{"componentChunkName":"component---src-templates-project-js","path":"/project/the-data-is-in-here-s-who-will-win-the-uc-presidential-election/","result":{"data":{"project":{"id":"-95f94838-cb2d-5fda-8d53-41baf852dedb","publishedAt":"2017-11-14T06:00:00.000Z","categories":[{"_id":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","title":"Article"}],"subjects":[{"_id":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","title":"Campus"}],"relatedProjects":[{"title":"Predicting the 2018 UC Presidential Election Winners","_id":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","slug":{"current":"predicting-the-2018-uc-presidential-election-winners"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Four tickets are running in the 2018 UC Presidential Election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-d2115c715082ae042c19ef25008fec4b01e575a2-1600x1114-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9c1490d618e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven election forecast by Manasi Maheshwari and Dasha Metropolitansky"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]},{"title":"Your 2019 Harvard UC President will be…","_id":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","slug":{"current":"your-2019-harvard-uc-president-will-be"},"_rawMainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-87f8847b38dbcd64732da2797306c6d345a147df-1400x700-png","_type":"reference"}},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"224b15ace237","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"224b15ace2370","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We ran the numbers. Here's what we found."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}]}],"mainImage":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-b19e9936114fa54865c83dfe9fcaf72d85bc2c05-2000x1500-png"},"alt":"The three pairs of candidates debated this past Sunday in Harvard Hall. [Photo: Neel Mehta]"},"title":"The Data Is In: Here’s Who Will Win the UC Presidential Election","slug":{"current":"the-data-is-in-here-s-who-will-win-the-uc-presidential-election"},"_rawExcerpt":[{"_key":"ff80de938344","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ff80de9383440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven prediction of Harvard’s 2017 contest for student body president."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"_rawBody":[{"_key":"b3822afb4e94","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b3822afb4e940","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This week, almost 7,000 Harvard undergraduates will have the opportunity to vote for UC President and Vice President. Three tickets are running to lead Harvard’s student government: "},{"_key":"b3822afb4e941","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b29f60897c05","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b29f60897c050","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In the fall of 2016, the Harvard Open Data Project ran the first ever data-driven prediction of a UC presidential election, and "},{"_key":"b29f60897c051","_type":"span","marks":["3f8cbcaafdc7"],"text":"correctly predicted the order of the four tickets"},{"_key":"b29f60897c052","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’re hoping to repeat that feat this year. "},{"_key":"b29f60897c053","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"In this article, we’ll look at what polling, social media, endorsements, and fundamentals can tell us about this year’s election."},{"_key":"b29f60897c054","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" In an article published last week, "},{"_key":"b29f60897c055","_type":"span","marks":["15a3303caa71"],"text":"HODP found that Zhang and Boucher may have a small structural advantage going into the race"},{"_key":"b29f60897c056","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", given historical trends in candidates’ houses, previous UC experience, and year in school."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3f8cbcaafdc7","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumTQ4","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:13Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:13Z","body":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f33","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3af0a2716f330","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Well, the dust has settled. After the widely-criticized failure of pundits and pollsters in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 American election, the Harvard Open Data Project launched SixteenThirtySix, the first-ever polling and prediction project undertaken at Harvard College for a student government election. Read our previous posts "},{"_key":"3af0a2716f331","_type":"span","marks":["c0ac74a33282"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f332","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c0ac74a33282","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/@chriskuang"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6f35473e4226","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6f35473e42260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination. We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field.\n\n("},{"_key":"6f35473e42261","_type":"span","marks":["aa3a1524acda"],"text":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction"},{"_key":"6f35473e42262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"- Nov 17, 2016)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"aa3a1524acda","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"82ccbcb90e02","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"82ccbcb90e020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The Results"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quoted above is the prediction we published as polls closed after a three-day voting period. Not without a "},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6321","_type":"span","marks":["08ea0e8203ce"],"text":"hint of controversy"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6322","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" later that night, the election results were certified and released the next day by the UC Election Commission (below)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"08ea0e8203ce","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/18/UC-president-allegations-delay/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ccc2585d0af9","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"2016 Undergraduate Council Election Results"},{"_key":"c348fa89054c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c348fa89054c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quick Takes and Analysis"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b929b308b8fc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite the intricacies of the ranked-choice voting system that are visualized above, Yaz and Cam won a plurality of “1st preference votes” and the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency, followed by Eduardo and Alex, Scott and Evan, and Grant and Alexander. So in other words, "},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"our prediction correctly forecasted not just the winner, but the order in which the other tickets placed as well."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"254656f3c2ff0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"3042 ballots were cast out of Harvard College’s undergraduate population of approximately 6700 — a "},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"voter turnout rate of 45%"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"21cfc6190323","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"21cfc61903230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since more students failed to vote than actually voted, we still view "},{"_key":"21cfc61903231","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"social media to be the most effective campaign tool in UC elections"},{"_key":"21cfc61903232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Yaz and Cam’s superior presence on platforms such as Facebook enabled them to reach a large subset of the student body, which eventually converted into more votes."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"786d949d4a7f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"786d949d4a7f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Looking back at all the metrics that we analyzed before making our prediction, Facebook presence (both by campaigns and individuals) correlates most strongly with the results, while notably endorsements by UC representatives and student organizations do not."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aee494f3f980","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"aee494f3f9800","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Gimmicks work."},{"_key":"aee494f3f9801","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Apart from their social media presence, Yaz and Cam’s campaign coordinated door drops of puzzle pieces in upperclassmen Houses and freshman Yard dorms, a clever play on their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.” In an election with turnout under 50% and abstract stakes in the minds of many eligible voters, this gimmick successfully created buzz and started conversations."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"What does this mean for the future?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"7907ed370656","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7907ed3706560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since UC Presidential tickets are regulated by the Election Commission to spend no more than a certain dollar amount on campaign-related activities, this election has shown that the "},{"_key":"7907ed3706561","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"most efficient avenue for campaign dollars is promoting social media posts"},{"_key":"7907ed3706562","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", a tactic harnessed successfully by Yaz and Cam. One of their competitors, Scott and Evan, invested instead primarily on physical advertisements, including flyers and posters tacked and taped to bulletin boards and dorm-room doors across campus. This more traditional tactic does not appear to have brought Scott and Evan much success, as they finished in third place."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8393fb60538d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8393fb60538d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our poll, despite its statistical flaws, had a fairly accurate representation of the final results. The relatively small nature of Harvard’s undergraduate community, especially compared to the entirely of the United States, helps to minimize the number of flaws in our Google Form survey (imagine Presidential campaign polls being conducted with Google Forms…)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"011bd240027a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"011bd240027a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until Next Time"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a54","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a540","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until the time comes for SixteenThirtySix to predict another election at Harvard (we unfortunately missed the train on the graduate student unionization election), the Harvard Open Data Project will continue on working on other pressing projects, such as the development of a more "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a541","_type":"span","marks":["4f36f1e4238a"],"text":"accessible HUPD police log"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a542","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" that will visualize locations of crimes on a map of Harvard’s campus, or analysis of "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a543","_type":"span","marks":["ac6d3059f9eb"],"text":"HUDS data"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a544","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to minimize food waste in dining halls."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f36f1e4238a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"3d8e84ed-5653-4414-9375-185963b5d211","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ac6d3059f9eb","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1045f47e-697f-4456-b91d-2de76575f2e9","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c691d68f0044","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c691d68f00440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you are at all interested in joining HODP or have a suggestion of a data-driven project we should pursue, reach out to me at ckuang@college.harvard.edu and let’s chat!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"60bbf5ca0d2d","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Thoughts on the 2016 UC election results."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-02ec0b66d4a54cdb1f1bd6d3aef8b4672d5e0e2c-1400x909-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"802072b39666","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-12-01T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"c48b87d9f48e","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"961aeb3406cd","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"},"subjects":[{"_key":"8aa79ba96e1a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Our Analysis","id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"a133917d2014445e1185da8ee15ae673","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":370},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"}}}},{"_key":"15a3303caa71","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjBGpO","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:25:07Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:33:38Z","body":[{"_key":"957368b366cf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"957368b366cf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, three tickets are vying to be the next President and Vice President of the Undergraduate Council (UC), Harvard’s top student government post. Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher have thrown their hats in the ring."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e458982d5ff90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project used surveys and social media data to "},{"_key":"e458982d5ff91","_type":"span","marks":["1c12e1f300c5"],"text":"correctly predict the outcome of the UC Presidential election"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’ll do a similar project this year (stay tuned!), but we want to take it a step further — we want to see what we can learn about the election before campaigning even starts."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"1c12e1f300c5","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c598eaf33975","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c598eaf339750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To figure out who the favorites might be heading into the campaign, we at HODP dove into past election data. Popular election of UC presidents began in 1996, but "},{"_key":"c598eaf339751","_type":"span","marks":["e18ea3ddbb65"],"text":"until 2005, presidents and vice presidents were elected separately."},{"_key":"c598eaf339752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Though there is lots of interesting data from before 2005 "},{"_key":"c598eaf339753","_type":"span","marks":["97856fe8b951"],"text":"(including a presidential campaign by CS50 Professor David Malan)"},{"_key":"c598eaf339754","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", HODP’s analysis is only based on the 2005–2016 elections, since these have the same rules as the current electoral system."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e18ea3ddbb65","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2004/12/10/glazer-nichols-elected-in-split-vote/"},{"_key":"97856fe8b951","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1997/12/4/candidates-debate-issues-pcandidates-vying-for/?page=1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7ae4a41e3051","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7ae4a41e30510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In this article, we’ll look into what past results can tell us about this year’s race."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a2ffac28ad28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a2ffac28ad280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"53d188e01af6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"53d188e01af60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experience matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f1","_type":"span","marks":["89c15a51a1bf"],"text":"According to The Harvard Crimson,"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" by 2007, no UC presidential candidate without prior UC experience had ever won. Since then, the results have been remarkably similar. The only UC outsider to win the presidency has been Samuel Clark, who in 2013 rode to power on a joke ticket that promised to resign immediately upon being elected."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"89c15a51a1bf","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2007/12/10/with-turnout-low-sundquist-sarafa-wins-uc/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC has been popularly electing presidents for 21 years. But only once, in 2013, has a presidential candidate without prior UC experience won the top spot in Harvard’s student government."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, since 2005, 11 of the 12 winning vice presidential candidates have had UC experience. The only exception was Clark’s running mate, Gus Mayopoulos."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7c0769c5b202","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c0769c5b2020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC insiders seem to dominate the presidential elections. “Insider-insider” tickets (those in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience) only constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time. That is, insider-insider tickets have won every single year besides 2013."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1d2dc80a9f92","_type":"figure","alt":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election."},{"_key":"68a0d3e33851","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"68a0d3e338510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Obviously, these results do not mean that a ticket with an outsider candidate can’t ’win. Our sample size is small, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Plus, a pair of candidates without any UC experience showed in 2013 that outsiders can win. And let’s not forget Donald Trump, who won the American Presidency in 2016 with zero prior governmental experience."