution: to develop a form that would let HUPD enter in incidents and crimes directly into our database"},{"_key":"95f0c86a56171","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" such that they get their PDF files to put on their website while we get their clean raw data for analysis. We hope to create this using Python, Django, and SQL."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8784fb2276d2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8784fb2276d20","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"A Better Data Interface"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"614590d0d648","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"614590d0d6480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The current map is bare-bones, but we want to make it a more powerful visualization tool. For instance, we want people to be able to run interesting queries like organizing incidents by day, time, type, etc., while also being able to generate high-level insights from just seeing the map."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a075d59df06c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a075d59df06c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This will involve becoming more comfortable with the Google Maps API and perhaps using other libraries like d3.js, a popular data visualization JavaScript library."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a929c51869f2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a929c51869f20","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Navigational Tool"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"0534fdcad679","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0534fdcad6790","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We want to leverage our data to provide powerful recommendations to students: we want to replicate Google Maps’s directions feature by showing users not just the fastest route between two points but also the safest one, taking into account the crimes reported and their locations."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"13ee0d42bae2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"13ee0d42bae20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This is a big-picture goal that we’d like to see by the end of next year. We expect that it’ll take extensive experience with the Google Maps API and algorithmic design to implement."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"43ff61726ac8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"43ff61726ac80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Fired up"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f5f31663ce46","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f5f31663ce460","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Police data is a classic example of an open data problem: there is plenty of data available, but because it’s not formatted well, nobody is developing potentially useful tools for the community."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"8f95c77b781f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8f95c77b781f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"With this project, we hope to not only make the community safer but also usher in a new era of data-driven police tools and analytics."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"9945b383194f","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"6638a7f0a0f0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6638a7f0a0f00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ideas for how data-driven tools can be used to protect our community."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-7c1d860424cecf7ed465e7ada79d494bf046daa0-2000x1333-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"40ea3cc3d6bb","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"5b5cc0e6-94e1-4c4c-9920-ac9b4ff3f4ee","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-10-24T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"5fee7a849e48","_ref":"68f1bd94-db43-4d8d-b204-096be8f705d9","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"crime-and-risk-using-open-data-to-make-a-safer-community"},"subjects":[{"_key":"30669a8a56de","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Crime and Risk: Using Open Data to Make a Safer Community","id":"-e1d76694-9d21-5430-afde-466f7d73ed4d","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"6a026151a2d9d4724866d8af23c0c64c","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":275},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"crime-and-risk-using-open-data-to-make-a-safer-community"}}}},{"_key":"ac6d3059f9eb","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"1045f47e-697f-4456-b91d-2de76575f2e9","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEuWuvk","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:07Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:10:02Z","body":[{"_key":"12025b7f3c25","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"12025b7f3c250","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Hi, I’m Yong, part of Harvard’s class of 2019, and a potential computer science concentrator with a global health secondary."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79b0db73c2ca","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79b0db73c2ca0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Food once eaten is something that is out of site and out of mind. We’re not very conscious or, more accurately, most of us just don’t care about the consequences of the amount of trash we produce. It’s something very small, but the impact in adjusting trash practices is potentially huge."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5d51c90978ec","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5d51c90978ec0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"I see plates full of food everyday being thrown away if not eaten, and I’ve been guilty of this before."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"2b93d144e926","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2b93d144e9260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How can we change the conversation? What approaches can we make? How can we reinforce and support programs/policies already in place to decrease food waste? How else can food waste be beneficial instead of detrimental to society? These questions and more are what the HODP food waste team seeks to explore."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b08dda031783","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b08dda0317830","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Harvard students waste a lot of food, which harms our budget and the environment. There are many questions around this topic: How much food do students waste? How does HUDS decide how much food to make? Do interventions like “no-tray” days actually reduce food waste? Through partnerships with HUDS and environmental groups like REPs, we’ll gather data about food waste over time across dining halls, visualize this for the benefit of students and HUDS, and provide recommendations for how to reduce food waste and ensure that any remaining waste is used well."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"76363e57afc9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"76363e57afc90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Meet the team"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"8956ec33c34d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8956ec33c34d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our project presents a variety of challenging problems in data science (how can we measure food waste?) and policy (what action can we take based off of that?) We’ve lined up a great team to tackle it:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d7eb5b09f256","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d7eb5b09f2560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Jackie Chea — Pfoho, Class of 2019, Policy and data science"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5cc390705d53","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5cc390705d530","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Alexis Ross — Canaday, Class of 2020, Policy and data science"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d95a4568d343","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d95a4568d3430","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Michelle Vaccaro — Class of 2019, Policy and data science"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2415511598d1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2415511598d10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background readings"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9dae739a1d62","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9dae739a1d620","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"9dae739a1d621","_type":"span","marks":["f1e8a391b2ee"],"text":"Reducing food waste has economic, environmental and social benefits"},{"_key":"9dae739a1d622","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"f1e8a391b2ee","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/reducing_food_waste_has_economic_environmental_and_social_benefits"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6295704df315","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6295704df3150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"6295704df3151","_type":"span","marks":["c230b61a59ed"],"text":"NYTimes article on preventing food waste"},{"_key":"6295704df3152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"c230b61a59ed","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/31/opinion/preventing-food-waste-a-goal-worth-aiming-for.html?