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9264158705b7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9264158705b70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our findings on experience aren’t perfect, but they indicate an advantage for experienced tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"130bff6db299","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"130bff6db2990","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"130bff6db2991","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" They’re the only ticket where both candidates have served on the UC (both, in fact, are leaders on the UC’s Executive Committee). Agbafe also serves on the UC, but his running mate, Bervell, does not. Healy does not have prior UC experience, but is well known on campus from the Open Campus Initiative; his running mate, Thakker, currently serves on the UC."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a485ff95c1e4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a485ff95c1e40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f08feebc9886","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f08feebc98860","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class year matters… but less than you might think"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f9dc06e6a592","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9dc06e6a5920","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors have dominated UC elections. In 11 of the past 12 years (or 91.7% of elections), the UC President and VP have both been juniors. (In the other year, 2006, the President was a junior but the VP was a sophomore.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"50a76e162cae","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"50a76e162cae0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no non-junior has ever been elected UC President. And only once, in 2006, was a non-junior vice presidential candidate elected."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"92b9cabfee67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"92b9cabfee670","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These data would suggest that students look for UC Presidents that have spent more time at Harvard, possibly because that gives them a deeper knowledge of the institution. (Why juniors and not seniors? UC Presidential terms are for a calendar year, so seniors usually can’t run, because by the time they take office in the spring they only have 1 semester left.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"545fb50d5873","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"545fb50d58730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But the junior advantage might not be all that surprising. The vast majority (94.7%) of presidential candidates and most (81.6%) of the vice presidential candidates are juniors, so there’s a pretty limited pool of non-juniors who could win to begin with! So, to us, it’s unclear whether number of years at Harvard is a significant factor in electoral outcomes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cc071df3466","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cc071df34660","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: nobody."},{"_key":"2cc071df34661","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" This year, all six of the presidential and vice presidential candidates come from the junior class, so this class year advantage does not make an impact. It’s worth noting, though, that Parth Thakker is a social senior (originally class of ’18, now ‘19)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"279ab39e5048","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"279ab39e50480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There might be a “Quad advantage”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"055bbeab4c82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"055bbeab4c820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"HODP recorded the houses of past UC presidential and vice presidential candidates, and found that a surprisingly high number of them come from just a few houses. For example, Adams has produced 1 presidential candidate and no vice presidential candidates since 2005, and Leverett has produced 1 of each since 2005. But Currier has produced 6 presidential candidates and 4 vice presidential candidates since 2005."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cd55239dbdf","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-ae206673ace05ba18080d517a0d65adea38821f3-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"c88b1a0dcb5a","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-7b87748543f4db26ba7b6e372420e226dbb8b151-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"df6a71f21ca5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"df6a71f21ca50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Look closely and you’ll notice that candidates from the Quad houses seem to be much more successful than candidates from the river houses. Since 2005, 50% of presidential candidates from the Quad have won, while only 20% of presidential candidates from the river have won. As for Dudley House, only one presidential candidate since 2005 has run from that house, and he won!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"046abb7110f9","_type":"figure","alt":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005.","asset":{"_ref":"image-00238b4188f200902f609a83ee4b2c0ad5bb8a3e-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005."},{"_key":"5f156af63d93","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5f156af63d930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, more UC Presidents have come from the Quad than from the River, even though three times as many students live on the River. Again, we have a very small sample here, so we shouldn’t draw too many definitive conclusions from this, but there could potentially be some “quad advantage” going on. On the other hand, we found that only one 1 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the Quad — all the rest came from the River!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27823ea33d72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27823ea33d720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Given our data since 2005, it seems like the winning combo might be a presidential candidate from the Quad with a vice presidential candidate from the River."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The hypothetical “Quad advantage” gets even more interesting when you mix in the factor of UC experience. Since 2005, 10 juniors from the Quad with UC experience have run for UC President. Six of those candidates have won. Three of those candidates lost to "},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"other"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" juniors from the Quad with UC experience. The tenth candidate got 2nd place to 2013’s joke ticket. In other words:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no presidential candidate from the Quad with UC experience has ever lost to a candidate from the River (except in 2013’s wave election)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"9208718d02cc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9208718d02cc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Qualitatively, this advantage is also plausible. The Quad is well-known as a close-knit community on campus, so Quad residents might be more likely to know and vote for a UC presidential candidate from any of the 3 Quad houses. In addition, "},{"_key":"9208718d02cc1","_type":"span","marks":["acc476e19b6c"],"text":"HODP has found that the Quad consistently has higher turnout in general UC representative elections."},{"_key":"9208718d02cc2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We don’t have data on presidential elections stratified by house, but assuming that these trends hold true, that higher turnout might also explain the “Quad advantage.”"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"acc476e19b6c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/HODP%20UC%20election%20data%20analysis%2C%20fall%202017.xlsx"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As usual, our sample size is small, and it’s entirely possible that the trend we’ve seen is solely due to chance. Nonetheless, this is an interesting finding."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d420249f3a1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d420249f3a10","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"2d420249f3a11","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" If there is a “Quad advantage”, it would help the Zhang-Boucher ticket. Zhang hails from Cabot House, while Boucher lives in Mather. That’s the prized Quad-River combo discussed above! The other two tickets have all-River candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2661c22f1a97","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2661c22f1a970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb2eb635f497","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb2eb635f4970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"What we know heading into the campaign — and what we don’t"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"2c79615005b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2c79615005b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our sample is quite small, and past results don’t guarantee future ones. Plus, unexpected things can always happen in elections — if you need a reminder, just remember Trump’s election a year ago!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, with all the usual caveats, we can observe some general trends from past years that might be helpful in looking at the 2017 presidential election. "},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If you’re champing at the bit to know how this year’s election might go, early speculation based on past results might suggest a slight advantage for Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" That said, it’s still far too early to make any real predictions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d046bda8d09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d046bda8d090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How will the election actually shape up? We’ll be back next week with our second annual polls and analyses to see if we can figure that out. Stay tuned!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ca49c2b8a7e4","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"52541916baea","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52541916baea0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Trends from past UC Presidential elections, and what we can tell about this year’s contest… before campaigning even starts!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"A debate from the 2016 Undergraduate Council elections. (Photo credit: Aridenne A. Dews for the Harvard Crimson)","asset":{"_ref":"image-7d8ec5140bec95d7ddfb50e84758dd9cd4c32227-1500x899-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"b4b66d8b9951","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-11-05T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"},"subjects":[{"_key":"318b69fd6609","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Here’s What Successful UC Presidential Candidates Had in Common","id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"4d832ac77e162c87b1400c633556ae53","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":264},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"928ce0a0fa91","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"928ce0a0fa910","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So, what do our stats say about who will win? Let’s dive in."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b23e5f91e51b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b23e5f91e51b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b30f3972590c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b30f3972590c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Polling Indicates a Zhang-Boucher Lead"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a98","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da9fbb172a980","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Early this week, HODP conducted a relatively unscientific poll of all Harvard undergraduates. The poll asked two questions: a respondent’s year in school, and who they intended to vote for. Due to limited resources and a desire not to distort incentives, we did not provide any reward for filling out the survey. "},{"_key":"da9fbb172a981","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Still, we received 373 respondents"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a982","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and we operated under the assumption that the type of people who are likely to vote in the UC election ("},{"_key":"da9fbb172a983","_type":"span","marks":["d1bb2f947209"],"text":"which tends to have very low voter turnout"},{"_key":"da9fbb172a984","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":") are also the type of people who are likely to fill out a survey without an incentive."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d1bb2f947209","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"project","_rev":"0HKRM86CFJ4e5MqjEumTQ4","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:22:13Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:19:13Z","body":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2dd7ecbcb12d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Background"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f33","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"3af0a2716f330","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Well, the dust has settled. After the widely-criticized failure of pundits and pollsters in the immediate aftermath of the 2016 American election, the Harvard Open Data Project launched SixteenThirtySix, the first-ever polling and prediction project undertaken at Harvard College for a student government election. Read our previous posts "},{"_key":"3af0a2716f331","_type":"span","marks":["c0ac74a33282"],"text":"here"},{"_key":"3af0a2716f332","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"c0ac74a33282","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://medium.com/@chriskuang"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6f35473e4226","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6f35473e42260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We believe that Yaz and Cam’s formidable advantages on social media and with the freshman class will be a winning combination. We predict that, close behind them will be Eduardo and Alex, followed by Scott and Evan, with Grant and Alexander rounding out the field.\n\n("},{"_key":"6f35473e42261","_type":"span","marks":["aa3a1524acda"],"text":"SixteenThirtySix: Making Our Prediction"},{"_key":"6f35473e42262","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"- Nov 17, 2016)"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"aa3a1524acda","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"82ccbcb90e02","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"82ccbcb90e020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The Results"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe632","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6320","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quoted above is the prediction we published as polls closed after a three-day voting period. Not without a "},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6321","_type":"span","marks":["08ea0e8203ce"],"text":"hint of controversy"},{"_key":"d8cb8dbbe6322","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" later that night, the election results were certified and released the next day by the UC Election Commission (below)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"08ea0e8203ce","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/18/UC-president-allegations-delay/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ccc2585d0af9","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-9015da05a6455da690089760a97895811c981c38-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"2016 Undergraduate Council Election Results"},{"_key":"c348fa89054c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c348fa89054c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Quick Takes and Analysis"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b929b308b8fc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite the intricacies of the ranked-choice voting system that are visualized above, Yaz and Cam won a plurality of “1st preference votes” and the UC Presidency and Vice-Presidency, followed by Eduardo and Alex, Scott and Evan, and Grant and Alexander. So in other words, "},{"_key":"b929b308b8fc1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"our prediction correctly forecasted not just the winner, but the order in which the other tickets placed as well."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"254656f3c2ff0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"3042 ballots were cast out of Harvard College’s undergraduate population of approximately 6700 — a "},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"voter turnout rate of 45%"},{"_key":"254656f3c2ff2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"21cfc6190323","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"21cfc61903230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since more students failed to vote than actually voted, we still view "},{"_key":"21cfc61903231","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"social media to be the most effective campaign tool in UC elections"},{"_key":"21cfc61903232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Yaz and Cam’s superior presence on platforms such as Facebook enabled them to reach a large subset of the student body, which eventually converted into more votes."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"786d949d4a7f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"786d949d4a7f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Looking back at all the metrics that we analyzed before making our prediction, Facebook presence (both by campaigns and individuals) correlates most strongly with the results, while notably endorsements by UC representatives and student organizations do not."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"aee494f3f980","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"aee494f3f9800","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Gimmicks work."},{"_key":"aee494f3f9801","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Apart from their social media presence, Yaz and Cam’s campaign coordinated door drops of puzzle pieces in upperclassmen Houses and freshman Yard dorms, a clever play on their campaign slogan of “piecing it all together.” In an election with turnout under 50% and abstract stakes in the minds of many eligible voters, this gimmick successfully created buzz and started conversations."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"83fa9f4aa47f0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"What does this mean for the future?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"7907ed370656","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7907ed3706560","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since UC Presidential tickets are regulated by the Election Commission to spend no more than a certain dollar amount on campaign-related activities, this election has shown that the "},{"_key":"7907ed3706561","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"most efficient avenue for campaign dollars is promoting social media posts"},{"_key":"7907ed3706562","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", a tactic harnessed successfully by Yaz and Cam. One of their competitors, Scott and Evan, invested instead primarily on physical advertisements, including flyers and posters tacked and taped to bulletin boards and dorm-room doors across campus. This more traditional tactic does not appear to have brought Scott and Evan much success, as they finished in third place."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8393fb60538d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8393fb60538d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our poll, despite its statistical flaws, had a fairly accurate representation of the final results. The relatively small nature of Harvard’s undergraduate community, especially compared to the entirely of the United States, helps to minimize the number of flaws in our Google Form survey (imagine Presidential campaign polls being conducted with Google Forms…)"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"011bd240027a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"011bd240027a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until Next Time"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a54","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a540","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Until the time comes for SixteenThirtySix to predict another election at Harvard (we unfortunately missed the train on the graduate student unionization election), the Harvard Open Data Project will continue on working on other pressing projects, such as the development of a more "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a541","_type":"span","marks":["4f36f1e4238a"],"text":"accessible HUPD police log"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a542","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" that will visualize locations of crimes on a map of Harvard’s campus, or analysis of "},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a543","_type":"span","marks":["ac6d3059f9eb"],"text":"HUDS data"},{"_key":"f71f6c5e6a544","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" to minimize food waste in dining halls."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"4f36f1e4238a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"3d8e84ed-5653-4414-9375-185963b5d211","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ac6d3059f9eb","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1045f47e-697f-4456-b91d-2de76575f2e9","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c691d68f0044","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c691d68f00440","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you are at all interested in joining HODP or have a suggestion of a data-driven project we should pursue, reach out to me at ckuang@college.harvard.edu and let’s chat!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"60bbf5ca0d2d","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6e098afc5a3c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Thoughts on the 2016 UC election results."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-02ec0b66d4a54cdb1f1bd6d3aef8b4672d5e0e2c-1400x909-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"802072b39666","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"87091047-eff5-455f-887d-9804945c8643","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2016-12-01T08:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"c48b87d9f48e","_ref":"4988d1df-0e23-43af-976f-19aaedb8ec5b","_type":"reference"},{"_key":"961aeb3406cd","_ref":"1a3ccb12-5472-495e-bee9-98b1a8864b1f","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"},"subjects":[{"_key":"8aa79ba96e1a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"SixteenThirtySix: Our Analysis","id":"-723fad11-4a6f-5cde-94a3-35468b039de0","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"a133917d2014445e1185da8ee15ae673","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":370},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"sixteenthirtysix-our-analysis"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d7febf591625","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a 45% lead in HODP’s poll over their closest competitors, Agbafe and Bervell.","asset":{"_id":"image-56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2-700x432-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj7Ljm","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T01:49:38Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T01:49:38Z","assetId":"56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6203703703703705,"height":432,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940406","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940406","foreground":"#fff","population":2.82,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":7.2,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d7c1c3","foreground":"#000","population":0.22,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f8f2e4","foreground":"#000","population":0.06,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#945864","foreground":"#fff","population":0.01,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":7.2,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im1.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2-700x432.png","sha1hash":"56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2","size":27413,"uploadId":"p9Mb2D7JVAZA5p4od5eGGoIeavDenDta","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2-700x432.png","id":"image-56598f83a877bf5a5a676b12634b2cf58e9999a2-700x432-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"8ed7205461cce1e38b5e610dd51e58d6","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":740},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a 45% lead in HODP’s poll over their closest competitors, Agbafe and Bervell."},{"_key":"705dabbe79bb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"705dabbe79bb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, we found that Zhang and Boucher enjoy a significant lead over the other two tickets in the polls."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"22d7a9d7e936","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"22d7a9d7e9360","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"66.2% for Zhang and Boucher"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5d870df785ec","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5d870df785ec0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"20.6% for Agbafe and Bervell"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"44f823730339","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"44f8237303390","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"13.1% for Healy and Thakker"}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Zhang and Boucher hold a noticeable lead over the other candidates among all four class years at Harvard, as seen below. HODP has found that "},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a1","_type":"span","marks":["094a34cdd984"],"text":"freshmen tend to turn out at higher rates than other classes in UC general elections"},{"_key":"e1d88dcf6e1a2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and we believe this trend will hold in the presidential elections as well (although the official presidential election results do not break out votes by year)."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"094a34cdd984","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoc4WM","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:37Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T03:09:42Z","body":[{"_key":"e901d17ee895","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e901d17ee8950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A new school year is upon us, and with it comes another round of Undergraduate Council elections. The UC elects three representatives from each of the 12 upperclass Houses and 4 freshman yards— plus the president and VP, who are elected separately, making a group of 50."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"30e774bdf693","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"30e774bdf6930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC is a major force on campus. "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6931","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"The Finance Committee distributes"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6932","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6933","_type":"span","marks":["strong","fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"$300,000 a year"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6934","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"30e774bdf6935","_type":"span","marks":["fc283c37a2c6"],"text":"to student clubs,"},{"_key":"30e774bdf6936","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and UC leaders run everything from Thanksgiving shuttles to menstrual hygiene product installation in bathrooms. So it’s important that students are engaged in the UC elections."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fc283c37a2c6","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://uc.fas.harvard.edu/grants/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"82a82f652014","_type":"figure","alt":"UC's Logo","asset":{"_ref":"image-ff2e2766e322ff60ad4325f6cf39ba3df01bc180-335x335-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"UC's Logo"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe042","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0420","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, last semester, we reported about "},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0421","_type":"span","marks":["ff1182860332"],"text":"how literally nobody voted in the Quincy midterm elections"},{"_key":"4ffed0bbe0422","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", among other signs of disturbingly low turnout. While it seems turnout this semester has improved (Quincy literally improved “infinitely,” if you will, since they jumped up from 0), unfortunately, there are still some glaring issues. Let’s jump into them."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"ff1182860332","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"52108686e7e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52108686e7e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7af98801e753","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7af98801e7530","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our open data source"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"32428da94729","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"32428da947290","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At the Harvard Open Data Project, we are committed to holding Harvard’s institutions accountable through open information. We obtained official turnout data from Harvard’s Election Commission, "},{"_key":"32428da947291","_type":"span","marks":["3b9682e9e7af"],"text":"which we have now made public,"},{"_key":"32428da947292","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" and below we’ll share our insights in the hopes of shedding light on the voting process and the outcome."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3b9682e9e7af","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/UC%20elections%20fall%202017.pdf"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"28724a72e130","_type":"figure","alt":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon.","asset":{"_ref":"image-b632d0ce06ef69ab1b017f4501fc4e010ef9697e-522x403-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Voter turnout by house/yard. All graphs courtesy of Stephen Moon."},{"_key":"e02be3a22769","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e02be3a227690","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Despite having 402 eligible voters, Dunster’s turnout was abysmally low. However, this is understandable given than "},{"_key":"e02be3a227691","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"only 1 person was running in the first place"},{"_key":"e02be3a227692","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Junior Gevin Reynolds ran unopposed and was met with an expected victory. (To his credit, he earned 11 votes.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4dde35564d9d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4dde35564d9d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Anyone in Dunster could have written in their name and won a seat on the Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2b2b60b5c25b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This wasn’t an isolated incident. Adams, Dudley, Lowell, Mather, and Quincy were all no-contests as well. Everyone who ran got a spot. In fact, the most competitive race in the upperclass Houses was Pforzheimer, where 4 people vied for 2 open spots, an “admission” rate of 50%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"081547e08740","_type":"figure","alt":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive.","asset":{"_ref":"image-4f92a1a693ad09387ded29dcaa24312d4cd99517-649x401-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Several houses, such as Adams and Dunster, were uncontested. The freshman yards, seen on the right, were far more competitive."},{"_key":"faa03c038ebe","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"faa03c038ebe0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7a29dfe62008","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7a29dfe620080","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Why the enthusiasm gap?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b95b1758ce2d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"We brainstormed several hypotheses for why some houses had such abysmal turnout and why some fared better. The hypothesis most supported by the data was that more-contested elections attracted more voters than less-contested ones. This trend was generally true, but there were many exceptions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e3459b16e08c","_type":"figure","alt":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board.","asset":{"_ref":"image-442a96377f3629cfe06b8ca9ae4451bc29b61d36-632x400-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Generally, more candidates meant higher turnout, but this wasn’t true across the board."},{"_key":"5161a49729e8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5161a49729e80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Winthrop had 5 candidates in the running, but only 21 of the 410 eligible students, or 5.12%, voted. "},{"_key":"5161a49729e81","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Mather had virtually no choice regarding their UC representative, yet their turnout (8.92%) still surpassed Winthrop’s."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8b10459ada11","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8b10459ada110","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In general, though, the houses with more candidates did seem to have higher turnout."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"6102293b62b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6102293b62b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8c5af6b16149","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8c5af6b161490","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Insurgence in Eliot"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"84ba6c8cdc4e","_type":"figure","alt":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)","asset":{"_ref":"image-ec16264d92583cd2b042962d44850c10766874e2-660x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"House of Eliot (play on House of Cards)"},{"_key":"39592c39c2c9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"39592c39c2c90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This fall’s Eliot UC election produced a record voter turnout of 30.25%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2a08557a702f","_type":"figure","alt":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year.","asset":{"_ref":"image-3178ad957341266143bf64f0b3f90167aec58b66-600x371-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The highest turnout in each House since Spring 2016. Eliot set its all-time high this year."},{"_key":"1c135c175ccc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1c135c175ccc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In Eliot, 4 sophomores faced off against 1 senior for 3 coveted positions. One of the winning candidates, Arnav Agrawal, ran on a platform of providing free menstrual health supplies within the house and improving mental health services. These issues were also central to Agrawal’s freshman year successful UC platform. Perhaps this exciting race will set a precedent for other candidates in future elections."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d689117c998b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d689117c998b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"942ce92b5a7d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Who knew freshmen were so politically engaged?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"c7a1908ea9a7","_type":"figure","asset":{"_ref":"image-e56489fdf41a69d0b27173655e617b4a94185992-700x229-png","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"d61473ade166","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d61473ade1660","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The freshman class had both the greatest amount of candidates and the largest voter turnout by a wide margin. Even the freshman yard with the lowest turnout, Ivy Yard (39.29%), had a better voter turnout than the upperclassman house with the highest turnout, Eliot (30.25%)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"bd67bb550030","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"bd67bb5500300","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Overall, the freshman class’s voter turnout was a striking 45.38%. This relatively high turnout was more than three times as high as the overall voter turnout for upperclassmen, which was just 14.10%."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"da5167b2328c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"da5167b2328c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7bd5dc6b25c10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A call to action"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"85ac75b452c5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"85ac75b452c50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While we might make fun of it sometimes, low voter turnout is a huge problem on campus. The UC was created specifically to give students, elected by their peers, the ability to change the Harvard experience. Failure to participate in this process is a waste of a valuable opportunity. Casting your vote is the easiest way to ensure that your voice is being heard and that you are adequately represented."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a232107a131e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a232107a131e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Most students will spend 4 years in college. It’s time to make them count."