_r=0"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5c61ba537a69","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5c61ba537a690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"5c61ba537a691","_type":"span","marks":["b3e29a9505c6"],"text":"Harvard’s food waste law focus"},{"_key":"5c61ba537a692","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"b3e29a9505c6","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.chlpi.org/food-law-and-policy/reduce-and-recover-save-food-for-people/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"815668cef260","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"815668cef2600","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"815668cef2601","_type":"span","marks":["bad6f2231dc2"],"text":"Harvard’s food waste conference"},{"_key":"815668cef2602","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"bad6f2231dc2","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.wastedive.com/news/save-food-for-people-hundreds-gather-at-harvard-to-discuss-urgent-need-f/421884/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb42d10e8075","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb42d10e80750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"fb42d10e80751","_type":"span","marks":["99161307b493"],"text":"Harvard sustainability office,"},{"_key":"fb42d10e80752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" which has a cool FoodBetter program"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"99161307b493","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://green.harvard.edu/topics/food"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"46193e215812","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"46193e2158120","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Potential solutions"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"1b58886a11ee","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1b58886a11ee0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"1b58886a11ee1","_type":"span","marks":["8bb8bae63f12"],"text":"USDA’s creative solutions to reduce school food waste"},{"_key":"1b58886a11ee2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"8bb8bae63f12","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.fns.usda.gov/school-meals/creative-solutions-ending-school-food-waste"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"31b91839c7c1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"31b91839c7c10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"31b91839c7c11","_type":"span","marks":["e40cf3aee500"],"text":"Other ideas to end school food waste"},{"_key":"31b91839c7c12","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"e40cf3aee500","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://robgreenfield.tv/endschoolfoodwaste/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6b808f1c710b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6b808f1c710b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"6b808f1c710b1","_type":"span","marks":["4c04de12dafe"],"text":"California colleges’ approaches"},{"_key":"6b808f1c710b2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"4c04de12dafe","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/college-campuses-take-food-waste"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b9d6fb90ae00","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b9d6fb90ae000","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"b9d6fb90ae001","_type":"span","marks":["652094d4225e"],"text":"Turning food waste into energy"},{"_key":"b9d6fb90ae002","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[{"_key":"652094d4225e","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/nj_proposal_would_encourage_turning_food_waste_int.html"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1a6d44da12f7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1a6d44da12f70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Existing projects"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"16d5b8929580","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"16d5b89295800","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"16d5b89295801","_type":"span","marks":["5c4ce3ed62c7"],"text":"Western Michigan University students"},{"_key":"16d5b89295802","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" explored policies to reduce food waste in their dining halls and compiled case studies from other universities. This would be an interesting place for us to start!"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5c4ce3ed62c7","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://wmich.edu/sites/default/files/attachments/ENVS%204100%20Final%20Project%20Report%20-%20Merrow,%20Penzien,%20Dubats.pdf"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a1b75f100438","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a1b75f1004380","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"First steps"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"d923d41654ab","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d923d41654ab0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We’ll start by talking to the Harvard Sustainability office, Harvard Dining Services, and more to gather information about what data’s already out there and what data, if any, we need to collect. From there, we’ll be able to figure out what data we can start analyzing and visualizing."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"c1e89a4fff16","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"9ddf4c117b77","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9ddf4c117b770","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ideas for tackling food waste at Harvard."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-572417bdef189864e72e8d4305233a34ae359208-1200x800-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"784dfd0402cf","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"70a5ce60-7330-46af-84b6-11fe39df1717","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-10-31T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"2d43510b96fe","_ref":"ec2c9c70-0e5d-41aa-ab0d-5f31d1fe5ef5","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"e484d9a6d074","_ref":"7e841b98-cce1-4b36-b5fe-e8eaa0ff38a4","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"fooducation-food-waste-project-kick-off"},"subjects":[{"_key":"4dd07fc3299d","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Fooducation: Food Waste Project Kick Off","id":"-4f79b114-e585-509d-aa89-625680fe64ea","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"aef44f056aa9a354a77826d6dd653f79","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":211},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"fooducation-food-waste-project-kick-off"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c691d68f0044","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c691d68f00440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you are at all interested in joining HODP or have a suggestion of a data-driven project we should pursue, reach out to me at ckuang@college.harvard.edu and let’s chat!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","members":[{"_key":"802072b39666","person":{"image":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-63b7b4bfa5bed3d5f78d604bf5b1117bee9f5b21-200x200-jpg"}},"name":"Chris Kuang","slug":{"current":"chris-kuang"}},"roles":["author"]}]}},"pageContext":{"id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0"}},"staticQueryHashes":["2744905544","300934582","727047668"]}