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ee91e16176a9","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","asset":{"_ref":"image-f3e77a3665decac18113a79b6f5980d7fbb9ea51-971x619-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"7a2eceb07622","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"c4d23029-6e38-4f6b-8135-b03c9211fb0f","_type":"reference"},"roles":["author"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-02T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[{"_key":"213f2c342fd3","_ref":"67dabb21-d1cb-40f5-ba12-c2beff0657f7","_type":"reference"}],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"380301fbf88b","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"You, Too, Could Have Won The Dunster UC Election","id":"-ae5094fb-df08-5c27-8c5a-7f2e8b72dc25","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"3d846f08eec6d1437258df3d4f408b31","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1686},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"you-too-could-have-won-the-dunster-uc-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7992a3a3bd67","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher dominate every class year, but they have stronger results among older students.","asset":{"_id":"image-1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134-700x433-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj83uA","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T01:59:06Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T01:59:06Z","assetId":"1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6166281755196306,"height":433,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAABQAAAAMCAIAAADtbgqsAAAACXBIWXMAAAsSAAALEgHS3X78AAAB0UlEQVQoz2WSbW/aMBDH+f5fYG/3YpM2VZu6B1BVdeNhrVhLaVjHY5ICgtJCYuIQ7Pg57JxAVY2/LCu273d3ubuSEIJSus1FCKEHcc6NMTtQlhWbyeye5cdCpRe4INODLKx1ZkymFCytNOMqZRLspZSFixK4h0NxpaTUChaYKsWo2kSaJCoKFFpKQrYbEkUxxhgiwbuFwYcGAcBSjdeGJIZuDdmo8ImN/oj5mPtdNnDUesXxGocrhFAcx5AXgCXwUcSUaMV6d2AtZj73e+KhT28b3OuyXjvtNDVayC1K1iuMoyRJ9jBjDL4s/DynNzUbp++kzhUfdmirbuF+Dq+XWhBOE8ZS+EfI1aZta8MYsPRxhptVOuqSv21ye8kGHfIajsLMaGPyEh4KXspLJZhUC3fqnZ09Oe351WVQryDn97JR3Q7AV4u2GzoKdq+atIeNlaZC9xyv+f5d70f55vMn9+TN6KJ8f/rtsdWc/7pA1RMVTLJjOB8Akwrt9sd3px+GtS/tyle3/HZYP7+vfJ9c1wY/zxfVjzLwYUzA9hjOpII24eXDCM2854kfjvvhbBKMPbyYBtNJPHNViv8j93DB22YXPROCQxkpEZy9zAxktzvSP5p2n8EIUPhFAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9a5d47","foreground":"#fff","population":0.22,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cc3c0f","foreground":"#fff","population":0.17,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#da3810","foreground":"#fff","population":3.05,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d4afb4","foreground":"#000","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f1ab2d","foreground":"#000","population":0.34,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#b15e53","foreground":"#fff","population":0.24,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#da3810","foreground":"#fff","population":3.05,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im2.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134-700x433.png","sha1hash":"1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134","size":38806,"uploadId":"AOwsdpb8b0jIhuQyixMfoXQSDbvow5Kn","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134-700x433.png","id":"image-1222fe015d5b0ec36c6843cb60f271f32364c134-700x433-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"7b55b0ca9f528e61607e76e896f3ee27","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1481},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher dominate every class year, but they have stronger results among older students."},{"_key":"d09b6ea6313e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d09b6ea6313e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Agbafe and Bervell see their best performance among the freshmen class, and tend to do worse with older voters, while Zhang and Boucher see the opposite trend. That’s all relative, though; Zhang and Boucher lead Agbafe and Bervell by at least 35 percentage points in every class year. Given Zhang and Boucher’s all-round dominance, Agbafe and Bervell will likely see a second place result this week."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd0","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"0e87da1be8dd1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Our polling, while imperfect, does seem to suggest a significant advantage for Zhang and Boucher in this year’s election. The race for runner-up between Agbafe-Bervell and Healy-Thakker is close, but Agbafe-Bervell appear to have a slight edge."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a77684ff5563","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a77684ff55630","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d3b69d240927","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3b69d2409270","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Indicates a Zhang-Boucher Lead"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a1e1459e423","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a1e1459e4230","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Outreach and name recognition are crucial components to winning a campaign. "},{"_key":"4a1e1459e4231","_type":"span","marks":["a66beff577f2"],"text":"HODP has found that a solid social media presence was correlated with more votes"},{"_key":"4a1e1459e4232","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" in last year’s UC Presidential election. This year, in several different measures, Zhang and Boucher lead the pack in their social media presence. As seen below, in total page likes, Zhang and Boucher had the most, followed by Agbafe and Bervell, with Healy and Thakker rounding out the pack."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"a66beff577f2","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"27bb2755-5196-4731-aa9a-927851e9b7a5","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmollp0","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:56Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T06:28:43Z","body":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The campaign for President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council kicks off this week! At the time of writing, "},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b1","_type":"span","marks":["634a8da32e48"],"text":"three tickets have thrown their hats in the ring"},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":": Catherine Zhang & Nick Boucher, Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, and Conor Healy & Parth Thakker. It’s shaping up to be a competitive race."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"634a8da32e48","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeNa6e1xt9D8oXnYv8G6C7B9xY3WQvYiN8kiq9IyISkrduNfw/viewform"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1982c24f70e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1982c24f70e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So what can the tickets do to set themselves apart?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ceb31331e51d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d1","_type":"span","marks":["fd42ab003c3c"],"text":"the Harvard Open Data Project (HODP) successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential election"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and in doing so, we gathered data to form hypotheses about what strategies correlated with a ticket’s electoral success. "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d3","_type":"span","marks":["ef621d081710"],"text":"Chris Kuang of HODP provided a detailed analysis of the results"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Here, we’ll recap our biggest findings and how this year’s candidates can use them to their advantage."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fd42ab003c3c","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ef621d081710","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78a467c31a14","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78a467c31a140","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For reference, "},{"_key":"78a467c31a141","_type":"span","marks":["3bf0b1376686"],"text":"here are the vote tallies from last year:"},{"_key":"78a467c31a142","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3bf0b1376686","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"753c38065378","_type":"figure","alt":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander.","asset":{"_ref":"image-46cf2c6b9dd073c052f0f16103995f7d78550cd9-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander."},{"_key":"8340814f542d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8340814f542d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"a51d6c4eb728","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a51d6c4eb7280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7da56c4cae310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social media outreach seems to be one of the most important factors — if not "},{"_key":"7da56c4cae311","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"the"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae312","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" most important — in predicting a candidate’s success in the UC presidential election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ded8349cb715","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ded8349cb7150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, we measured social media outreach in two ways. We looked at the total number of likes on a ticket’s official Facebook page. We also considered the sum of likes on profile pictures featuring a ticket’s "},{"_key":"ded8349cb7151","_type":"span","marks":["8d708df1dee8"],"text":"promotional “frame” on Facebook"},{"_key":"ded8349cb7152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"8d708df1dee8","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://developers.facebook.com/products/camera-effects/frame-studio/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"be4f8462abf60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ranking the tickets by either of these metrics gives "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf61","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"exactly the same"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"order"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" as the actual vote tallies (that is, the greater vote-getters also got more social media engagement every single time). Social media success is very strongly correlated with electoral success — but let’s not forget that correlation does not imply causation."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d656beeb8e20","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on official Facebook pages.","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on official Facebook pages."},{"_key":"947ee2170142","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign.","asset":{"_ref":"image-f9b4bb8fe0405fbdd571c392faf2b8755b418796-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign."},{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you create a ranking of the tickets based on either of these metrics, it produces the exact final ranking of the candidates in the actual election results. (Now is likely a good time to remind readers that correlation does not imply causation.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our analysis indicates that gaining serious name recognition through both a popular Facebook page and getting a wide network of Harvard students to change their profile pictures in support is key to winning the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"f819be327c28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f819be327c280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on Freshmen"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb1","_type":"span","marks":["bd26cb5a449e"],"text":"Freshmen consistently turn out at far higher rates than upperclassmen do in UC elections"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", both in the fall and the midterms. While we don’t have stratified turnout data by class for last year’s presidential election, the only class year that Yasmin and Cameron won were the freshmen, so it is reasonable to infer that the freshmen had high turnout relative to other classes. In addition, from qualitative interviews with fellow students, upperclassmen are far more likely to already know a candidate personally and have made up their mind. On the other hand, it is likely that fewer freshmen will know the candidates on a personal level and will be more open to consider all candidates."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"bd26cb5a449e","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e08d02be7d26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e08d02be7d260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For these reasons, personally meeting freshmen seems to provide the greatest return on investment for a candidate’s time. In last year’s (relatively unscientific) HODP election poll, the ranking of candidates among freshman exactly matched the final election results. In addition, the winning pair, Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia, knocked on freshman doors, though they were not the only candidate pair to do so."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"424f9fed4218","_type":"figure","alt":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class.","asset":{"_ref":"image-790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class."},{"_key":"98cfec411ebf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"98cfec411ebf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Upperclassmen matter, too, but there’s some evidence that spending additional time with freshmen can yield great results. This conclusion is based on the traditionally higher freshman turnout and the decreased likelihood of freshmen having made up their minds through personal relationships."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Don’t Really Matter"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a34139cfb720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When campaigning to be president of the UC, it might seem natural to spend time schmoozing with members of the UC and leaders of student organizations. While this is likely valuable to some degree, endorsements were not a great predictor of final election results. Last year, a ranking of endorsements from student organizations (weighted based on organization size) would have predicted a win by Eduardo Gonzalez and Alex Popovski, who ultimately came in second. A ranking of endorsements from UC representatives would have predicted a win by Scott Ely and Evan Bonsall, who finished in third. Finally, "},{"_key":"4a34139cfb721","_type":"span","marks":["5755216b643d"],"text":"The Crimson Editorial Board endorsed Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb722","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" last fall."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5755216b643d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4370830c499e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4370830c499e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, none of these metrics would have correctly predicted the results of the election, though this does not necessarily imply there isn’t a causal relationship between endorsements and voting."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5eb7547d2ed0","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations.","asset":{"_ref":"image-0b3a9ce30bdd1e8f3af25cecf8b0b87be5c1c62c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations."},{"_key":"6ca0894d5b66","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016.","asset":{"_ref":"image-416598b0e59c5c6d66f891b0c732b77986363902-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016."},{"_key":"1311161179a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1311161179a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates should be cautious not to focus too much on wooing student leaders, and instead focus on individual voters."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Money Allocation Matters More than Total Spending"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When we think about national politics, we often think that campaign spending strongly correlates with electoral success. However, this relationship does not necessarily hold for Harvard’s UC presidential elections. Last year, the winning pair was third out of four tickets in total spending."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates are permitted to spend up to $200 on their campaigns, and "},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba1","_type":"span","marks":["70967d2b89ad"],"text":"two pairs were within $5 of this amount last year."},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" However, the winning pair was the one that spent the bulk of their funding on social media and a gimmick targeted at freshmen. Yasmin and Cameron spent a total of $163.73 on their campaign, $78.23 of which was spent on social media campaigns (Snapchat filter and Facebook promotions). Although they were third in total spending, they led the pack in spending on social media, which, as we’ve seen above, is strongly correlated with electoral success."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"70967d2b89ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/12/9/uc-candidates-spending-breakdown/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4baba840e0a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4baba840e0a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Yasmin and Cameron spent $30 on puzzle pieces, which they gave out to voters, particularly freshmen. This giveaway may have helped them at the ballot box. It’s worth noting that the second-place ticket, Eduardo and Alex, was the only other campaign to come up with a free giveaway gimmick (stickers, in this case)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"45c7362f6676","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"45c7362f66760","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yasmin and Cameron’s smart move to focus their funding on social media, name recognition, and freshmen may have contributed to their success in the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d3d99a798bf5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3d99a798bf50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Keys to Success"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9903ed3430c0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9903ed3430c00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While this analysis should not be read as a perfect formula for becoming the next UC President, the Harvard Open Data Project hopes that it provides a useful roadmap for what general strategies tend to be correlated with electoral success. To review:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a3afa87871f2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a3afa87871f20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Build a great social media network to gain name recognition."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79af38a17216","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79af38a172160","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on the freshmen through personal meetings and giveaways."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5512c0df3899","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5512c0df38990","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Don’t worry too much about endorsements."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4c210966575b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c210966575b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Try to spend your money on points #1 and #2 as much as possible."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"4e65b2bbb4a7","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"204e467f1c50","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"204e467f1c500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven reflection on what worked — and what didn’t — in the 2016 Undergraduate Council campaign."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Yasmin Sachee (right) and Cameron Khansarinia won last year’s UC Presidential election, in line with HODP’s predictions.","asset":{"_ref":"image-85a4d0abac5b6b385f87178752d825027203fd36-2000x835-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"2ce271b008d7","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-30T05:00:00.000Z","slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"be080b832f0a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"4 Keys to Winning the UC Presidential Election","id":"-8d35115e-767c-5a72-97a9-3c2b7c9cba27","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"41e2841561525283df7894e83ac101a3","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":242},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9a08dd1f6a87","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher have a slight advantage in total official page likes.","asset":{"_id":"image-bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e-700x433-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj8LQI","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:02:17Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:02:17Z","assetId":"bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6166281755196306,"height":433,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#7c5444","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940405","foreground":"#fff","population":3.83,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":10.65,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#c0c4bb","foreground":"#000","population":0.03,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#e77b84","foreground":"#000","population":0.05,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9e716a","foreground":"#fff","population":0.3,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":10.65,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im3.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e-700x433.png","sha1hash":"bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e","size":26555,"uploadId":"IHGxpoToSROebccTcZYcF3YhB6zfRGSY","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e-700x433.png","id":"image-bd65cda07f3aa6d2a66c0e15e1831d4f11c7916e-700x433-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"f71cbbf7c8b79bdc0bc075b016a6be99","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1190},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher have a slight advantage in total official page likes."},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95e0c3164feb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, many Harvard students will change their profile pictures in support of the candidates. We took the sum of all of the likes on supporting profile pictures, counted the number of students who posted in support of a ticket, and calculated the median number of likes per supporting post on Facebook. "},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"On all three measures of social media presence, Zhang and Boucher blew away the competition"},{"_key":"95e0c3164feb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", most significantly with their massive advantage in total likes, as seen below. In addition, on all three measures, the results were consistent with both total page likes and our earlier polls, with Zhang, Agbafe, and Healy in that order."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5f990f29627f","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a massive advantage in number of total likes on supporting posts.","asset":{"_id":"image-6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5-700x431-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj8XOY","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:04:37Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:04:37Z","assetId":"6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6241299303944317,"height":431,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":2.07,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.15,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cfc0c4","foreground":"#000","population":0.08,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cd9597","foreground":"#000","population":0.22,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#974448","foreground":"#fff","population":0.18,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.15,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im4.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5-700x431.png","sha1hash":"6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5","size":29335,"uploadId":"xq7b4AboAfVBKYCYY6D5okV9pRTxEks4","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5-700x431.png","id":"image-6f50bfd80f49f1f12dcb3a88a411e45ddf67c8d5-700x431-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"faf7077c7bd972f082d25d810085617c","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":858},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher enjoy a massive advantage in number of total likes on supporting posts."},{"_key":"a516baef0322","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher see a smaller, but still very large, advantage in average likes per supporting post.","asset":{"_id":"image-f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2-700x432-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj8ele","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:05:25Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:05:25Z","assetId":"f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6203703703703705,"height":432,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940407","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#8c0407","foreground":"#fff","population":0.46,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.93,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d8bdbf","foreground":"#000","population":0.08,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d49492","foreground":"#000","population":0.17,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#8d4e51","foreground":"#fff","population":0.02,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":8.93,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im5.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2-700x432.png","sha1hash":"f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2","size":27166,"uploadId":"66Jx9JS08pjgEHVFtriyGkGYbKpfbQ20","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2-700x432.png","id":"image-f8354ab489e842b6f8ea1719cf7b4f0ff59a88d2-700x432-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"e1fb31557352e0985883ea8065efd961","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1421},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher see a smaller, but still very large, advantage in average likes per supporting post."},{"_key":"46bd69c01a95","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"46bd69c01a950","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f06e9d7c028b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f06e9d7c028b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Potential Issues With These Metrics"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h3"},{"_key":"a4833b041321","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a4833b0413210","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Although the results above seem decisive, they only use Facebook data. Last year, the winning ticket of Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia took advantage of other social media, including a significant investment in buying a Snapchat filter for their campaign. This year, it is plausible that we failed to measure some media presence on other services. For example, some students may have seen the Agbafe-Bervell ticket’s Tinder bot."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b8978142a8a3","_type":"figure","alt":"Agbafe and Bervell used Tinder to attract voters in this year’s campaign.","asset":{"_id":"image-6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b-540x929-jpg","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmoVdyf","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:06:15Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:06:15Z","assetId":"6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b","extension":"jpg","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":0.581270182992465,"height":929,"width":540},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/jpeg;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#293c53","foreground":"#fff","population":1.66,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6e701e","foreground":"#fff","population":5.73,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6e701e","foreground":"#fff","population":5.73,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#bdcf98","foreground":"#000","population":1.08,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#dcc38a","foreground":"#000","population":2.7,"title":"#fff"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#ab9165","foreground":"#fff","population":5.02,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#28d3c6","foreground":"#000","population":0.15,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/jpeg","originalFilename":"im6.jpg","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b-540x929.jpg","sha1hash":"6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b","size":103741,"uploadId":"SFuptfNzTXiKWcmrLz4h8atxaSWjtn2O","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b-540x929.jpg","id":"image-6039e20426b16f81e5074047600aa6d63d4a6a1b-540x929-jpg","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"43eefbe0725f53dde10ca7c8a7a751a0","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":788},"parent":null},"caption":"Agbafe and Bervell used Tinder to attract voters in this year’s campaign."},{"_key":"7d4ea720e7fb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7d4ea720e7fb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to new media, we cannot rule out the possibility of “bubbles.” That means the possibility of relatively small groups of voters liking all of each other’s supporting posts, thus creating thousands of likes in support of a candidate with just a small number of people. Likes in themselves do not necessarily indicate full endorsements, but they are often indicative of support."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e869d5a4b612","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e869d5a4b6120","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Finally, candidates may have solid name recognition offline, too. Healy is well-known on campus for his work with the Open Campus Initiative, a group that brings controversial speakers to campus in its efforts to push freedom of speech at Harvard. Government concentrators may know Agbafe as the co-star of Gov 30’s lecture videos, along with Professor Paul Peterson. While neither of these relate directly to campaigns, outside name recognition may help the candidates in this week’s election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2eaf74f88430","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2eaf74f884300","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"2eaf74f884301","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Our research on social media presence seems to indicate an advantage for Zhang and Boucher, with Agbafe-Bervell following, and Healy-Thakker in third."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"89c726304e0a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"89c726304e0a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"51ff57154394","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"51ff571543940","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Point to a Zhang-Boucher Win"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"1459ba6705b8","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1459ba6705b80","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"1459ba6705b81","_type":"span","marks":["d9b87f88852b"],"text":"In a postmortem of last year’s election, HODP found that the number of endorsements was generally not very correlated with victory"},{"_key":"1459ba6705b82","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". However, given this year’s significant disparity between the candidates, endorsements by UC representatives on Facebook are certainly worth mentioning."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d9b87f88852b","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"27bb2755-5196-4731-aa9a-927851e9b7a5","_type":"project","_rev":"7lJidvhe1bfnzzVAmollp0","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:24:56Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T06:28:43Z","body":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"6724538c7c5b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The campaign for President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council kicks off this week! At the time of writing, "},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b1","_type":"span","marks":["634a8da32e48"],"text":"three tickets have thrown their hats in the ring"},{"_key":"6724538c7c5b2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":": Catherine Zhang & Nick Boucher, Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, and Conor Healy & Parth Thakker. It’s shaping up to be a competitive race."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"634a8da32e48","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeNa6e1xt9D8oXnYv8G6C7B9xY3WQvYiN8kiq9IyISkrduNfw/viewform"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1982c24f70e5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1982c24f70e50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"So what can the tickets do to set themselves apart?"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ceb31331e51d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d1","_type":"span","marks":["fd42ab003c3c"],"text":"the Harvard Open Data Project (HODP) successfully predicted the outcome of the presidential election"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", and in doing so, we gathered data to form hypotheses about what strategies correlated with a ticket’s electoral success. "},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d3","_type":"span","marks":["ef621d081710"],"text":"Chris Kuang of HODP provided a detailed analysis of the results"},{"_key":"ceb31331e51d4","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Here, we’ll recap our biggest findings and how this year’s candidates can use them to their advantage."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"fd42ab003c3c","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"1d6c6893-8cbc-449c-ac60-3674f9001a62","_type":"reference"}},{"_key":"ef621d081710","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"78a467c31a14","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"78a467c31a140","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For reference, "},{"_key":"78a467c31a141","_type":"span","marks":["3bf0b1376686"],"text":"here are the vote tallies from last year:"},{"_key":"78a467c31a142","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"3bf0b1376686","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"753c38065378","_type":"figure","alt":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander.","asset":{"_ref":"image-46cf2c6b9dd073c052f0f16103995f7d78550cd9-524x571-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Last year’s presidential results. Yasmin & Cameron finished first, followed by Eduardo & Alex, Scott & Evan, and Grant & Alexander."},{"_key":"8340814f542d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8340814f542d0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"a51d6c4eb728","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a51d6c4eb7280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social Media Matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae31","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7da56c4cae310","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Social media outreach seems to be one of the most important factors — if not "},{"_key":"7da56c4cae311","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"the"},{"_key":"7da56c4cae312","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" most important — in predicting a candidate’s success in the UC presidential election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"ded8349cb715","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ded8349cb7150","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, we measured social media outreach in two ways. We looked at the total number of likes on a ticket’s official Facebook page. We also considered the sum of likes on profile pictures featuring a ticket’s "},{"_key":"ded8349cb7151","_type":"span","marks":["8d708df1dee8"],"text":"promotional “frame” on Facebook"},{"_key":"ded8349cb7152","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"8d708df1dee8","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://developers.facebook.com/products/camera-effects/frame-studio/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"be4f8462abf60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Ranking the tickets by either of these metrics gives "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf61","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"exactly the same"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf62","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" "},{"_key":"be4f8462abf63","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"order"},{"_key":"be4f8462abf64","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" as the actual vote tallies (that is, the greater vote-getters also got more social media engagement every single time). Social media success is very strongly correlated with electoral success — but let’s not forget that correlation does not imply causation."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d656beeb8e20","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on official Facebook pages.","asset":{"_ref":"image-dbae17b3526cfeb949d90e1dab88547fa4902285-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on official Facebook pages."},{"_key":"947ee2170142","_type":"figure","alt":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign.","asset":{"_ref":"image-f9b4bb8fe0405fbdd571c392faf2b8755b418796-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Total likes on profile photos supporting the campaign."},{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5b2fa45ecac70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"If you create a ranking of the tickets based on either of these metrics, it produces the exact final ranking of the candidates in the actual election results. (Now is likely a good time to remind readers that correlation does not imply causation.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"edb63e7ff2a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Our analysis indicates that gaining serious name recognition through both a popular Facebook page and getting a wide network of Harvard students to change their profile pictures in support is key to winning the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"f819be327c28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f819be327c280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on Freshmen"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb1","_type":"span","marks":["bd26cb5a449e"],"text":"Freshmen consistently turn out at far higher rates than upperclassmen do in UC elections"},{"_key":"59f0bce9eddb2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", both in the fall and the midterms. While we don’t have stratified turnout data by class for last year’s presidential election, the only class year that Yasmin and Cameron won were the freshmen, so it is reasonable to infer that the freshmen had high turnout relative to other classes. In addition, from qualitative interviews with fellow students, upperclassmen are far more likely to already know a candidate personally and have made up their mind. On the other hand, it is likely that fewer freshmen will know the candidates on a personal level and will be more open to consider all candidates."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"bd26cb5a449e","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"63411814-34d5-445f-9a7c-8e4a3aa294a2","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e08d02be7d26","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e08d02be7d260","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"For these reasons, personally meeting freshmen seems to provide the greatest return on investment for a candidate’s time. In last year’s (relatively unscientific) HODP election poll, the ranking of candidates among freshman exactly matched the final election results. In addition, the winning pair, Yasmin Sachee and Cameron Khansarinia, knocked on freshman doors, though they were not the only candidate pair to do so."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"424f9fed4218","_type":"figure","alt":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class.","asset":{"_ref":"image-790d0829b39d1c0fd5e77064d94bb7d89d66fd76-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Responses to a 2016 HODP pre-election poll asking for a student’s intended first choice ticket, stratified by class."},{"_key":"98cfec411ebf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"98cfec411ebf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Upperclassmen matter, too, but there’s some evidence that spending additional time with freshmen can yield great results. This conclusion is based on the traditionally higher freshman turnout and the decreased likelihood of freshmen having made up their minds through personal relationships."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"ab9ea1189ad20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Endorsements Don’t Really Matter"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4a34139cfb720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When campaigning to be president of the UC, it might seem natural to spend time schmoozing with members of the UC and leaders of student organizations. While this is likely valuable to some degree, endorsements were not a great predictor of final election results. Last year, a ranking of endorsements from student organizations (weighted based on organization size) would have predicted a win by Eduardo Gonzalez and Alex Popovski, who ultimately came in second. A ranking of endorsements from UC representatives would have predicted a win by Scott Ely and Evan Bonsall, who finished in third. Finally, "},{"_key":"4a34139cfb721","_type":"span","marks":["5755216b643d"],"text":"The Crimson Editorial Board endorsed Eduardo and Alex"},{"_key":"4a34139cfb722","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" last fall."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"5755216b643d","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/11/14/uc-endorsement-2016/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4370830c499e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4370830c499e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, none of these metrics would have correctly predicted the results of the election, though this does not necessarily imply there isn’t a causal relationship between endorsements and voting."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5eb7547d2ed0","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations.","asset":{"_ref":"image-0b3a9ce30bdd1e8f3af25cecf8b0b87be5c1c62c-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements as a total number of members in endorsing organizations."},{"_key":"6ca0894d5b66","_type":"figure","alt":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016.","asset":{"_ref":"image-416598b0e59c5c6d66f891b0c732b77986363902-1440x360-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Endorsements from sitting UC representatives in fall 2016."},{"_key":"1311161179a0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"1311161179a00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates should be cautious not to focus too much on wooing student leaders, and instead focus on individual voters."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"12ea94b4c8b10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Money Allocation Matters More than Total Spending"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c3b1713c40b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"When we think about national politics, we often think that campaign spending strongly correlates with electoral success. However, this relationship does not necessarily hold for Harvard’s UC presidential elections. Last year, the winning pair was third out of four tickets in total spending."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Candidates are permitted to spend up to $200 on their campaigns, and "},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba1","_type":"span","marks":["70967d2b89ad"],"text":"two pairs were within $5 of this amount last year."},{"_key":"8ca69ae1eeba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" However, the winning pair was the one that spent the bulk of their funding on social media and a gimmick targeted at freshmen. Yasmin and Cameron spent a total of $163.73 on their campaign, $78.23 of which was spent on social media campaigns (Snapchat filter and Facebook promotions). Although they were third in total spending, they led the pack in spending on social media, which, as we’ve seen above, is strongly correlated with electoral success."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"70967d2b89ad","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2016/12/9/uc-candidates-spending-breakdown/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4baba840e0a5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4baba840e0a50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, Yasmin and Cameron spent $30 on puzzle pieces, which they gave out to voters, particularly freshmen. This giveaway may have helped them at the ballot box. It’s worth noting that the second-place ticket, Eduardo and Alex, was the only other campaign to come up with a free giveaway gimmick (stickers, in this case)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"45c7362f6676","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"45c7362f66760","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Yasmin and Cameron’s smart move to focus their funding on social media, name recognition, and freshmen may have contributed to their success in the election."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"d3d99a798bf5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d3d99a798bf50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Keys to Success"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"9903ed3430c0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9903ed3430c00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"While this analysis should not be read as a perfect formula for becoming the next UC President, the Harvard Open Data Project hopes that it provides a useful roadmap for what general strategies tend to be correlated with electoral success. To review:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a3afa87871f2","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a3afa87871f20","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Build a great social media network to gain name recognition."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79af38a17216","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79af38a172160","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Focus on the freshmen through personal meetings and giveaways."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5512c0df3899","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5512c0df38990","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Don’t worry too much about endorsements."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4c210966575b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c210966575b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Try to spend your money on points #1 and #2 as much as possible."}],"level":1,"listItem":"bullet","markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"4e65b2bbb4a7","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"204e467f1c50","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"204e467f1c500","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"A data-driven reflection on what worked — and what didn’t — in the 2016 Undergraduate Council campaign."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"Yasmin Sachee (right) and Cameron Khansarinia won last year’s UC Presidential election, in line with HODP’s predictions.","asset":{"_ref":"image-85a4d0abac5b6b385f87178752d825027203fd36-2000x835-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"2ce271b008d7","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-10-30T05:00:00.000Z","slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"},"subjects":[{"_key":"be080b832f0a","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"4 Keys to Winning the UC Presidential Election","id":"-8d35115e-767c-5a72-97a9-3c2b7c9cba27","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"41e2841561525283df7894e83ac101a3","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":242},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"4-keys-to-winning-the-uc-presidential-election"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"89df866600d7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"89df866600d70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"At the time of writing, Zhang and Boucher had 23 endorsements from sitting UC representatives, Agbafe and Bervell had just 1, and Healy and Thakker had none. We excluded the candidates themselves from these counts. Not counting the candidates or current President and VP Sachee and Khansarinia (who are required to be officially neutral), 20 representatives did not endorse a candidate on Facebook."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c1bd1229f938","_type":"figure","alt":"Zhang and Boucher have a massive lead in UC endorsements on Facebook: they have 23 to Agbafe-Bervell’s 1.","asset":{"_id":"image-2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8-700x432-png","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj8uWk","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:08:14Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:08:14Z","assetId":"2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8","extension":"png","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1.6203703703703705,"height":432,"width":700},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/png;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":0,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#940404","foreground":"#fff","population":2.26,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":5.68,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#d9bdbb","foreground":"#000","population":0.57,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#fcdce4","foreground":"#000","population":0.01,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#908c85","foreground":"#fff","population":0.21,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#9c0404","foreground":"#fff","population":5.68,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/png","originalFilename":"im7.png","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8-700x432.png","sha1hash":"2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8","size":24580,"uploadId":"JFLum7R3zYoYVUhExSqrTcEpls0aKBwD","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8-700x432.png","id":"image-2d793549582cf5fd3acc69ca8ea58316cc2b02d8-700x432-png","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"d80cb378cf67561b588b825bc6634b76","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":557},"parent":null},"caption":"Zhang and Boucher have a massive lead in UC endorsements on Facebook: they have 23 to Agbafe-Bervell’s 1."},{"_key":"5e0c6117e463","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5e0c6117e4630","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition to endorsements by sitting UC representatives, "},{"_key":"5e0c6117e4631","_type":"span","marks":["9a21d1e78b96"],"text":"The Harvard Crimson’s editorial board endorsed Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"5e0c6117e4632","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". Last year, The Crimson’s endorsed candidates did not ultimately prevail, so while this endorsement may not propel Zhang-Boucher to victory, it certainly will not hurt their candidacy."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"9a21d1e78b96","_type":"link","href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2017/11/13/staffed-uc-election-2017/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"79792f86a852","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"79792f86a8520","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang and Boucher"},{"_key":"79792f86a8521","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":". Last year, endorsements did not seem to be a great predictor of electoral success. However, we should not ignore them entirely, and they do seem to suggest an advantage for Zhang and Boucher, again followed by Agbafe and Bervell, with Healy and Thakker in third."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0e1cfcb544a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0e1cfcb544a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e4634bb885af","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e4634bb885af0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Drumroll, please…"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"a65722872380","_type":"figure","alt":"Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher are pictured above in a campaign photo.","asset":{"_id":"image-ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e-1000x1000-jpg","_type":"sanity.imageAsset","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSj9GZq","_createdAt":"2020-08-02T02:12:02Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:12:02Z","assetId":"ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e","extension":"jpg","metadata":{"_type":"sanity.imageMetadata","dimensions":{"_type":"sanity.imageDimensions","aspectRatio":1,"height":1000,"width":1000},"hasAlpha":false,"isOpaque":true,"lqip":"data:image/jpeg;base64,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","palette":{"_type":"sanity.imagePalette","darkMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#523829","foreground":"#fff","population":1.59,"title":"#fff"},"darkVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#214060","foreground":"#fff","population":0.86,"title":"#fff"},"dominant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f9af43","foreground":"#000","population":8.2,"title":"#fff"},"lightMuted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#cdb68d","foreground":"#000","population":1.29,"title":"#fff"},"lightVibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#fcdc74","foreground":"#000","population":0,"title":"#000"},"muted":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#6092a9","foreground":"#fff","population":6.64,"title":"#fff"},"vibrant":{"_type":"sanity.imagePaletteSwatch","background":"#f9af43","foreground":"#000","population":8.2,"title":"#fff"}}},"mimeType":"image/jpeg","originalFilename":"im8.jpg","path":"images/xx0obpjv/production/ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e-1000x1000.jpg","sha1hash":"ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e","size":226185,"uploadId":"rUbjrS85hENn3EqH81rhFE9q3J8GnBkl","url":"https://cdn.sanity.io/images/xx0obpjv/production/ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e-1000x1000.jpg","id":"image-ba856421d32d292a32b2205d6d3d50620d244b7e-1000x1000-jpg","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityImageAsset","contentDigest":"1eca861de2f47e3391262f1e2580db91","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":1177},"parent":null},"caption":"Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher are pictured above in a campaign photo."},{"_key":"5971d5d4c70a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5971d5d4c70a0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"Based on our analysis, we project that Catherine Zhang and Nicholas Boucher will be elected the next President and Vice President of Harvard’s Undergraduate Council."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"5d48add7baa7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5d48add7baa70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Polls, social media, and endorsements all point heavily toward a Zhang and Boucher victory. This result would also be consistent with our "},{"_key":"5d48add7baa71","_type":"span","marks":["e6847942d5c0"],"text":"historical analysis last week"},{"_key":"5d48add7baa72","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", which showed that Zhang and Boucher’s UC experience and houses have historically correlated with victory."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e6847942d5c0","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjBGpO","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:25:07Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:33:38Z","body":[{"_key":"957368b366cf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"957368b366cf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, three tickets are vying to be the next President and Vice President of the Undergraduate Council (UC), Harvard’s top student government post. Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher have thrown their hats in the ring."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e458982d5ff90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project used surveys and social media data to "},{"_key":"e458982d5ff91","_type":"span","marks":["1c12e1f300c5"],"text":"correctly predict the outcome of the UC Presidential election"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’ll do a similar project this year (stay tuned!), but we want to take it a step further — we want to see what we can learn about the election before campaigning even starts."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"1c12e1f300c5","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c598eaf33975","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c598eaf339750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To figure out who the favorites might be heading into the campaign, we at HODP dove into past election data. Popular election of UC presidents began in 1996, but "},{"_key":"c598eaf339751","_type":"span","marks":["e18ea3ddbb65"],"text":"until 2005, presidents and vice presidents were elected separately."},{"_key":"c598eaf339752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Though there is lots of interesting data from before 2005 "},{"_key":"c598eaf339753","_type":"span","marks":["97856fe8b951"],"text":"(including a presidential campaign by CS50 Professor David Malan)"},{"_key":"c598eaf339754","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", HODP’s analysis is only based on the 2005–2016 elections, since these have the same rules as the current electoral system."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e18ea3ddbb65","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2004/12/10/glazer-nichols-elected-in-split-vote/"},{"_key":"97856fe8b951","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1997/12/4/candidates-debate-issues-pcandidates-vying-for/?page=1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7ae4a41e3051","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7ae4a41e30510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In this article, we’ll look into what past results can tell us about this year’s race."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a2ffac28ad28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a2ffac28ad280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"53d188e01af6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"53d188e01af60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experience matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f1","_type":"span","marks":["89c15a51a1bf"],"text":"According to The Harvard Crimson,"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" by 2007, no UC presidential candidate without prior UC experience had ever won. Since then, the results have been remarkably similar. The only UC outsider to win the presidency has been Samuel Clark, who in 2013 rode to power on a joke ticket that promised to resign immediately upon being elected."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"89c15a51a1bf","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2007/12/10/with-turnout-low-sundquist-sarafa-wins-uc/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC has been popularly electing presidents for 21 years. But only once, in 2013, has a presidential candidate without prior UC experience won the top spot in Harvard’s student government."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, since 2005, 11 of the 12 winning vice presidential candidates have had UC experience. The only exception was Clark’s running mate, Gus Mayopoulos."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7c0769c5b202","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c0769c5b2020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC insiders seem to dominate the presidential elections. “Insider-insider” tickets (those in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience) only constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time. That is, insider-insider tickets have won every single year besides 2013."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1d2dc80a9f92","_type":"figure","alt":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election."},{"_key":"68a0d3e33851","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"68a0d3e338510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Obviously, these results do not mean that a ticket with an outsider candidate can’t ’win. Our sample size is small, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Plus, a pair of candidates without any UC experience showed in 2013 that outsiders can win. And let’s not forget Donald Trump, who won the American Presidency in 2016 with zero prior governmental experience."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9264158705b7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9264158705b70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our findings on experience aren’t perfect, but they indicate an advantage for experienced tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"130bff6db299","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"130bff6db2990","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"130bff6db2991","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" They’re the only ticket where both candidates have served on the UC (both, in fact, are leaders on the UC’s Executive Committee). Agbafe also serves on the UC, but his running mate, Bervell, does not. Healy does not have prior UC experience, but is well known on campus from the Open Campus Initiative; his running mate, Thakker, currently serves on the UC."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a485ff95c1e4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a485ff95c1e40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f08feebc9886","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f08feebc98860","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class year matters… but less than you might think"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f9dc06e6a592","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9dc06e6a5920","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors have dominated UC elections. In 11 of the past 12 years (or 91.7% of elections), the UC President and VP have both been juniors. (In the other year, 2006, the President was a junior but the VP was a sophomore.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"50a76e162cae","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"50a76e162cae0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no non-junior has ever been elected UC President. And only once, in 2006, was a non-junior vice presidential candidate elected."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"92b9cabfee67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"92b9cabfee670","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These data would suggest that students look for UC Presidents that have spent more time at Harvard, possibly because that gives them a deeper knowledge of the institution. (Why juniors and not seniors? UC Presidential terms are for a calendar year, so seniors usually can’t run, because by the time they take office in the spring they only have 1 semester left.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"545fb50d5873","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"545fb50d58730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But the junior advantage might not be all that surprising. The vast majority (94.7%) of presidential candidates and most (81.6%) of the vice presidential candidates are juniors, so there’s a pretty limited pool of non-juniors who could win to begin with! So, to us, it’s unclear whether number of years at Harvard is a significant factor in electoral outcomes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cc071df3466","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cc071df34660","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: nobody."},{"_key":"2cc071df34661","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" This year, all six of the presidential and vice presidential candidates come from the junior class, so this class year advantage does not make an impact. It’s worth noting, though, that Parth Thakker is a social senior (originally class of ’18, now ‘19)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"279ab39e5048","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"279ab39e50480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There might be a “Quad advantage”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"055bbeab4c82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"055bbeab4c820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"HODP recorded the houses of past UC presidential and vice presidential candidates, and found that a surprisingly high number of them come from just a few houses. For example, Adams has produced 1 presidential candidate and no vice presidential candidates since 2005, and Leverett has produced 1 of each since 2005. But Currier has produced 6 presidential candidates and 4 vice presidential candidates since 2005."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cd55239dbdf","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-ae206673ace05ba18080d517a0d65adea38821f3-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"c88b1a0dcb5a","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-7b87748543f4db26ba7b6e372420e226dbb8b151-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"df6a71f21ca5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"df6a71f21ca50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Look closely and you’ll notice that candidates from the Quad houses seem to be much more successful than candidates from the river houses. Since 2005, 50% of presidential candidates from the Quad have won, while only 20% of presidential candidates from the river have won. As for Dudley House, only one presidential candidate since 2005 has run from that house, and he won!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"046abb7110f9","_type":"figure","alt":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005.","asset":{"_ref":"image-00238b4188f200902f609a83ee4b2c0ad5bb8a3e-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005."},{"_key":"5f156af63d93","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5f156af63d930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, more UC Presidents have come from the Quad than from the River, even though three times as many students live on the River. Again, we have a very small sample here, so we shouldn’t draw too many definitive conclusions from this, but there could potentially be some “quad advantage” going on. On the other hand, we found that only one 1 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the Quad — all the rest came from the River!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27823ea33d72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27823ea33d720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Given our data since 2005, it seems like the winning combo might be a presidential candidate from the Quad with a vice presidential candidate from the River."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The hypothetical “Quad advantage” gets even more interesting when you mix in the factor of UC experience. Since 2005, 10 juniors from the Quad with UC experience have run for UC President. Six of those candidates have won. Three of those candidates lost to "},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"other"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" juniors from the Quad with UC experience. The tenth candidate got 2nd place to 2013’s joke ticket. In other words:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no presidential candidate from the Quad with UC experience has ever lost to a candidate from the River (except in 2013’s wave election)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"9208718d02cc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9208718d02cc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Qualitatively, this advantage is also plausible. The Quad is well-known as a close-knit community on campus, so Quad residents might be more likely to know and vote for a UC presidential candidate from any of the 3 Quad houses. In addition, "},{"_key":"9208718d02cc1","_type":"span","marks":["acc476e19b6c"],"text":"HODP has found that the Quad consistently has higher turnout in general UC representative elections."},{"_key":"9208718d02cc2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We don’t have data on presidential elections stratified by house, but assuming that these trends hold true, that higher turnout might also explain the “Quad advantage.”"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"acc476e19b6c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/HODP%20UC%20election%20data%20analysis%2C%20fall%202017.xlsx"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As usual, our sample size is small, and it’s entirely possible that the trend we’ve seen is solely due to chance. Nonetheless, this is an interesting finding."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d420249f3a1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d420249f3a10","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"2d420249f3a11","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" If there is a “Quad advantage”, it would help the Zhang-Boucher ticket. Zhang hails from Cabot House, while Boucher lives in Mather. That’s the prized Quad-River combo discussed above! The other two tickets have all-River candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2661c22f1a97","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2661c22f1a970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb2eb635f497","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb2eb635f4970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"What we know heading into the campaign — and what we don’t"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"2c79615005b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2c79615005b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our sample is quite small, and past results don’t guarantee future ones. Plus, unexpected things can always happen in elections — if you need a reminder, just remember Trump’s election a year ago!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, with all the usual caveats, we can observe some general trends from past years that might be helpful in looking at the 2017 presidential election. "},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If you’re champing at the bit to know how this year’s election might go, early speculation based on past results might suggest a slight advantage for Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" That said, it’s still far too early to make any real predictions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d046bda8d09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d046bda8d090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How will the election actually shape up? We’ll be back next week with our second annual polls and analyses to see if we can figure that out. Stay tuned!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ca49c2b8a7e4","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"52541916baea","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52541916baea0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Trends from past UC Presidential elections, and what we can tell about this year’s contest… before campaigning even starts!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"A debate from the 2016 Undergraduate Council elections. (Photo credit: Aridenne A. Dews for the Harvard Crimson)","asset":{"_ref":"image-7d8ec5140bec95d7ddfb50e84758dd9cd4c32227-1500x899-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"b4b66d8b9951","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-11-05T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"},"subjects":[{"_key":"318b69fd6609","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Here’s What Successful UC Presidential Candidates Had in Common","id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"4d832ac77e162c87b1400c633556ae53","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":264},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9438b6da835d","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9438b6da835d0","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"After Zhang-Boucher, we will likely see Agbafe and Bervell in second place; we project Healy and Thakker to finish in third place."},{"_key":"9438b6da835d1","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" It’s worth noting that there were few apparent shifts in the campaign: while the poll was open, from Sunday through Tuesday, there was little movement in the tickets’ vote shares beyond small, noisy fluctuations."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"d216b514b557","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"d216b514b5570","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"95a3d0cf1edd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"95a3d0cf1edd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Vote Margin"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e54b20e9545c0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Readers should be cautious and remember that all forecasts have some error, including this one. In addition, given the UC’s choice of the Hare-Clark electoral system, which is a Single Transferable Vote system, the results can be a bit harder to predict. Our poll only examines first choice votes, but under the Hare-Clark system, the winner in first-choice votes may not necessarily win the election. In fact, in past years, "},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c1","_type":"span","marks":["7d9e7b9f553a"],"text":"the winner has rarely won a majority of first-choice votes"},{"_key":"e54b20e9545c2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"7d9e7b9f553a","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_id":"35165715-4275-42cc-9c3a-d3b1a0c7c553","_type":"project","_rev":"5mW8uWF9hIPL0EjKSjBGpO","_createdAt":"2020-07-31T23:25:07Z","_updatedAt":"2020-08-02T02:33:38Z","body":[{"_key":"957368b366cf","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"957368b366cf0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"This year, three tickets are vying to be the next President and Vice President of the Undergraduate Council (UC), Harvard’s top student government post. Victor Agbafe & Michael Bervell, Conor Healy & Parth Thakker, and Catherine Zhang & Nicholas Boucher have thrown their hats in the ring."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e458982d5ff90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Last year, the Harvard Open Data Project used surveys and social media data to "},{"_key":"e458982d5ff91","_type":"span","marks":["1c12e1f300c5"],"text":"correctly predict the outcome of the UC Presidential election"},{"_key":"e458982d5ff92","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":". We’ll do a similar project this year (stay tuned!), but we want to take it a step further — we want to see what we can learn about the election before campaigning even starts."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"1c12e1f300c5","_type":"internalLink","reference":{"_ref":"76362fc6-6eec-4e1d-a593-a8c16dd6f329","_type":"reference"}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c598eaf33975","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c598eaf339750","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"To figure out who the favorites might be heading into the campaign, we at HODP dove into past election data. Popular election of UC presidents began in 1996, but "},{"_key":"c598eaf339751","_type":"span","marks":["e18ea3ddbb65"],"text":"until 2005, presidents and vice presidents were elected separately."},{"_key":"c598eaf339752","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" Though there is lots of interesting data from before 2005 "},{"_key":"c598eaf339753","_type":"span","marks":["97856fe8b951"],"text":"(including a presidential campaign by CS50 Professor David Malan)"},{"_key":"c598eaf339754","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":", HODP’s analysis is only based on the 2005–2016 elections, since these have the same rules as the current electoral system."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"e18ea3ddbb65","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2004/12/10/glazer-nichols-elected-in-split-vote/"},{"_key":"97856fe8b951","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/1997/12/4/candidates-debate-issues-pcandidates-vying-for/?page=1"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7ae4a41e3051","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7ae4a41e30510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In this article, we’ll look into what past results can tell us about this year’s race."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a2ffac28ad28","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a2ffac28ad280","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"53d188e01af6","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"53d188e01af60","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Experience matters"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f1","_type":"span","marks":["89c15a51a1bf"],"text":"According to The Harvard Crimson,"},{"_key":"74f90f0fcb5f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" by 2007, no UC presidential candidate without prior UC experience had ever won. Since then, the results have been remarkably similar. The only UC outsider to win the presidency has been Samuel Clark, who in 2013 rode to power on a joke ticket that promised to resign immediately upon being elected."}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"89c15a51a1bf","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2007/12/10/with-turnout-low-sundquist-sarafa-wins-uc/"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"b0bd1eb4c1e70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The UC has been popularly electing presidents for 21 years. But only once, in 2013, has a presidential candidate without prior UC experience won the top spot in Harvard’s student government."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"blockquote"},{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"38b1d5fdc87f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"In addition, since 2005, 11 of the 12 winning vice presidential candidates have had UC experience. The only exception was Clark’s running mate, Gus Mayopoulos."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"7c0769c5b202","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"7c0769c5b2020","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"UC insiders seem to dominate the presidential elections. “Insider-insider” tickets (those in which both the presidential and vice presidential candidate have UC experience) only constitute 55.3% of the total tickets since 2005, yet they’ve won 91.7% of the time. That is, insider-insider tickets have won every single year besides 2013."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"1d2dc80a9f92","_type":"figure","alt":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election.","asset":{"_ref":"image-6213513b05b393dd4e57296723b956f9ec335c63-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Tickets in which both candidates have prior UC experience (“Insider-Insider”) tend to perform better in the presidential election."},{"_key":"68a0d3e33851","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"68a0d3e338510","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Obviously, these results do not mean that a ticket with an outsider candidate can’t ’win. Our sample size is small, and past results do not guarantee future ones. Plus, a pair of candidates without any UC experience showed in 2013 that outsiders can win. And let’s not forget Donald Trump, who won the American Presidency in 2016 with zero prior governmental experience."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"9264158705b7","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9264158705b70","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our findings on experience aren’t perfect, but they indicate an advantage for experienced tickets."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"130bff6db299","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"130bff6db2990","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"130bff6db2991","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" They’re the only ticket where both candidates have served on the UC (both, in fact, are leaders on the UC’s Executive Committee). Agbafe also serves on the UC, but his running mate, Bervell, does not. Healy does not have prior UC experience, but is well known on campus from the Open Campus Initiative; his running mate, Thakker, currently serves on the UC."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"a485ff95c1e4","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"a485ff95c1e40","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f08feebc9886","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f08feebc98860","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Class year matters… but less than you might think"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"f9dc06e6a592","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f9dc06e6a5920","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Juniors have dominated UC elections. In 11 of the past 12 years (or 91.7% of elections), the UC President and VP have both been juniors. (In the other year, 2006, the President was a junior but the VP was a sophomore.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"50a76e162cae","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"50a76e162cae0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no non-junior has ever been elected UC President. And only once, in 2006, was a non-junior vice presidential candidate elected."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"92b9cabfee67","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"92b9cabfee670","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"These data would suggest that students look for UC Presidents that have spent more time at Harvard, possibly because that gives them a deeper knowledge of the institution. (Why juniors and not seniors? UC Presidential terms are for a calendar year, so seniors usually can’t run, because by the time they take office in the spring they only have 1 semester left.)"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"545fb50d5873","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"545fb50d58730","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But the junior advantage might not be all that surprising. The vast majority (94.7%) of presidential candidates and most (81.6%) of the vice presidential candidates are juniors, so there’s a pretty limited pool of non-juniors who could win to begin with! So, to us, it’s unclear whether number of years at Harvard is a significant factor in electoral outcomes."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cc071df3466","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2cc071df34660","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: nobody."},{"_key":"2cc071df34661","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" This year, all six of the presidential and vice presidential candidates come from the junior class, so this class year advantage does not make an impact. It’s worth noting, though, that Parth Thakker is a social senior (originally class of ’18, now ‘19)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"279ab39e5048","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"279ab39e50480","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"f94ad2e8929b0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"There might be a “Quad advantage”"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"055bbeab4c82","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"055bbeab4c820","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"HODP recorded the houses of past UC presidential and vice presidential candidates, and found that a surprisingly high number of them come from just a few houses. For example, Adams has produced 1 presidential candidate and no vice presidential candidates since 2005, and Leverett has produced 1 of each since 2005. But Currier has produced 6 presidential candidates and 4 vice presidential candidates since 2005."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2cd55239dbdf","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-ae206673ace05ba18080d517a0d65adea38821f3-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"c88b1a0dcb5a","_type":"figure","alt":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house.","asset":{"_ref":"image-7b87748543f4db26ba7b6e372420e226dbb8b151-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"The number of vice presidential candidates and winners by house."},{"_key":"df6a71f21ca5","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"df6a71f21ca50","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Look closely and you’ll notice that candidates from the Quad houses seem to be much more successful than candidates from the river houses. Since 2005, 50% of presidential candidates from the Quad have won, while only 20% of presidential candidates from the river have won. As for Dudley House, only one presidential candidate since 2005 has run from that house, and he won!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"046abb7110f9","_type":"figure","alt":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005.","asset":{"_ref":"image-00238b4188f200902f609a83ee4b2c0ad5bb8a3e-700x432-png","_type":"reference"},"caption":"Despite the considerably greater student population and number of candidates on the river, the Quad has actually produced more UC presidents since 2005."},{"_key":"5f156af63d93","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5f156af63d930","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, more UC Presidents have come from the Quad than from the River, even though three times as many students live on the River. Again, we have a very small sample here, so we shouldn’t draw too many definitive conclusions from this, but there could potentially be some “quad advantage” going on. On the other hand, we found that only one 1 of the last 12 vice presidential winners came from the Quad — all the rest came from the River!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"27823ea33d72","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"27823ea33d720","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Given our data since 2005, it seems like the winning combo might be a presidential candidate from the Quad with a vice presidential candidate from the River."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"The hypothetical “Quad advantage” gets even more interesting when you mix in the factor of UC experience. Since 2005, 10 juniors from the Quad with UC experience have run for UC President. Six of those candidates have won. Three of those candidates lost to "},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f1","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":"other"},{"_key":"4c995ac1c64f2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" juniors from the Quad with UC experience. The tenth candidate got 2nd place to 2013’s joke ticket. In other words:"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"e14ef0c212bc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Since 2005, no presidential candidate from the Quad with UC experience has ever lost to a candidate from the River (except in 2013’s wave election)."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h4"},{"_key":"9208718d02cc","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"9208718d02cc0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Qualitatively, this advantage is also plausible. The Quad is well-known as a close-knit community on campus, so Quad residents might be more likely to know and vote for a UC presidential candidate from any of the 3 Quad houses. In addition, "},{"_key":"9208718d02cc1","_type":"span","marks":["acc476e19b6c"],"text":"HODP has found that the Quad consistently has higher turnout in general UC representative elections."},{"_key":"9208718d02cc2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" We don’t have data on presidential elections stratified by house, but assuming that these trends hold true, that higher turnout might also explain the “Quad advantage.”"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"acc476e19b6c","_type":"link","blank":true,"href":"https://github.com/Harvard-Open-Data-Project/harvard-data/blob/master/uc-elections/HODP%20UC%20election%20data%20analysis%2C%20fall%202017.xlsx"}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"319d6ccb3ac10","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"As usual, our sample size is small, and it’s entirely possible that the trend we’ve seen is solely due to chance. Nonetheless, this is an interesting finding."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2d420249f3a1","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2d420249f3a10","_type":"span","marks":["strong","em"],"text":"Advantage: Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"2d420249f3a11","_type":"span","marks":["em"],"text":" If there is a “Quad advantage”, it would help the Zhang-Boucher ticket. Zhang hails from Cabot House, while Boucher lives in Mather. That’s the prized Quad-River combo discussed above! The other two tickets have all-River candidates."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"2661c22f1a97","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2661c22f1a970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"fb2eb635f497","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"fb2eb635f4970","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"What we know heading into the campaign — and what we don’t"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"2c79615005b9","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"2c79615005b90","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"All in all, our sample is quite small, and past results don’t guarantee future ones. Plus, unexpected things can always happen in elections — if you need a reminder, just remember Trump’s election a year ago!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"But, with all the usual caveats, we can observe some general trends from past years that might be helpful in looking at the 2017 presidential election. "},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd1","_type":"span","marks":["strong"],"text":"If you’re champing at the bit to know how this year’s election might go, early speculation based on past results might suggest a slight advantage for Zhang-Boucher."},{"_key":"c271bf68d7dd2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" That said, it’s still far too early to make any real predictions."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"4d046bda8d09","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"4d046bda8d090","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"How will the election actually shape up? We’ll be back next week with our second annual polls and analyses to see if we can figure that out. Stay tuned!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"categories":[{"_key":"ca49c2b8a7e4","_ref":"6e40d903-3845-4d26-9e73-529a3fdeb70d","_type":"reference"}],"excerpt":[{"_key":"52541916baea","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"52541916baea0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Trends from past UC Presidential elections, and what we can tell about this year’s contest… before campaigning even starts!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","mainImage":{"_type":"mainImage","alt":"A debate from the 2016 Undergraduate Council elections. (Photo credit: Aridenne A. Dews for the Harvard Crimson)","asset":{"_ref":"image-7d8ec5140bec95d7ddfb50e84758dd9cd4c32227-1500x899-png","_type":"reference"}},"members":[{"_key":"b4b66d8b9951","_type":"projectMember","person":{"_ref":"589bc38f-28f0-48ba-9153-8d647c1e9d0a","_type":"reference"},"roles":["editor"]}],"publishedAt":"2017-11-05T07:00:00.000Z","relatedProjects":[],"slug":{"_type":"slug","current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"},"subjects":[{"_key":"318b69fd6609","_ref":"c4a3e461-ea18-4002-8a56-80500bfe17c2","_type":"reference"}],"title":"Here’s What Successful UC Presidential Candidates Had in Common","id":"-d91307ad-fe52-52ec-ab5e-77f4779c05a2","children":[],"internal":{"type":"SanityProject","contentDigest":"4d832ac77e162c87b1400c633556ae53","owner":"gatsby-source-sanity","counter":264},"parent":null,"__gatsby_resolved":{"slug":{"current":"here-s-what-successful-uc-presidential-candidates-had-in-common"}}}}],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"5a8f95f5cfc0","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"5a8f95f5cfc00","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Based on a 99% confidence interval we calculated using our raw polling data, we predict that Zhang and Boucher will win between 59.9% and 72.5% of the first-choice votes. The confidence intervals for Agbafe-Bervell’s and Healy-Thakker’s vote totals overlap, so the polls do not clearly indicate which ticket will win 2nd place — but our other metrics suggest that Agbafe-Bervell have the edge."}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"455de9856e9e","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"455de9856e9e0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":""}],"markDefs":[],"style":"normal"},{"_key":"73bc3828168a","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"73bc3828168a0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Check back after the election!"}],"markDefs":[],"style":"h2"},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba","_type":"block","children":[{"_key":"752ff777e3ba0","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":"Once the polls close and the winner is announced, "},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba1","_type":"span","marks":["d57843352b61"],"text":"check our blog"},{"_key":"752ff777e3ba2","_type":"span","marks":[],"text":" for a follow-up analysis, where we’ll see what parts of our methodology worked and which fell flat. Thanks for reading!"}],"markDefs":[{"_key":"d57843352b61","_type":"link","href":"https://medium.com/harvard-open-data-project"}],"style":"normal"}],"layout":"default","members":[{"_key":"79905a9186c1","person":{"image":{"crop":null,"hotspot":null,"asset":{"_id":"image-62349ab69101cca7b5119d06cc55062a35c31219-250x250-png"}},"name":"Stephen Moon","slug":{"current":"stephen-moon"}},"roles":["editor"]}]}},"pageContext":{"id":"-95f94838-cb2d-5fda-8d53-41baf852dedb"}},"staticQueryHashes":["2744905544","300934582","727047668"]}